NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (September 16th) for Falcons vs. Eagles Monday Night Football

It’s a battle of the birds to wrap up Week 2 on Monday Night Football. The Eagles will host the Falcons in Philadelphia, and they’re listed as six-point home favorites.

Philly got off to a great start in Week 1, taking care of business against the Packers in Brazil. It was a different story for the Falcons, who couldn’t get anything going offensively vs. the Steelers. Kirk Cousins looked awful in his debut, and people are questioning if he’s still not fully recovered from his season-ending Achilles injury from 2023.

Can the Falcons bounce back in Week 2, or will the Eagles move to 2-0? Let’s dive in.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Saquon Barkley changed teams this offseason, moving from the Giants to the division-rival Eagles. On paper, it figured to be a massive upgrade. The Giants were one of the worst run-blocking teams in football during Barkley’s tenure, while the Eagles were one of the best. In 2023, New York ranked 31st in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate, while Philly was No. 1. Barkley has always been one of the most talented running backs in football, so improved blocking could result in a massive season.

Barkley certainly looked the part in Week 1. He was the highest-scoring running back of the week, finishing with 36.2 DraftKings points on 132 total yards, two catches, and three touchdowns.

His underlying utilization was also encouraging. He played on more than 80% of the snaps, and he racked up 69% of the carries and a 64% route participation. That included all of the short-yardage work, with only Jalen Hurts stealing a carry from inside the five-yard line.

Barkley will take the field as a moderate favorite on Monday, which is a spot he’s not all that familiar with from his time with the Giants. He’s only been favored by more than a field goal in six previous games. However, he’s typically crushed in those contests, averaging 23.0 DraftKings points and a +4.16 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool).

While that’s all very encouraging, our projections still don’t think he should be the most expensive player in this matchup. He has just the third-highest median projection, and he slips to fifth in ceiling projection. The Falcons were the best run defense in football last season in terms of EPA per play, and they allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Bijan Robinson is the other running back in this matchup, and he’s looking to build off an underwhelming rookie season. He didn’t exactly dominate in Week 1, scoring 16.1 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers, but his utilization was absolutely elite. Tyler Allgeier was a major thorn in his side last season, but Robinson played on 90% of the snaps in Week 1. He also garnered 82% of the carries and ran a route on 79% of the team’s dropbacks, and he finished with an impressive 23% target share. If Robinson can continue to handle that type of workload, he’s going to be one of the busiest backs in the entire league.

The Eagles were absolutely shredded on the ground last season, ranking 30th in EPA per rush defensively, and they were 31st in that department in Week 1. It’s a great spot for Robinson to post a much bigger fantasy score than he did vs. the Steelers.

Jalen Hurts is merely the third-most expensive option on this slate, which feels a bit ridiculous. He averaged just under 22 fantasy points per game last season, making him the fifth-highest scorer in the entire league. Only Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyreek Hill were better on a per-game basis in PPR formats.

Hurts didn’t have his best performance in Week 1, throwing two interceptions, but he still finished with just under 20 fantasy points. He threw for 278 yards and two scores while adding 13 rushing attempts. He remains one of the best dual-threat QBs in football, and dual-threat QBs are a cheat code for fantasy.

Hurts unsurprisingly dominates in our projections. He’s the No. 1 player in both median and ceiling projection, and when combined with his salary, he leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus. I’m not sure why DraftKings decided to price him so cheaply, but it makes him a really tough fade.

Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

A.J. Brown has been officially ruled out, making DeVonta Smith a potential stud at a midrange salary. He was only marginally behind Brown in terms of targets last week, posting an elite 30% mark. Only 12 receivers currently have a target share of at least 30%, and two of them just happen to play on the same team.

The big difference between Brown and Smith was their average depth of target (aDOT). Brown’s throws came an average of 12.8 yards downfield, while Smith was at 8.4. That said, there’s no reason to assume that will be the case all season. Smith actually had a superior aDOT in 2023 (12.6 vs. 12.3), so it’s possible that was just a one-week anomaly.

With Brown now out of the picture, Smith could be looking at an improved role. That’s pretty scary for a guy who already had a 30% target share.

What to do with Cousins is one of the biggest question marks on this slate. He looked awful in his season debut, passing for just 155 yards with two interceptions, but it did come against a tough Steelers defense. T.J. Watt is one of the biggest game-wreckers in all of football, and Cousins was pressured on 11 of his 28 dropbacks. He didn’t exactly shred when he wasn’t pressured – he averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt – but it’s possible that he simply underperformed in a difficult matchup.

The Eagles should represent an easier test. They were awful defensively down the stretch last season, and they were merely 19th in dropback EPA defensively in Week 1. Jordan Love racked up 260 yards and two touchdowns in this matchup, so Cousins could certainly bounce back.

Still, our projections aren’t exactly in love with him. His median projection is below 15 points, and he’s merely ninth in projected Plus/Minus. He fares a bit better from a ceiling standpoint, so he’s ultimately a high-risk, high-reward option.

With Cousins struggling mightily in Week 1, it’s no surprise that his top pass-catchers didn’t smash either. Drake London was expected to be his top receiver this season, and with Cousins’ track record, he was a prime breakout candidate in his third year. London has had to deal with terrible quarterback play for his entire NFL tenure, but he has the pedigree to be an elite producer.

Unfortunately, it was more of the same in Week 1. He did a lot of empty cardio, posting a 100% route participation but just a 14% target share. There’s no reason to abandon ship yet – particularly at just $7,800 – but it could be another long year if Cousins doesn’t improve.

Kyle Pitts managed a better showing at tight end, but that was due to the fact that he caught a touchdown. The rest of his stat line was uninspiring: three targets, three catches, and 26 yards.

Like London, Pitts was on the field and in the pattern for 100% of the team’s pass plays in Week 1. He’s one of the most athletic tight ends in NFL history, so that should lead to bigger weeks in the future.

Dallas Goedert has historically been the No. 3 option in the Eagles’ passing attack, but his role looked a bit different in Week 1. He only ran a route on 71% of the Eagles’ dropbacks after posting an 83% route participation in 2023. His aDOT was also a paltry 0.1 yards, resulting in just a 1% air yards share. If that’s the kind of usage that Goedert is going to see moving forward, his days as a startable fantasy tight end could be numbered.

It wasn’t all that surprising to see a 100% route participation from London and Pitts, but Darnell Mooney also had a perfect mark in that department. He had the same number of targets as London and a respectable 25% of the team’s air yards, so he’s going to have some weekly upside. That will only be true if Cousins holds up his end of the bargain, but Mooney is at least worth considering.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Eagles defense will get plenty of attention after last week’s showing from the Falcons, but the rest of the options could be undervalued.
• Jahan Dotson ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Dotson was acquired to be the Eagles’ No. 3 receiver during the preseason, and he had a 62% route participation in Week 1. He should see a boost in value with Brown out of the lineup.
• Tyler Allgeier ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Allgeier’s snap share dropped from 32% in 2023 to 18% in Week 1. The Falcons seem committed to feeding Bijan more this season, which makes sense when you spend a top-10 pick on a running back.
• Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,000 DraftKings, 7,000 FanDuel) – McCloud was surprisingly the Falcons’ busiest pass-catcher in Week 1. He had a 27% target share and 46% of the team’s air yards, so he might have more viability than initially expected.
• Kenneth Gainwell ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Gainwell is going to get some work as a pass-catcher for the Eagles this season. He played on 40% of the long down and distance snaps and 100% of the two-minute snaps in Week 1. That could make him usable in weeks where the Eagles are underdogs, but this isn’t one of them.
• Britain Covey ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Covey saw just a 10% route participation in Week 1, but he could be the team’s third receiver in Week 2. Brown is already out, while rookie Johnny Wilson is questionable with a hamstring injury. Wilson missed practice on Saturday, so there’s a real chance he joins Brown on the sidelines.
• Charlier Woerner ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel ) – The Falcons TE2. He had a 25% route participation in Week 1 and saw two targets.
• Johnny Wilson ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – If he can go, he enters the punt play conversation as the Eagles’ potential No. 3 receiver.

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