After a banger of an opener, the NFL heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil for the first time on Friday. The Packers and Eagles will square off in a neutral site game between NFC Contenders. The Eagles are listed as slim two-point favorites, while the total sits at a robust 49.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This is the rare slate where a non-quarterback checks in with the highest salary on DraftKings. That honor goes to A.J. Brown, who is coming off a phenomenal season in 2023. He was the No. 5 receiving in PPR scoring through 17 weeks, and he finished with a career-best 106 catches for 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns. From Week 3 through Week 8, Brown had a stretch of six consecutive games with at least 127 receiving yards, and he added five total scores.
After serving as a 1A to Devonta Smith’s 1B in 2022, Brown established himself as the clear alpha receiver in Philly. He had a 30% target share – the sixth-highest mark in the league – and he gobbled up 41% of the team’s air yards.
Still, it’s hard to get excited about paying $11,000 for him on DraftKings. He trails the quarterbacks pretty significantly in median and ceiling projection, and he owns a negative projected Plus/Minus. He’s a stronger option on FanDuel, where he owns an 89% Bargain Rating.
Jalen Hurts will be throwing to Brown for the third consecutive season, and he had a bit of a disappointing year in 2024. His fantasy production was still elite thanks to 15 rushing touchdowns, his third straight year with at least 10 scores. However, his production as a passer dropped significantly from 2022. His adjusted yards per attempt dipped from 8.4 to 6.8, while he averaged nearly 20 fewer passing yards per game. His interception total also spiked from six to 15.
The Eagles brought in a new offensive coordinator this offseason, and Kellen Moore will look to get Hurts and the offense back on track. Their full-season numbers were still strong – seventh in points per game, eighth in yards – but they fell off a cliff down the stretch. It’s still a bit unclear what Moore’s offense will look like, but it should feature a fast tempo and plenty of presnap motion. Those are good things for fantasy production.
Ultimately, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Hurts in this spot. Hurts leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 1 in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus by a wide margin. He should garner the most ownership on the slate, but he’s a very tough fade.
While Hurts waned a bit down the stretch, Jordan Love established himself as a legit superstar. From Week 11 on, he ranked first in the league in EPA per attempt, passing yards, total touchdowns, and TD:INT ratio.
From a fantasy perspective, Love averaged 21.2 DraftKings points over his final eight regular season contests. He carried that production into the postseason, racking up 22.78 DraftKings points vs. the Cowboys before a slightly disappointing 16.75 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers. Overall, he scored 17.5 or more fantasy points in eight of his final 10 games.
It remains to be seen if Love can keep that level of production and consistency going, but he’s in an elite spot to do so in Week 1. The Eagles were an unmitigated disaster defensively in 2023. They were 28th in dropback EPA against, and they allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position. Only the Commanders were worse, giving Love a slate-best +2.8 Opponent Plus/Minus.
There’s no guarantee the Eagles’ defense will be that bad again in 2024 – they made some significant changes in the offseason – but Love still stands out as a fantastic option. He’s second only to Hurts in median and ceiling projections, as well as projected Plus/Minus.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
This matchup features two big-name running backs who changed teams in the offseason. Saquon Barkley left the Giants for the divisional-rival Eagles, while Josh Jacobs will be the Packers new starting running back.
Barkley has long been one of the most talented runners in football, but he’s been plagued by a dreadful Giants’ offensive line. They were 31st in ESPN’s run block win rate in 2023, while the Eagles were No. 1 in that department. Philly will have to replace star center Jason Kelce, but this still figures to be a really good unit.
The Eagles were ninth in rushing yards per game last season, with D’Andre Swift racking up 1,049 yards and six touchdowns. The touchdowns were the only thing that kept him from being a top-tier fantasy running back. If Barkley can score at a higher rate in 2024 – and Hurts stops vulturing so many touchdowns near the goal line – he could be poised for a massive season.
Jacobs led the NFL in rushing yards two years ago, but his production fell off a cliff in his final year with the Raiders. He averaged 35 fewer rushing yards per game, and he averaged 1.4 fewer yards per carry.
Moving to the Packers should help him bounce back. Their offensive line isn’t quite as good as run blocking as the Eagles, but the Packers should set him up with significantly more scoring opportunities. He should also see fewer stacked boxes than he did playing alongside Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O’Connell.
Jacobs should also feature as the Packers’ workhorse early in the year. A.J. Dillon will miss the year with a season-ending injury, while MarShawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson are both questionable. If neither player is able to go, Jacobs could be on the field for most of the game.
DeVonta Smith is sandwiched in between Barkley and Jacobs on DraftKings, and he’s a boom-or-bust type of player. He had five games with at least 22.9 PPR points last season, but he also had five games where he failed to crack double-figures.
That said, his best game of the year was his last one. He saw 12 targets vs. the Buccaneers in the playoffs, and he finished with eight grabs for 148 yards. Like Brown, Smith is a better pure value on FanDuel, but he has some upside across the industry.
The biggest headache on this slate is going to be choosing between the Packers’ receivers. They have four different options priced between $5,400 and $6,800 on DraftKings: Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks. The Eagles allowed the most PPR points to opposing receivers last season, so we’re going to want to get some exposure to this group.
Watson missed time at the end of the regular season, but all four players were available for the team’s two playoff contests. Doubs easily paced the group in each metric, leading the quartet in route participation, target share, and air yards. With that in mind, it makes sense that he’s the priciest option.
However, our projections see things a bit differently. We have Reed projected for the most fantasy points, so he stands out as the best value of the bunch.
Watson also stands out as an intriguing flier on DraftKings, where he owns a 96% Bargain Rating. Even though his snaps were down in the postseason, he remains the team’s top big-play threat.
Wicks is the FanDuel special. He’s priced at a paltry $6,500, which gives him the top Bargain Rating on that site. For comparison, he’s -$500 cheaper than the Eagles’ No. 2 running back, so it’s an egregious misprice. He trails only the two quarterbacks in projected FanDuel Plus/Minus, so he’s an elite value on that site.
Ultimately, all four of these options are in play until we see otherwise. Using SimLabs to identify to the best leverage options in the group makes a ton of sense for GPPs.
Dallas Goedert rounds out this tier, and he has the best individual matchup of the Eagles’ pass-catchers. The Packers were a bit worse against tight ends than they were against receivers, giving Goedert an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.8 on DraftKings.
Goedert did miss some time last year, but he was a bit part of the Eagles’ passing attack when available. He posted a target share of just under 20%, and he was at 20% the year prior. He’s not the most exciting selection, but he has the potential to pay off this salary.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kickers & Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format. This game has a massive total, so the defenses will probably not garner much attention.
- Luke Musgrave ($4,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Musgrave is another pass-catcher to add to the Packers’ pu pu platter. Musgrave had a healthy 14% target share before suffering an injury last season, but his $9,000 salary on FanDuel is way too high.
- Kenneth Gainwell ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): The Eagles employed a committee at running back last year, but I don’t expect to see much Gainwell after signing Saquon.
- Jahan Dotson ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): The Eagles traded for Dotson during the preseason to serve as their third receiver. A first-round pick in 2022, he’s an interesting buy-low candidate.
- Tucker Kraft ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Kraft is questionable heading into this matchup, and he shouldn’t play a ton with a healthy Musgrave in front of him regardless.
- Emanuel Wilson ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Make sure to monitor the status of Wilson and Lloyd heading into kickoff. We tentatively have Wilson projected as the backup, which makes him a somewhat viable value.
- Will Shipley ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Shipley was the Eagles fourth-rounder in the 2024 draft, and he has solid athletic measurables. There’s a chance he supplants Gainwell as the Eagles’ backup RB.
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