NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (September 8th) for Rams vs. Lions Sunday Night Football

The first Sunday Night Football matchup of the year should be a good one. The Lions will host the Rams, with the Lions listed as 4.5-point home favorites. The total sits at a robust 52.5 points, which is easily the highest mark in Week 1. Both of these offenses were among the best in football last season – particularly down the stretch – so it should be chock-full of fantasy goodness.

This is also a rematch from last year’s Wild Card round, with the Lions ultimately prevailing by a single point. The Rams were arguably the better team in that matchup – they outgained Detroit by nearly 100 yards – so it will be interesting to see if they can get over the hump this year.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The top tier on this slate is dominated by receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown has established himself as one of the best receivers in all of fantasy, while the Rams have a dominant duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Let’s start with St. Brown. He finished as the No. 3 receiver in PPR formats last year and was an absolute workhorse. He racked up 29% of the team’s targets, and he was even busier during the postseason. He added 34 targets in the team’s three playoff contests, good for an average of more than 11 per game.

St. Brown’s consistency is what separates him from other fantasy receivers. He had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in 14 of 16 regular season games, and in one of the exceptions, he had nine catches for 95 yards. He really had just one game where he truly busted last season, and that was a game where Jared Goff managed just 161 passing yards with three turnovers.

St. Brown has historically been at his best when playing in Detroit’s dome. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.13, and he averaged nearly 22 DraftKings points per game in that split last season (per the Trends tool).

He starts his season with a strong matchup, with the Rams allowing the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing receivers last season. He leads the stud tier in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s a building block for Lions stacks: He has a correlation of +0.48 with Jared Goff.

While the Lions have a clear alpha receiver, things are a bit muddier with the Rams. Nakua and Kupp are both excellent players, so Matthew Stafford has a bit more at his disposal.

Still, Nakua was the clear top target in this passing attack last season. After Kupp returned to the lineup in Week 5, Nakua posted a 30% target share through the end of the season. He also racked up more air yards than Kupp, with his average depth of target (aDOT) coming nearly a full yard further downfield. Kupp still had a very healthy 25% target share, but he was the clear 1B to Nakua’s 1A.

Nakua gets a slight edge over Kupp in our projections in Week 1. His median projection is about a point higher than Kupp’s on DraftKings, while his ceiling projection is roughly two points higher. That gives him the edge in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

However, Kupp is priced at a significant discount on FanDuel. While the two players are separated by just $200 on DraftKings, Kupp is -$5,500 cheaper than Nakua on FanDuel. That’s a huge discrepancy, and it gives Kupp a slate-high 92% Bargain Rating. He easily clears Nakua in terms of projected Plus/Minus on that site, and he trails only the two quarterbacks overall.

Regardless of which Rams receiver you chose, both players square off against the team that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs last year. The Lions did make some improvements to their secondary in the offseason, but they still figure to be an exploitable matchup.

Playing both together is also viable, especially if you’re pairing them with Stafford.

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NFL DFS Midrange Picks

I’m not sure why the quarterbacks in this matchup are so cheap, but I’m certainly not complaining. Stafford and Goff may not be truly elite fantasy arms, but they’re capable of putting up huge passing totals in the right matchups. Both players have the “right matchup” on Sunday night: Stafford leads all players with a +5.1 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, while Goff is second at +4.1.

Both players are similar on paper, but Goff gets the edge from a Vegas standpoint. The Lions are currently implied for 28.5 points, and Goff has historically smashed with a comparable figure. He’s averaged 23.46 DraftKings points in that split as a member of the Lions, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +3.56. Goff also has some of the starkest home/road splits in football, so he checks all the boxes on this slate.

Conversely, Stafford will be an underdog in this matchup, which makes him a bit riskier. He’s played 14 games as a dog as a member of the Rams, and he’s 18.98 DraftKings points or fewer in nine of them. He does still have some ceiling performances in there, but he has more bust potential in that split.

Playing both QBs is a no-brainer for cash games. They’re too cheap for QBs in the single-game format, and they easily lead the slate in projected Plus/Minus. They’re also very strong tournament options, though they’re not as mandatory in that format.

Next up are the running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs and Kyren Williams were breakout stars in 2023. Williams led the league with an average of 95.3 rushing yards per game, while Gibbs was the No. 8 RB in PPR formats as a rookie.

From a matchup standpoint, neither player is in a particularly good spot. These defenses were significantly better against the run than the pass last season: the Lions were fourth in rushing EPA against, while the Rams were 13th. The Lions added a massive defensive tackle in D.J. Reader this offseason, so they could be even more stout in 2024.

Williams is also going to face more competition for touches in 2024. The Rams added Blake Corum in the third round of the draft, and he’s going to steal more touches than the Rams’ backups did last year. Add in the fact that Williams is also going to be working on special teams, and it seems unlikely he will duplicate his monster workload from last year.

Gibbs wasn’t the only Lions’ rookie to put up big numbers as a rookie. Sam LaPorta finished as the No. 1 fantasy tight end, which is virtually unheard of. Rookie tight ends tend to take a long time to break out, and even the best tight ends have historically struggled in their first year.

LaPorta could pick up right where he left off in Week 1. The Rams allowed the seventh-most PPR points to opposing tight ends last season, and he scored a touchdown against them in their postseason matchup. LaPorta was quiet overall – he had just three targets – but he followed that up with double-digit targets in his final two postseason contests. Overall, expect him to be a big part of the Lions’ passing attack once again.

David Montgomery is the Lions’ other running back, and while he’s not as explosive as Gibbs, he’s arguably the better value on this slate. He has a superior projected Plus/Minus, particularly on FanDuel. He’s -$2,000 cheaper than Gibbs, and his lack of pass-catching upside isn’t nearly as important on that site. His +4.08 projected Plus/Minus is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

When both Gibbs and Montgomery were available last season, they split the workload nearly down the middle. Montgomery had the edge in terms of rushing share, and that was particularly true near the goal line. He had 66% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, while Gibbs was at merely 28%.

Montgomery is definitely a threat to punch in a touchdown vs. the Rams given their massive implied team total. No team averaged more rushing touchdowns per game than the Lions last season (1.7).

This feels like a big season for Jameson Williams. It’s his third year after being drafted with the 12th pick in 2022, but he’s yet to play a full season. He was recovering from a major injury in his rookie season, and he missed four games due to a suspension as a sophomore. He’s yet to live up to the billing, but he’ll be the Lions’ clear No. 2 receiver in 2024.

On paper, Williams gives the Lions the deep speed that the rest of their offense is lacking. His 4.39 40-yard dash puts him in the 95th percentile at the position, and he reeled off countless big plays during his time at Alabama. With more opportunities in 2024, he could be poised for a breakout season.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• DeMarcus Robinson ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Robinson is the Rams No. 3 receiver, and no team ran more three-receiver sets than the Rams last season. He should be on the field a bunch, making him too cheap for just $7,000 on FanDuel.
• Blake Corum ($4,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – It remains to be seen just how involved Corum will be vs. the Lions. However, he seems likely to start the year as more of a change of pace back, with the potential to earn more touches as the season progresses. He’s too pricy for this slate.
• Kickers & Defenses – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers should garner more attention than the defenses given this game’s massive total.
• Colby Parkinson ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – With Tyler Higbee on the shelf, Parkinson will serve as the Rams’ starting tight end. That gives him some viability at his current price tags.
• Kalif Raymond ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Raymond will be the Lions’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s been productive at times throughout his career. If Williams falters, there’s an opportunity for Raymond to carve out a decent role.
• Tutu Atwell ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Atwell is a pure boom-or-bust threat due to his game-breaking speed. There’s no guarantee he will see many snaps, but he only needs one to potentially break off a long touchdown.
• Davis Allen ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – The Rams’ TE2 for Week 1.
• Brock Wright ($1,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The Lions’ TE2 for Week 1.

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