NFL Week 4 features another Monday Night Football doubleheader, with the second game taking place between the Detroit Lions and the Seattle Seahawks. The Lions are listed as 4.0-point home favorites, while the total sits at 47.0.
This is undoubtedly the more appealing of the two MNF contests. The Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 to start the season, albeit against a weak schedule. They’ll face their toughest test of the early season against the Lions, who made it all the way to the NFC Championship in 2023-24.
Can the Seahawks continue to roll, or will the Lions pick up another victory? Let’s dive in.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This slate is headlined by two superstar receivers: Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.K. Metcalf. St. Brown was the No. 4 receiver in PPR points per game last season, while Metcalf is on pace for a career year under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Let’s start with St. Brown. He was among the busiest receivers in football last season, posting a 30% target share. He wasn’t quite as dominant in terms of air yards, but he still averaged more than 20 fantasy points per game.
Through three weeks, ARSB’s role looks basically unchanged. He’s at a 32% target share, while he’s racked up 35% of the team’s air yards.
The only difference is that the Lions simply haven’t thrown the ball as much so far this season. They’ve had a dropback over expectation of -6% or worse in two of their first three games, and Goff has attempted 28 passes or fewer in both of them. He did throw the ball 55 times in their other contest – which skews some of their season-long numbers – but this has been a low-volume passing attack overall.
As a result, St. Brown’s fantasy outlook is a bit down at the moment. He has eight targets or fewer in two of his first three outings after averaging more than 10 targets per game in 2023-24.
There are other reasons to be bearish on St. Brown in this matchup. The Seahawks are the No. 1 defense in football in terms of dropback EPA, and they boast some elite corners in Devin Witherspoon and Riq Woolen. Witherspoon specifically serves as the team’s primary slot corner, which is where St. Brown runs most of his routes.
St. Brown still provides some upside in this spot – he has the second-highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models – but he seems a bit overpriced, all things considered.
Metcalf put together a clunker in Week 1 vs. the Broncos, but that was to be expected against Pat Surtain. He’s rebounded with two straight big performances, racking up at least 100 yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Can he keep things going against the Lions? I see no reason why not. None of their cornerbacks are particularly imposing, with all three ranking outside the top 45 in terms of PFF grade. The Lions are merely 22nd in terms of pass defense EPA this season, and Metcalf owns a solid +1.8 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Metcalf is ultimately a bit more “boom-or-bust” than St. Brown, but his ceiling is arguably higher. He’s also projected for significantly less ownership in this matchup, making him an excellent tournament option. In fact, he stands out as the most undervalued Captain option on DraftKings using SimLabs.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Given how much the Lions have run the ball to start the year – particularly last week vs. the Cardinals – it’s not surprising that they have two RBs to consider in fantasy. Jahmyr Gibbs checks in at $9,600 on DraftKings, while David Montgomery isn’t far behind at $8,600.
Montgomery has served as the thunder half of this “thunder and lightning” combination. He handles the majority of the early-down work, posting a 53% carry share. He’s racked up at least 91 rushing yards in two of their first three contests, and he’s scored a touchdown in all three.
Still, Gibbs is the clear preferred option for fantasy purposes. Even though he gets fewer carries per game – he has a 42% carry share – he makes up for it with his work as a pass-catcher. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run, which is a top-10 figure at the position. Gibbs and Montgomery have also split the goal line work right down the middle, with both players getting three carries inside the five-yard line.
Ultimately, both players have plenty of viability in this matchup. The Seahawks haven’t been quite as dominant against the run as they have been against the pass, and they’re dealing with a host of injuries in their front seven. They’ve already ruled out four defenders – including their best lineman Leonard Williams – and they have another listed as questionable. It’s another game where the Lions could look to pound the rock early and often.
Jared Goff has revitalized his career with Detroit, but he’s had a mediocre fantasy season so far. He’s recorded 15.56 DraftKings points or fewer in all three contests, including the game where he had 55 attempts.
The good news for Goff is that he’ll be in his preferred split vs. the Seahawks. He’s been significantly better as a home favorite throughout his career, averaging 19.82 DraftKings points overall and 22.44 as a member of the Lions. The latter figure is good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.27 (per the Trends tool).
From a matchup perspective, Geno Smith has a clear edge at quarterback. The Lions were one of the friendliest defenses in football last season toward opposing QBs, giving Smith an elite +5.0 Opponent Plus/Minus. They haven’t been quite as friendly so far this season, but it’s still a significantly better matchup than facing the Seahawks.
Overall, both players grade out very similarly in our NFL Models, and they’re two of the strongest plays on the slate.
The Seahawks also have two running backs to consider on this slate: Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, unlike the Lions, this is not a 1A/1B situation. Walker has been the team’s top option, while Charbonnet has filled his shoes while Walker was sidelined with an injury. Now that Walker is back in the lineup, it seems like Charbonnet will likely be relegated to backup duty. That makes him way too expensive at $8,000 on DraftKings, though he’s still very playable at $8,000 on FanDuel.
In the only week where both players were active, Walker played on 67% of the snaps and handled 63% of the team’s rushing attempts. He also had the edge in terms of routes run and short-yardage opportunities. As long as that holds true moving forward, he’s the clear back to target from a fantasy perspective.
Unfortunately, this is not a week where he stands out. Not only have the Lions been elite against the run – No. 1 in rush defense EPA – the Seahawks are also underdogs. There will be weeks to use Walker going forward, but he’s an average play at best on Monday.
What has happened to Sam LaPorta? After putting together one of the best rookie seasons ever for a TE, he has basically fallen off the face of the planet. He had just five targets in Week 1, and he has five total targets over the past two weeks. Overall, his target share has dipped from 22% as a rookie to just 9% this season.
It’s definitely too early to abandon all hope on LaPorta, and this stands out as an interesting buy-low spot. The Seahawks have elite corners, which could funnel some additional work to the Lions’ tight ends and backs. His salary has come down slightly since the start of the year, and even though he’s already been ruled in, he could also garner a bit less ownership than usual due to his questionable designation.
Part of the reason why LaPorta has seen a smaller role this season has been the emergence of Jameson Williams. The former first-round pick has had a breakout in 2024. He racked up 20 total targets in the team’s first two games, responding with 10 catches, 200 yards, and a touchdown. He came back to reality a bit in Week 3, but he still holds a 22% target share and 43% air yards share for the year.
Finally, Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett round out the Seahawks’ receiving corps. The two players have been pretty negatively correlated so far this season. JSN had a target share below 10% in Weeks 1 and 3, while Lockett was at 29% and 24% in those contests. Smith-Njigba had a 38% target share in Week 2, and Lockett dropped to just 5%. Ultimately, it seems as though their production is going to come at the direct expense of the other, and they have a -0.31 correlation overall on DraftKings.
JSN gets the slight edge in our Models, but both players look like appealing values in this matchup. That said, you’re better off choosing between the two instead of rostering both.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. This is not a great slate for cheap skill-players, so expect all of these options to be pretty popular.
- Noah Fant ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Fant is clearly the most reliable option among the sub-$5k group of pass-catchers. He’s posted a 13% target share for the year, and he’s seeing the majority of the opportunities at TE in Seattle.
- Brock Wright ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Wright was basically a non-factor for the first two weeks, but he was on the field a lot in Week 3. That could be the case once again if the Lions want to utilize another run-heavy game plan.
- Kalif Raymond ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Raymond had just a 15% route participation in Week 3 and is falling behind Tim Patrick in the WR3 pecking order.
- Tim Patrick ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Patrick’s snaps have increased each week, culminating with a 50% route participation in Week 3. He proved himself to be a good player with the Broncos, and he should continue to earn more snaps in Detroit.
