Monday Night Football is always a great way to cap off the NFL week, but we’re getting a special treat in Week 3. Instead of one Monday Night Football contest to choose from, we’ll have two available for our viewing pleasure.
The first game gets underway at 7:30 p.m. ET and features the Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Bills are listed as 5.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
The Bills are off to a flying start this season, recording wins against the Cardinals and Dolphins. The Jaguars have gotten off to the exact opposite, losing their first two games to the Dolphins and Browns. Their offense has been particularly poor, ranking just 26th in points per game and 22nd in yards through the first two weeks.
Can they right the ship vs. the Bills, or will Buffalo roll to an easy victory? Let’s dive in.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
It has been two wildly different games for Josh Allen to start the year. He was the No. 1 QB in fantasy in Week 1, racking up 32.18 DraftKings points. He had 232 yards and two touchdowns through the air, and he added 39 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Even after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, Allen still appeared poised for another monster fantasy season.
Unfortunately, things weren’t quite the same in Week 2. Allen wasn’t terrible – he completed 68.4% of his passes and didn’t throw a pick – but he just didn’t have as many opportunities. The Bills won that game convincingly, so Allen was limited to just 19 pass attempts and two carries. James Cook did most of the damage in that contest, scoring three total touchdowns, while the defense added a fourth.
The most likely outcome for Allen on Monday is somewhere in between. He might not have to put on the Superman cape like he did vs. the Cardinals, but he’s almost certainly going to have to do more than he did vs. the Jaguars.
From a matchup perspective, the Jaguars stand out as below-average. They have a solid pass defense, ranking 10th in EPA per dropback last season. They haven’t been quite as good in that department to start this season, but a lot of that stems from an 80-yard touchdown they allowed to Tyreek Hill. Other than that, they’ve done a solid job against Tua Tagovailoa and DeShaun Watson.
Of course, matchups don’t really matter for Allen. He’s capable of going off against anyone, especially when he’s a sizable favorite. He’s averaged 27.03 DraftKings points when favored by at least 4.5 points, good for an average Plus/Minus of +3.03 (per the Trends tool). He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, making him the clear top option on this slate.
The two running backs round out this price range. Travis Etienne is $11,000, while Cook is priced at $10,800. That feels extremely aggressive for both players.
Etienne started the year at just $9,000, and he’s managed to find the end zone in both contests. Despite that fact, he’s still posted a negative Plus/Minus in both games. He’s simply not operating like you’d expect for a running back in this price range.
Through the first two weeks, Etienne has played on 70% of the team’s snaps and handled just 56% of the team’s rushing attempts. He did see a slight spike in usage in Week 2, but that was with Tank Bigsby out of the lineup. Even without his top backup available, D’Ernest Johnson still siphoned away 26% of the team’s attempts.
Bigsby is questionable to suit up on Monday, and if he returns, Etienne is basically unplayable at this salary. He’s a much more reasonable target at $13,000 on FanDuel, given his 91% Bargain Rating.
Despite being the cheaper back on DraftKings, Cook has the superior projections in our Models. That stems partly from the expected game script – favorites tend to perform better than underdogs at running back – but Cook has also evolved into a top-flight fantasy RB.
He wasn’t really needed in the fourth quarter last week, but he racked up 68% of the team’s carries and was targetted on 21% of his routes run in Week 1. He had 22 carries + targets in that contest, and he’s averaged 19.6 opportunities over his past nine regular season contests. If not for getting just 12 in last week’s blowout – his last touch came with a full quarter still to go – that number would be even higher.
The Jaguars defense was more vulnerable against the run than the pass last season, and Cook has the best Opponent Plus/Minus among the players in this price range. He also has a correlation of -0.40 with Allen, so he’s a very interesting pivot in lineups where you’re avoiding the Bills quarterback.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
At this point, it feels pretty safe to say that Trevor Lawrence is never going to live up to the lofty expectations placed upon him before entering the NFL. He’s not a bad quarterback, but he’s definitely not a good one, either.
For fantasy purposes, Lawrence has had a very pedestrian start to the season. He’s had 13.3 DraftKings points or fewer in his first two contests, and he’s thrown just one touchdown pass. He did have 45 rushing yards in his last outing, but he’s completing a dreadful 51% of his passes for the year.
Still, any QB priced in the midrange is going to have some appeal for the single-game format. Lawrence is the clear No. 2 option on this slate from a ceiling perspective, exceeding the No. 3 option by more than six points.
I’m not sure what got into the DK pricing algorithm this week, but it was apparently feeling pretty spicy. That’s the only explanation for Khalil Shakir checking in at $8,600.
Shakir was just $6,200 last week, and while he’s been good, he hasn’t been that good. He has just eight targets and one carry through the first two weeks, and he’s scored one touchdown. Overall, Shakir does lead the team with a 21% target share, but that’s far from an elite figure.
He stands out as the worst play on the slate in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, but he’s a much more palatable $10,000 on FanDuel. He’s tied with Etienne for the top Bargain Rating on the slate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
Dalton Kincaid was pretty quiet in Week 1, but he was much more involved in their win over the Dolphins. His target share increased to 24% in that contest, and he was targeted on 27% of his routes run.
Unfortunately, most of Kincaid’s opportunities were of extremely low value. He had an average depth of target (aDOT) of -2.0, meaning that his average throw came two yards behind the line of scrimmage. That’s simply not going to get the job done. His aDOT wasn’t much better in Week 1 – he accounted for just 3% of the team’s air yards – so unless his role changes, he’s not going to offer as much production as initially expected.
The Jaguars have operated with a three-man committee at receiver. Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., and Gabe Davis are all priced within $1,600 of each other on DraftKings, with Kirk as the most expensive of the trio.
However, it’s hard to get behind that from a utilization standpoint. Davis has actually been the team’s top option in terms of routes run, and he also leads the trio with a 21% target share. He also leads the trio in air yards, with Thomas ranking second and Kirk ranking third in both metrics.
The projections for all three receivers are very similar vs. the Bills, making Davis the clear top choice from a value standpoint. However, he’s also projected for the most ownership of the trio.
Keon Coleman rounds out this price range, and he was Allen’s clear No. 1 option in the first game of the season. He had a 23% target share in that outing, and he finished with four catches for 51 yards.
Coleman came crashing back to reality in Week 2, failing to catch his only target. Still, he was in the pattern for 90% of the team’s pass plays. No other Bills’ receiver has a route participation above 76%, so he still seems like the team’s top target. This is a nice buy-low opportunity.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The two defenses stand out as particularly undervalued using SimLabs.
- Curtis Samuel ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Samuel was expected to be in the mix for the Bills’ top receiver job, but he has a paltry 34% route participation through the first two weeks. He has been targeted on a high frequency of his routes, but he’s simply not seeing the field enough to matter.
- Tank Bigsby ($3,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Bigsby had a great offseason, and he handled 50% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 1. If he’s able to return to the lineup, he could force a committee with Etienne. He’s the much better value at their respective salaries.
- Brenton Strange ($3,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Strange should be one of the most popular value options on the slate as the Jaguars’ defacto starting TE. He had a 72% route participation and 25% target share in place of Evan Engram last week.
- Ray Davis ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Davis saw a spike in opportunities last week, but most of that work came in garbage time. Six of his nine carries came in the fourth quarter.
- Mack Hollins ($2,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Hollins has been on the field for more pass plays than Samuel, though that hasn’t resulted in much production yet. Still, being on the field is half the battle.
- Dawson Knox ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Knox has been a minimal part of the Bills’ passing attack through the first two weeks, particularly in Week 2.
- Ty Johnson ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Johnson has operated as the Bills pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. That role can have value in weeks where you think the Bills will be playing from behind.
- Luke Farrell ($800 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Farrell saw his route participation improve from 4% in Week 1 to 14% without Engram in Week 2. That’s just enough to give him a smidge of relevance.
