The NFL season kicks off with a bang on Thursday with an AFC Championship rematch. The Chiefs will host the Ravens, with Kansas City listed as three-point home favorites. KC was able to secure a road win over the Ravens in the playoffs last year, but Baltimore was inarguably the better team during the regular season. Can the Ravens avenge last year’s loss, or will the Chiefs pick up right where they left off?
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This matchup features two of the best quarterbacks in football – Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes – and they’re unsurprisingly the two studs to consider on Thursday. They lead our NFL Models in both median and ceiling projection, clearing the field by a comfortable margin.
Jackson is the pricier of the two, thanks in no small part to his rushing ability. Jackson has long been the gold standard for mobile quarterbacks in the NFL, and he averaged 51.3 rushing yards per game last season. He added five rushing touchdowns while adding near career-best numbers as a passer, culminating in his second MVP.
However, the Chiefs were a very tough defense to throw on last year. They finished third in dropback EPA against, and they allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson had just 20.58 DraftKings points in last year’s playoff defeat vs. the Chiefs, and he’s scored 21.28 DraftKings points or fewer in four of five career matchups vs. Kansas City (per the Trends tool).
Jackson will also take the field as an underdog, which is a role he’s not very familiar with. While he’s covered the spread at an elite clip, his fantasy production has taken a major hit as an underdog. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -1.94 in 14 career starts as a dog, compared to a +1.50 mark as a favorite. As a road dog, Jackson’s average Plus/Minus dips to -3.55.
Rostering Jackson is almost always a good decision – particularly in the single-game format – but this is far from an elite spot to do it. Expectations should be tempered.
Mahomes is slightly cheaper than Jackson across the industry, but he has superior projections in our Models. That’s a nice combination, giving him a slate-leading projected Plus/Minus.
Mahomes is coming off a down regular season, but he proved to be as good as ever during the playoffs. With a revamped group of pass-catchers, he’s poised for a massive bounce-back campaign in 2024.
He’ll start the year as a home favorite, which is something he’s very familiar with. He’s averaged 24.44 DraftKings points in 62 occurrences. He was even better before last year’s struggles, posting a Plus/Minus of +2.01 in that split from 2018 through 2022.
Like the Chiefs, the Ravens also possess one of the better pass defenses in football. They were second in dropback EPA against last year, and they allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. Mahomes has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.2, which is the worst mark on the slate.
While that’s a bit of a concern, Mahomes has routinely torched the Ravens throughout his career. He had just 15.14 DraftKings points in last year’s playoff matchup, but he’s racked up 28.02, 43.0, 30.86, and 24.78 in his other four matchups. Add it all up, and it results in an average Plus/Minus of +5.47.
Ultimately, Mahomes stands out as the strongest play on the slate, and he should garner heavy consideration in the Captain spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange is headlined by a pair of aging stars: Travis Kelce and Derrick Henry. Both players are coming off down regular seasons in 2023, so we’ll see if either player can bounce back.
Kelce does have one of the best individual matchups on the slate. His +1.2 Opponent Plus/Minus leads the way in our NFL Models, and he absolutely torched the Ravens in the postseason. He caught all 11 of his targets, finishing with 116 yards and a touchdown.
The big question is how much will the Chiefs lean on Kelce during the regular season? His role ultimately might be similar to last year, when he was preserved until the team got to the playoffs. He averaged just 6.2 receptions and 65.6 receiving yards during the regular season, and he finished with just five scores. I’m not particularly excited to roster him in Week 1.
As for Henry, it will be interesting to see his role in his first year outside of Tennessee. Henry has led the league in carries in four of the past five years, and there’s no guarantee he sees as much work in Baltimore. Jackson is always a threat to siphon away some opportunities, while Justice Hill could steal work on passing downs.
The good news is that the Ravens love to run the football. Even if he sees a larger share of the pie than he did with the Titans, the pie should be significantly larger overall. No team ran the ball at a higher frequency than the Ravens last season (49.92%).
It’s also an elite matchup for Henry to get his feet wet. While the Chiefs’ pass defense was elite last year, they remain extremely vulnerable against the run. They were 28th in rushing EPA against, and they allowed opponents to average 4.4 yards per carry.
The Ravens chose not to exploit this weakness in the playoffs last year, giving their running backs just six combined carries. I don’t expect them to make the same mistake again.
Isiah Pacheco is next on the pricing spectrum, and he has a chance for a career year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will start the year on the Non-Football Injury List, leaving the newly acquired Samaje Perine as his only real competition for touches.
Pacheco was a true workhorse down the stretch for the Chiefs last season, racking up at least 15 carries in nine of his final 10 games. He also saw at least four targets in six of them, so he’s emerged as a legit dual-threat back.
The Ravens defense wasn’t quite as good against the run as they were against the pass last season, ranking 16th in rushing EPA. The only real issue is that he doesn’t correlate well with Mahomes (-0.15). That reduces his value in lineups with Mahomes at Captain, but it increases his value when you’re fading the Chiefs’ star quarterback.
Rashee Rice stands out as one of the best pure values on the slate, particularly on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,000, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 88%.
Rice started his rookie season slowly but emerged as the Chiefs’ clear No. 1 pass-catcher down the stretch. He averaged 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and 86.3 receiving yards over his final six regular-season contests, and he found the end zone three times. He wasn’t featured quite as prominently during the postseason, but he still had at least eight targets in three of four games.
With Rice avoiding a suspension for the time being, he’s poised to resume his role as the Chiefs’ top receiver. He’s projected for more points than Kelce in our NFL Models despite a significantly cheaper price tag. That makes him a very tough fade.
Zay Flowers is another receiver entering his sophomore season, and like Rice, he’s emerged as his team’s top pass-catcher. He led the Ravens with a 24% target share as a rookie, and he averaged 4.8 receptions and 53.6 receiving yards with six total touchdowns during the regular season. He was excellent in their postseason game vs. the Chiefs as well, tallying five grabs for 115 yards and a score on eight targets.
Despite his success, this stands out as a tough matchup on paper. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.1 – the second-worst mark on the slate – and the Chiefs allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. He’s not a priority option on this slate.
Mark Andrews seems like the superior value for the Ravens. His receiving numbers look very similar to Flowers from last season, averaging 4.4 receptions and 55.8 yards per game. He was also the more frequent touchdown scorer, finding the end zone six times in just 10 games.
Additionally, the Chiefs defense was slightly worse against opposing tight ends, ranking as the 10th-best unit against the position. Given Andrews’ track record, he’s a viable target in this matchup.
Xavier Worthy should operate as the Chiefs’ clear No. 2 receiver with Hollywood Brown sidelined, giving him a clear path to relevance on this slate. He blazed the fastest 40-yard dash in combine history, so his big-play upside with Mahomes is clear.
Worthy was also a big part of the Chiefs’ passing attack during the preseason. He posted a 25% target share in two games with the Chiefs’ starters, and he had a massive 20.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT). He’s a walking big play, and he’s going to get plenty of opportunities in what should be a potent offense.
Rashod Bateman rounds out this price range on DraftKings, but he’s a much stronger target on FanDuel. He has the second-best Bargain Rating on the slate, so he’s significantly cheaper than he is on DraftKings.
Bateman has had a disappointing career to date, but the former first-round pick has shown flashes in the past. With Odell Beckham Jr. now gone, he should serve as the Ravens’ clear No. 2 receiver in 2024.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kickers & Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format. The kickers will likely get plenty of love in this specific matchup, but the defenses could be overlooked. The 46.5-point total isn’t particularly high for a game involving Mahomes and Jackson.
- Justice Hill ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Hill should serve as the pass-catching back for the Ravens, giving him a smidge of viability. That would be particularly true if the Ravens end up falling behind.
- Nelson Agholor ($3,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Should serve as the Ravens’ No. 3 wide receiver. That’s not a particularly fruitful role, but Agholor had four regular season games with a touchdown last season.
- Justin Watson ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Watson can generate the occasional big play in the Chiefs’ passing attack. He’s averaged at least 17.0 yards per reception in back-to-back years, and he has five total touchdowns in that time frame.
- Samaje Perine ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): There’s a chance Perine is used sparingly in Week 1, but he could also be used as the team’s third-down running back.
- Isaiah Likely ($2,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Given the Ravens’ lack of talent at receiver, they could opt for more two-TE sets in 2024. Likely is a talented player when he’s on the field.
- Mecole Hardman ($1,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Hardman had 21 targets in six regular season games with the Chiefs last season. He probably won’t be as involved in 2024, but his deep speed gives him some utility.
- Noah Gray ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): I’d rather go with Hardman in this price range, but Gray is always a threat to vulture a TD around the goal line.
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