NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (September 26th) for Cowboys vs. Giants Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 4 gets underway with an NFC East rivalry game. The Dallas Cowboys will travel to New York to take on the Giants in a matchup between 1-2 squads. The Cowboys are listed as six-point road favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.

The Cowboys were widely expected to contend for the division crown once again this season, but they’ve gotten off to a dreadful start. They were embarrassed in Week 2 by the Saints in Dallas, and they were down by 22 points to the Ravens before closing the gap late. They desperately need to turn things around vs. the Giants.

On the other side, this was expected to be a rebuilding season for the Giants. However, they dominated the Browns in Week 3, and they could’ve won in Week 2 as well. If not for a kicker injury, the Giants likely would’ve beaten the Commanders.

Can the Cowboys right the ship, or will the Giants continue to surprise? Let’s dive in.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

CeeDee Lamb was routinely selected as the No. 1 receiver in fantasy drafts this offseason, which makes his start to the year a bit disappointing. He hasn’t been bad – 13 catches, 216 yards, and a touchdown – but he’s just the No. 18 receiver in PPR scoring.

It would be one thing if only his production were down, but his utilization has decreased significantly as well. He commanded a 30% target share and 37% air yards share in 2023, giving him one of the largest workloads at the receiver position. He’s dipped to just 20% and 25% through the first two weeks, and he’s had just seven targets in each of his past two games.

It appears Lamb is being frustrated by his reduced role, leading to a sideline altercation with Dak Prescott vs. the Ravens:

CeeDee Lamb yelling at Dak Prescott 😳 pic.twitter.com/RIpbxzEWS8

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) September 22, 2024

Lamb has since apologized for his outburst, but don’t be surprised if the team looks to appease their disgruntled superstar in Week 4. Getting Lamb more involved isn’t just good for Lamb; it’s good for the Cowboys offense, too.

As good as Lamb is, it’s hard to justify his $11,800 salary on DraftKings when you can get Malik Nabers for -$1,000 less. Nabers may not have the same track record as Lamb, but he’s arguably just as talented. The Giants selected him with the sixth pick in the 2024 Draft, and he’s come out of the gates red hot. He’s racked up 23 catches, 271 yards, and three touchdowns, making him the first receiver in NFL history with at least 20 catches and three scores in his first three games.

From a workload perspective, Nabers has been the busiest pass-catcher in football. He already has a game with 18 targets this season, and he’s racked up 38% of the Giants’ targets overall. He’s also accounted for 58% of the team’s air yards, and both of those marks are tops in the league.

Unsurprisingly, Nabers has turned all those opportunities into some elite production. He’s the No. 1 receiver in PPR scoring, and he’s scored at least 28.2 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

At this point, Nabers seems like a virtual lock for 10+ targets on a weekly basis. He has 30 over the past two weeks, despite the fact that opposing defenses have to know the ball is going his way.

Nabers eclipses Lamb in both median and ceiling projections for Thursday, making him the clear choice between the superstar pass-catchers.

Prescott rounds out this price range, and he’s coming off a huge game in Week 3. He threw the ball 51 times, racking up 379 yards and two touchdowns, and he added a score on the ground. He finished with 32.86 DraftKings points, making him the highest-scoring QB of the week.

That said, it’s worth noting that a lot of that production came in garbage time. All three of his touchdowns came with less than nine minutes to go in the fourth quarter, and the Cowboys needed an onside kick recovery just to get him there. He was largely ineffective through the first three quarters against a strong Ravens defense.

The good news is that this week’s matchup should be significantly easier. The Giants have an average defense, ranking 15th in pass defense EPA through the first three weeks. That said, that might oversell their ability. Their performance against the Browns inflated their numbers, but Sam Darnold and Jayden Daniels had no problems producing against this unit.

Prescott also stands out from a Vegas perspective. He’s always been a bully, capable of putting up huge performances against inferior competition. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.88 when favored by more than four points, compared to -0.40 in all other situations (per the Trends tool).

Prescott stands out as the best pure value in our NFL Models, leading all players in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Daniel Jones is the other QB in this matchup, and he entered the year on the hot seat. After a dreadful performance in Week 1, fans were calling for Drew Lock to take over as the team’s starter.

Thankfully, Jones has quieted some of the doubters over the past two weeks. He’s completed 64.5% of his passes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, and he’s averaged just over 200 yards per game. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both outings.

Jones also brings just a smidge of rushing upside to the table. We haven’t seen a ton of that to start the year – he’s averaged 22.3 yards per game – but it was a big part of his arsenal in the past. He averaged more than 44 rushing yards per game two years ago, and he added seven touchdowns.

If Jones can combine his improved passing numbers with some of his old rushing ability, he has the potential for some big fantasy performances moving forward.

Like Jones, Devin Singletary has also returned value in each of his past two games. He’s scored a touchdown in each, and he’s averaged close to 100 scrimmage yards per game.

Singletary does have to split work with two other players in the Giants’ backfield, but he’s still getting the lion’s share of the opportunities. He’s played on 73% of the team’s snaps this season, and he’s handled 62% of the carries. He’s also been on the field for most of the short-yardage and pass-catching work, which are the most critical areas for fantasy scoring.

Singletary has the potential for a big day vs. the Cowboys as long as this game stays competitive. Dallas has been absolutely shredded on the ground through three weeks, ranking dead last in rush defense EPA. They surrendered 190 rushing yards to the Saints in Week 2, and the Ravens obliterated them for 274 rushing yards last week. Those teams ended up in favorable game scripts, but the Cowboys’ average of 5.4 yards per carry allowed is tied for the worst mark in football. As long as the Giants can stay within striking range, Singletary is poised for success.

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After Singletary, there’s a pretty clear dropoff. None of the other options in the midrange have the same consistent role. Part of that stems from the fact that they all play for the Cowboys, who have been inconsistent through the first three weeks.

Jake Ferguson is next on the pricing spectrum, and he’s played in just two of the team’s games to start the year. However, he’s been pretty consistent: he had a 19% target share in Week 1, and he followed that up with a 22% target share in Week 3. Ferguson had a 17% target share with the Cowboys in 2023, so it seems reasonable to expect similar production moving forward. Ferguson isn’t going to do a ton of damage from a yardage perspective, so he needs to score a touchdown or two for a ceiling performance.

Brandin Cooks and Jalen Tolbert round out the pass-catching corps, with Cooks checking in with the more expensive salary of the two. That feels like a mistake, given how these players have been used through the first two weeks. Tolbert has been on the field for a higher percentage of pass plays, and he’s commanded more targets than Cooks over the past two weeks.

Tolbert stands out as an excellent value option on FanDuel, where his 81% Bargain Rating is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.

Lastly, we have the Cowboys’ running backs. Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle are priced pretty similarly on DraftKings, but Dowdle is -$3,500 cheaper than Zeke on FanDuel. That’s egregious.

Dowdle has played more snaps than Zeke this season, and the gap widened in Week 3. Elliott was on the field for just 20% of the team’s snaps last week, and he handled just 20% of their carries. Meanwhile, Dowdle had a season-high 53% of the team’s rushing opportunities.

It’s hard to read too much into usage in a blowout, but Zeke has averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt this season. His best days are clearly behind him, so Dowdle appears to be the back to target in Dallas.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. SimLabs believes Brandon Aubrey to be the most undervalued of the group in terms of projected ownership.
• Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) – Robinson represents a massive value at just $4,800 on DraftKings. He has a 24% target share this season, and he’s racked up 15 catches through the first three weeks. His targets tend to come around the line of scrimmage, so he’s more valuable on PPR sites like DraftKings.
• KaVontae Turpin ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Turpin caught a touchdown last week, and he has at least three targets in back-to-back games. That said, he played just six snaps in the Cowboys’ only win this season, so his numbers are likely inflated by garbage time.
• Darius Slayton ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Slayton has a healthy 82% route participation this season; he just hasn’t had a ton of opportunities. He’s displayed some big-play ability in the past, so he’s an interesting buy-low option.
• Tyrone Tracy ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Tracy has established himself as the team’s No. 2 option at running back, and he played on all of the two-minute snaps last week. That gives him some pass-catching appeal, especially if you think this game turns into a blowout.
• Theo Johnson ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Johnson is the Giants’ TE1, but he has just a 6% target share for the year. Still, he’s on the field more than his $2,400 salary suggests.
• Jalen Brooks ($2,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Brooks has actually been on the field more than Turpin this season, logging a route participation between 22% and 46% in all three weeks.
• Deuce Vaughn ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Given how poor the Cowboys’ run game has been, it would not be a shock to see them try some different things vs. the Giants. Unfortunately, Vaughn has been just as unproductive as the other runners when given a chance, averaging just 2.0 yards per attempt on 30 career rushes.
• Hunter Luepke ($800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Luepke also saw some snaps in the Cowboys’ backfield last week, but he didn’t receive a carry. He’s more of a pass-catching option, and he doesn’t need to do much to pay off an $800 salary.