Monday Night Football is always a great way to cap off the NFL week, but we’re getting a special treat in Week 3. Instead of one Monday Night Football contest to choose from, we’ll have two available for our viewing pleasure.
The second game gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET and features the Cincinnati Bengals and the Washington Commanders. The Bengals are listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.
The Bengals were expected to be one of the best teams in football this season, but they’re currently sitting at 0-2. Falling into an 0-3 hole would be disastrous: Only four teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs since 1990.
Can they get on the board vs. the Commanders, or will Washington secure the upset? Let’s dive in.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
It has been a disappointing start to the season for most of the Bengals, and that includes Ja’Marr Chase. Despite being without running mate Tee Higgins, Chase has been unable to get going through the first two weeks. He’s managed just 10 grabs for 97 yards with zero touchdowns, and his 19.7 PPR points ranked merely 40th at the receiver position.
Chase was slightly limited in Week 1, running a route on just 89% of the team’s dropbacks, but he was back up to 98% in Week 2. Unfortunately, it didn’t have a huge impact on the rest of his utilization numbers. He saw just a 15% target share vs. the Chiefs, and he managed just 11% of the team’s air yards. That’s a big red flag with Higgins out of the lineup.
Still, I’m not overly concerned about Chase overall. The Patriots and Chiefs both have strong pass defenses, and the Bengals are notorious slow starters. Chase had a 26% target share and 36% air yards share last season, and he’s undoubtedly one of the most talented receivers in football. His metrics should improve moving forward.
This matchup vs. the Commanders is the perfect spot to get him more involved. Washington is dead last in dropback EPA by a wide margin, and top receivers have shredded them. Malik Nabers went off for 10 catches, 127 yards, and a touchdown against the Commanders in Week 2, while Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for 144 yards and three scores in Week 1. Add it all up, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing receivers so far this season. It’s a smash spot.
While Chase is the most expensive player on DraftKings, his quarterback leads the way in our projections. Joe Burrow owns the top median and ceiling projections, and he has the best projected Plus/Minus as well.
As good as the matchup is for Chase, it’s arguably even better for Burrow. He leads all players with a +4.7 Opponent Plus/Minus, with the Commanders allowing an average of 24.0 points per game to QBs through the first two weeks.
The Bengals are implied for 27.0 points in this matchup, and Burrow has historically thrived with a comparable figure. He’s averaged more than 23 DraftKings points per game with an implied team total of at least 25.0, good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.50 (per the Trends tool).
Stacking up the Bengals’ passing attack is very expensive – especially if you’re using one at Captain – but it could pay huge dividends in this matchup. Burrow and Chase have a correlation of +0.47 on DraftKings, while Burrow and Higgins are at +0.80.
Jayden Daniels rounds out this price range, and he has been the most impressive rookie QB by a mile this season. His team didn’t score a touchdown last week vs. the Giants, but they engineered 425 yards of total offense and made six trips into the red zone. Their only drive that didn’t end in points was a kneel-down at the end of the first half.
Daniels is already in the QB1 conversation for fantasy purposes because of his rushing ability. He’s averaged 13 carries per game through his first two starts, and he’s ripped off 132 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bengals are very exploitable on the ground after losing D.J. Reader in free agency. They were the worst run defense in football with Reader off the field over the past two seasons, and they’re 28th in rush defense EPA so far this year.
Daniels has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the NFL, but he’s completed a robust 75.5% of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. He’s also managed to avoid interceptions, which is something that most young quarterbacks can’t say.
Daniels showed off his elite ceiling in Week 1, and he checks in just slightly behind Burrow in our projections. His team isn’t implied for as many points, but as he showed vs. the Buccaneers, he can rack up plenty of fantasy production in garbage time if it comes to it.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Brian Robinson just barely misses out on the stud tier on DraftKings, checking in at $9,800. He’s taken over as the clear RB1 in the Commanders’ backfield, and that’s paid big dividends to start the year. He scored a touchdown in Week 1, finishing with 17.9 DraftKings points, and he followed that up with 133 rushing yards in Week 2.
The biggest development for Robinson is an uptick in passing game production. He has seven targets through the first two weeks, and he’s averaged 13.0 yards per reception. He also had a 53% route participation in Week 2, which was his second-best mark as a professional.
The biggest problem with Robinson is his salary. He’s been priced way up after starting the year at just $6,400. It’s tough to justify paying this much for him as a big underdog, even though it’s an excellent matchup.
Still, Robinson stands out as a stronger option than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin looks like a square peg, and Washington’s new offensive system apparently has a lot of round holes. He’s still their clear top receiver, but the team is struggling to figure out how to utilize him properly.
In Week 1, McLaurin had just a 17% target share, but his throws came way downfield. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 19.5 yards, and he racked up 62% of the team’s air yards. That didn’t work out, with McLaurin securing just two passes for 17 yards.
The team tried a different philosophy in Week 2. They threw to him at a much higher clip (29%), but his aDOT plummeted to just 4.0. He did finish with more catches (six), but he could only produce 22 yards.
I’m not sure how the team will utilize him in Week 3, but it’s a matchup where the Commanders should lean on their run game regardless. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, so he’s a tough sell at the moment.
Higgins is technically still questionable for Monday Night Football, but he told reporters he’s at 100% and should be able to play at full strength. While that’s great news, it remains to be seen if the Bengals will deploy him in a full capacity. They limited Chase’s routes in Week 1, and they could do the same with Higgins vs. the Commanders.
Still, Higgins benefits from the same elite matchup as Chase and Burrow, so he doesn’t necessarily need a full complement of snaps to potentially return value. He’s definitely worth stacking with Burrow given their elite correlation, but he has some standalone appeal as well.
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The Bengals’ backfield situation was a bit murky before the start of the year, but Zack Moss has established himself as the unquestioned No. 1 option. He’s played on 74% of the snaps this season, including 82% in Week 2. He’s also handled the lion’s share of the opportunities, including the crucial goal line and pass-catching work.
Moss stands out as underpriced across the industry, especially with the Bengals as heavy favorites. If they’re able to establish a lead, Moss will likely be the guy tasked with running out the clock.
Austin Ekeler has been the Commanders clear No. 2 running back this season, but he has still played on 46% of snaps. That number was slightly higher in Week 1 – the game where the Commanders were forced into a trailing game script – which could bode well for his role vs. the Buccaneers.
If Ekeler is on the field more vs. the Buccaneers, he has some upside. He’s been targeted on 22% of his routes run this season, which is an excellent figure for a running back. Among RBs with at least a 45% snap share, Ekeler’s 22% targets per route run (TPRR) is the ninth-best mark in the league. He’s a bit overpriced for his most likely outcome, but the ceiling is there.
Andre Iosivas and Mike Gesicki both stepped up in Higgins’ absence. Gesicki went off for seven catches and 91 yards in Week 2 – making him the fifth-highest scorer at TE – while Iosivas had two touchdowns. However, how much value they’ll have with Higgins back in the lineup remains to be seen.
Iosivas should be the most impacted. He was on the field for 91% of passing plays through the first two weeks, while No. 3 receiver Trenton Irwin was at just 58%. It’s very possible that Iosivas will move into Irwin’s role moving forward.
Gesicki’s snaps should be more secure as the team’s starting TE. However, he’s been targeted on a whopping 35% of his routes through the first two weeks. That almost certainly is due for regression moving forward.
Both players seem overpriced at the moment. They could have some viability once their salaries return to normal, but it’s hard to roster both players at their current DraftKings prices.
Zach Ertz rounds out this price range, and he’s been pretty consistent for the Commanders. He’s had four targets in back-to-back games, and he’s caught seven passes for 90 yards. He likely needs a touchdown to exceed expectations, but he appears to have a pretty safe floor.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Commanders defense shouldn’t garner much ownership in this spot, and they stand out as the most undervalued option on the slate per SimLabs.
- Chase Brown ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Brown was excellent last year in relief of Mixon, and he’s averaged 6.0 yards per attempt so far this season. That said, he’s simply not getting a ton of opportunities. Maybe that changes if this game turns into a blowout.
- Noah Brown ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Brown was a late addition for the Commanders, and he’s still working his way into the rotation. That said, he might be the Commanders’ No. 2 receiver when all is said and done. He ran a route on just 32% of the team’s dropbacks last week, but he was targeted on 25% of them.
- Luke McCaffrey ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – McCaffrey is also in the mix for the No. 2 receiver job. He has the second-most routes among Commanders’ receivers, trailing only McLaurin, but he’s posted a meager 8% target share and 3% air yards share.
- Dyami Brown ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Brown saw a slight spike in opportunities last week, but he managed just 3.7 PPR points.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($2,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Noah Brown entering the rotation seems to have impacted Zaccheaus the most. His route participation plummeted in Week 2, though he still managed three targets.
- Drew Sample ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – The Bengals use lots of different tight ends – four different guys have seen the field at the position – but Sample isn’t much of a threat as a pass-catcher.
- Jermaine Burton ($1,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Burton was one of the Bengals’ top draft picks this season, but they’re taking it slow with him. His role could grow as the season progresses, but he’s not really in the mix at the moment.
- Erick All ($200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – If you’re going to play a Bengals TE not named Gesicki, All is the guy to target. The price is right at just $200, and he was targeted on 27% of his routes in Week 2.
