We’re being treated to one of the best games of the early season on Sunday Night Football. The Baltimore Ravens will host the Buffalo Bills in a game between two of the best teams in the AFC. The Ravens are listed as 2.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
Even though the Ravens are favored, it hasn’t been a great start to the year for them. They dropped their first two games of the season, losing to the Chiefs and Raiders, before getting on the board with a win in Week 3 vs. the Cowboys.
On the other side, the Bills have absolutely breezed through their first three games. They’re coming off back-to-back demolitions of the Dolphins and Jaguars, winning by a combined score of 78-20. Josh Allen has also moved into the lead in the NFL MVP race, checking in at +250 to take home the hardware for the first time.
Can the Bills pick up another win on Sunday, or will the Ravens get the job done in Baltimore? Let’s dive in.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Has Allen taken another step forward in 2024? Despite losing his two top receivers in the offseason, he’s put together an amazing start to his seventh professional campaign. He’s completing a career-best 75% of his passes, and he’s yet to throw a single interception. His average of 10.75 adjusted yards per attempt is the best mark in the league, while he’s provided seven passing touchdowns and two on the ground.
From a fantasy perspective, Allen has picked up right where he left off in 2023. He was the No. 1 QB in fantasy football last season, and he’s at the top of the leaderboard through the first three weeks. He’s eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in two of those contests, and if not for his last two games being blowouts, he likely would’ve scored even more fantasy points.
The game script shouldn’t be a concern vs. the Ravens. Allen will take the field as an underdog Sunday night, which is a role he hasn’t found himself in much over the past few seasons. However, he’s absolutely smashed in those spots. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Allen has averaged a ridiculous 30.24 DraftKings points in 14 starts as an underdog. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +6.46 (per the Trends tool).
The Ravens have historically been a tough matchup, but they look a bit more vulnerable through the air so far this season. They’re 27th in pass defense EPA, so Allen should be able to do some damage.
As good as Allen is, he might not even be the best fantasy quarterback in this contest. Lamar Jackson is also available, and he holds a slight edge in our projections from a ceiling standpoint.
While Allen is a threat with his legs, Jackson is a maestro. He’s been unstoppable on the ground through the first three weeks, averaging 84.7 rushing yards per game and 7.3 yards per carry. Both of those would represent new career highs.
The Ravens have also allowed Jackson to carry the rock a lot in big games. He had 16 rushing attempts vs. the Chiefs on opening night, resulting in 122 rushing yards, and he had another 14 carries last week vs. the Cowboys.
The best way to attack this Bills defense is on the ground. They’re first in dropback EPA against this season, but they’re merely 27th vs. the run.
Jackson has also historically done his best work at home. He’s averaged 25.33 DraftKings points when playing in Baltimore, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.44, but that figure dips to just 22.36 on the road.
Ultimately, both of these guys are elite options, and they should be the two highest-owned players on the slate. Playing both together makes a ton of sense, and both should garner heavy consideration for the Captain spot.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Derrick Henry experiment got off to a very slow start in Baltimore. He didn’t look like the same explosive back that he was in his prime, averaging 3.54 yards per carry against the Cheifs in Week 1.
However, Henry has improved with each passing contest. He increased his output to 4.67 yards per carry vs. the Raiders, and he erupted for more than six yards per carry vs. the Cowboys. He gashed Dallas for 151 yards and two touchdowns, and he added one catch for 23 yards. Henry ultimately finished with 33.4 DraftKings points, making him the second-highest-scoring running back of the week.
Henry is going to be a boom-or-bust type of player. He provides very little as a pass catcher, and he’s going to lose carries to Jackson. However, in the right game scripts, he’s still an absolute monster. If the Ravens can play from in front Sunday night, he has the potential for a big outing against a suspect Bills run defense.
James Cook is the other RB in this contest, and his range of outcomes is a bit narrower. Cook hasn’t seen a huge share of touches in back-to-back games, but he remains the team’s unquestioned top runner. He’s capable of contributing on the ground and through the air, and his four touchdowns this season put him on pace to shatter his previous career best (six).
If Cook can continue to score with that type of frequency, he’s going to have a big fantasy season. His lack of touchdown upside was the only thing that held him back in the past, with Allen hogging most of the goal-line opportunities. Cook had just 30% of the carries from inside the five-yard line last season, but he’s up to 50% through the first three weeks. Allen has yet to take a carry from inside the five, so the Bills RBs as a group have handled 100% of those opportunities. That’s a big change in philosophy that bodes well for Cook’s prospects moving forward.
Zay Flowers has emerged as the Ravens’ clear top option in the passing attack. He managed just four targets in last week’s win, which was a lot more lopsided than the final score indicated. However, he had double-digit targets in the first two weeks. Overall, his target share has increased from 24% as a rookie to 28% so far this season.
Flowers doesn’t bring a ton of big-play upside to the table; he has just a 24% air-yards share this season, with his average depth of target (aDOT) coming just 6.4 yards downfield. That does limit his ceiling in non-PPR formats. Still, he’s the most likely pass catcher in this contest to post a big game.
Khalil Shakir was priced at $8,600 on DraftKings for last week’s game vs. the Jaguars, which I thought was absolutely crazy. Naturally, Shakir responded with six catches, 72 yards, and a touchdown, resulting in 19.2 DraftKings points. Whoops.
Shakir’s salary is a bit more “reasonable” this week at $7,600, especially with another week of data behind him. He’s become Allen’s favorite target in the passing game, racking up a 21% target share through the first three weeks. Most of his targets are of the low-value variety, as he has a 3.7-yard aDOT, but he’s scored at least 10.6 DraftKings points in all three games. Shakir also has a solid +0.35 correlation with his quarterback, making him a logical stacking partner.
Dalton Kincaid managed to find the end zone for the first time last week, but he still couldn’t pay off his elevated salary. He’s now posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s scored 7.3 DraftKings points or fewer in two of them.
That said, Kincaid’s underlying metrics still look pretty good. He’s been targeted on at least 27% of his routes in back-to-back games. His aDOT also increased to 12.2 yards last week, while he saw two end-zone targets.
The Ravens are also a strong matchup for tight ends. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position this season, and Kincaid’s +1.3 Opponent Plus/Minus is the top mark on the slate. Ultimately, Kincaid doesn’t look particularly appealing in our projections, but I still think he’s the Bills’ top pass catcher.
Keon Coleman’s rookie season started with a lot of promise. He led the Bills with a 90% route participation and a 23% target share in Week 1. He had another 90% route participation in Week 2, and while he didn’t get as many targets, his role still seemed very secure.
However, his routes were slashed in Week 3, and he was on the field for just 31% of the team’s pass plays. The question is whether that was a one-week anomaly or a new trend. I’m not really willing to find out at $6,600 on DraftKings, and our projections agree; he owns the worst projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
I’m much more willing to gamble on him at $8,000 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a slate-best 89% Bargain Rating, and he has far less downside at that figure.
Both of the Ravens’ tight ends – Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely – are priced within $400 of each other on DraftKings. Likely has been the more productive player this season, but virtually all his production came in Week 1. He had nine catches, 111 yards, and a touchdown vs. the Chiefs, but he’s followed that up with just three catches for 30 yards over his next two outings.
From a utilization standpoint, this situation is a mess. Andrews was the team’s top tight end in routes run over the first two weeks, but he had just a 35% route participation last week.
It’s possible that Likely has overtaken him in the pecking order, but Andrews still stands out as the TE to target in our models. He’s far from a must-play, but he has a superior median and ceiling projection at a slightly cheaper price tag.
Justice Hill rounds out this price range at $5,400. Like Likely, he was a big producer in Week 1 vs. the Chiefs, but that was due mainly to the game script. He had eight targets in that contest, and he caught six passes for 52 yards.
Hill is going to serve as the Ravens’ pass-catcher out of the backfield, but that role has more value in weeks where they’re going to be trailing. That could definitely happen vs. the Bills.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Tyler Bass stands out as the most undervalued option of the quartet, using SimLabs.
- Rashod Bateman ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Bateman continues to stand out as undervalued for the Ravens in 2024. He has a 91% route participation, 16% target share, and 34% air yards share through three weeks, all of which are elite for a player in this price range.
- Curtis Samuel ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Samuel hasn’t been on the field much for the Bills this season, but he’s been a frequent target when he’s been available. He’s a low-ceiling, high-floor option.
- Nelson Agholor ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Agholor is the Ravens’ clear-cut No. 3 receiver, posting a route participation of around 55% over the past two weeks.
- Ray Davis ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Davis has seen some extra work the past two weeks, but he remains well behind Cook in the team’s rotation.
- Ty Johnson ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Johnson has seen a similar role to Davis, but he has the benefit of playing on pass-catching downs as well. He’s the backup RB to target.
- Mack Hollins ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Hollins continues to see a large handful of snaps for the Bills, but that has yet to materialize in any real production. Still, being on the field is half the battle in this price range.
- Dawson Knox ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Knox has been basically a non-factor for the Bills this season, posting a 4% target share and 5% air-yards share.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – MVS was on the field for 10% and 13% of pass plays in the first two weeks, but that figure spiked to 71% in Week 3. That makes him an intriguing punt play vs. the Bills.
