NFL Week 4 features another Monday Night Football doubleheader, with the first game taking place between the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. The Dolphins are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at just 37.0 points.
Neither of these teams has been impressive to start the year, checking in with a combined 1-5 record. The Dolphins are also down to their third quarterback, with Tua Tagovailoa currently on IR.
Can either team put some points on the board in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Tyreek Hill is the most expensive option on this slate, which makes sense in a vacuum. He’s one of the best receivers in fantasy, and this game simply doesn’t have a ton of offensive talent.
Unfortunately, Hill is a wide receiver, so he needs someone to get him the ball. Whether or not Miami has a quarterback that can do that is a major question mark.
We’ve seen what life is like for Tyreek in a world without Tua over the past two weeks. He’s averaged 5.5 targets per game – down from 12 in Week 1 – and he’s responded with just six total catches for 64 yards. He’s scored 7.0 DraftKings points or fewer in both outings, so it’s very hard to get excited about him at $11,000.
Of course, Hill is still one of the fastest players in the league, so he’s capable of doing a lot by himself. Head coach Mike McDaniel needs to scheme up some ways to get him the ball in space, even if his quarterback can’t reliably push it down the field.
Hill still has some upside – he has the fourth-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models – but that’s not great for his salary. From a pure value standpoint, he’s one of the worst options on the entire slate: he has the second-lowest projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Things aren’t much rosier for the other stud options. De’Von Achane did a little better without Tagovailoa last week, finishing with 8.8 DraftKings points. However, he’s enjoyed the Dolphins’ backfield basically to himself over the past two games. There’s a chance that Raheem Mostert returns to the lineup and cuts into his workload. Mostert is officially questionable after getting in some limited practices this week, though McDaniel told reporters they’re not going to force him out there if he’s not 100%.
If Mostert remains out, Achane is one of the strongest stud options on the slate. He’s handled 67% of the Dolphins’ carries over the past two weeks, and he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run. Both of those are excellent figures, and Achane is capable of turning any touch into an explosive play.
From a matchup standpoint, the Titans have been slightly easier to run on than pass against. They’re 16th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to the position this season.
Even if Mostert does return, there’s a chance he’s limited or is forced to exit the game early. He has the highest ceiling projection among the non-quarterbacks on this slate, so he’s a strong choice regardless.
Tony Pollard is priced in the same neighborhood as Achane, which feels like a mistake. He’s been the Titans’ No. 1 running back this season, but he’s still operating as part of a committee. His workload looks similar to Achane’s overall – 68% rushing share, 22% targets per route run – but he lacks the same explosive upside. He’s averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per target, so he’s been far less efficient overall.
Pollard needs at least one touchdown to put together a true ceiling game at this price tag. That’s certainly possible, but the Titans are implied for just 17.25 points. I’d rather allocate my funds elsewhere.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The quarterbacks headline this price range, and playing both together is certainly doable at these prices. They have the two highest ceiling projections by a decent margin, so that’s an option worth considering.
Let’s start with Will Levis. Levis has done nothing but actively sabotage the Titans this season. He has five interceptions and three fumbles, and some of them have been absolute backbreakers. Specifically, the pick-six vs. the Bears and the goal-line fumble vs. the Jets might have cost the Titans two wins. If Levis doesn’t start to play better, he’s going to find himself holding a clipboard.
Still, Levis has done a few things right. He has four touchdown passes through the first three weeks, and he’s added just under 30 rushing yards per game.
He’ll take the field in his best matchup of the season vs. the Dolphins. They’ve been shredded through the air this season, ranking 28th in pass defense EPA. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 is also one of the better marks on the slate.
Tyler Huntley will be the other quarterback in this matchup after getting signed by the Dolphins just last week. With Skylar Thompson suffering a rib injury vs. the Seahawks, the team was left with either Huntley or Tim Boyle for Week 4. I’d rather start myself than Boyle at this point, so it’s not a surprise that Huntley ultimately got the nod.
That’s great news for fantasy players. His potential lack of knowledge of the Dolphins’ playbook isn’t ideal, but he can make up for it with sheer athleticism. Huntley has started nine games in his career, and he’s averaged more than 41 rushing yards in those contests. He’s also found the end zone twice to go along with five touchdown passes.
Huntley’s track record is far from elite, but he stands out as downright exciting compared to the rest of the options on this slate.
Jaylen Waddle is the Dolphins’ No. 2 receiver, and on paper, he’s one of the best No. 2s in the league. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to live up to that billing for most of the past two years. He’s had just a 14% target share and 15% air yards share through the first three weeks, which are not going to get the job done. Ultimately, if Hill has some question marks with Huntley under center, they’re only magnified for Waddle.
Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins are the Titans’ top two pass catchers. Ridley has been the WR1 for most of the season, while Hopkins continues to round into shape following a preseason injury.
However, Hopkins was significantly more involved in Week 3. He was still on the field for just 50% of the team’s pass plays, but he was targeted on 32% of his routes. He finished with a 21% target share overall, while Ridley leads the team at 18% for the season.
Ultimately, Ridley still has the superior projections in our Models, but it’s very thin between the two.
Raheem Mostert is priced at $6,800, and there’s a bit of buy-low potential at that number. He was priced significantly higher for most of last season, occasionally cracking five figures. However, with the Dolphins’ offense struggling and Mostert coming off an injury, it’s hard to make that case vs. the Titans. He owns the worst projected DraftKings Plus/Minus in our NFL Models.
Spears managed just two carries last week, but he made up for it with his work in the passing game. He had four targets, and he caught all four for 54 yards. It still wasn’t enough to return value – it was his third-straight game with a negative Plus/Minus – but his 10.1 DraftKings points was his top mark of the season. He would ideally be a bit cheaper, but he’s a reasonable option in this matchup.
Finally, Tyler Boyd is the Titans’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s had solid involvement so far this season. In fact, his numbers look pretty similar to Ridley’s: 81% route participation, 17% target share.
The big difference is that Boyd is being targeted a whole lot closer to the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 7.5 yards, compared to 22.7 for Ridley and 10.0 for Hopkins. It makes Boyd a high-floor, low-ceiling type of play.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Dolphins should be popular against the turnover-prone Levis, but the other options could be a bit under-owned.
- Chig Okonkwo ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Okonkwo scored a touchdown in Week 1, but it seems like that’s his only path to relevance at this point. He has seven total targets through the first three weeks.
- Jonnu Smith ($3,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Smith erupted for 11.3 DraftKings points in Week 2, but he’s been pretty much a non-factor in the other two weeks. He’s pretty similar to Okonkwo, all things considered.
- Josh Whyle ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Whyle is the Titans’ No. 2 TE, but he’s seen more snaps as the year has progressed. He had a 41% route participation last week, and he was targeted on 28% of those routes.
- Treylon Burks ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Burks has six targets, two catches, and 11 yards for the year. The former first-rounder is looking like a sizable bust.
- Braxton Berrios ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Berrios has averaged a 46% route participation and 4% target share through the first three weeks.
