After picking up wins in Week 1, the Bears and Texans will square off in a battle of undefeated squads on Sunday Night Football. However, how these teams managed to win was very different. The Texans put up more than 400 yards offensively – the second-highest mark of the week – while the Bears had less than 150. Ultimately, they became just the third team to win a game with less than 150 yards since 2016.
This is also a matchup between highly touted young quarterbacks. C.J. Stroud is coming off one of the best rookie seasons in history, while Caleb Williams was the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.
The Texans are currently listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Texans have one of the most explosive offenses in all of football, so it’s a bit surprising that their priciest option on DraftKings is… Joe Mixon? Don’t get me wrong, Mixon has had an excellent career, but he was drafted as just the RB15 on Underdog this offseason.
That said, it’s not necessarily undeserved. Mixon was an absolute workhorse for the Texans in Week 1. He finished with 29.8 DraftKings points on 178 total yards, three receptions, and a touchdown. It made him the second-highest scorer at the position, trailing only Saquan Barkley.
While Mixon’s production was impressive, his workload was even more so. He finished with 30 carries and three targets, and no other Texans’ running back had more than three.
So, is Mixon a slam-dunk RB1 moving forward? I’m not so sure. For starters, he did lose the passing down work to Dare Ogunbawale, playing on just 25% of long down and distance snaps. His 47% route participation was also a bit disappointing, though he made up for it with a healthy 17% target share when he was in the pattern.
It was definitely a stock-up game for Mixon, but I’m not sure he’s going to reach those heights on a weekly basis. Thirty carries is a major outlier: there were only six games where a running back recorded 30+ carries last season.
Nico Collins is the other player priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings. Collins has a lot more competition for targets this year than he did in 2023, with Stefon Diggs and a fully healthy Tank Dell both joining the fray.
While that’s a concern, Collins still looked like the Texans’ top pass-catcher in Week 1. He led the team with a 26% target share, and he racked up 50% of the team’s air yards. He ultimately corralled six of his eight targets for 117 yards.
The big question for the Texans’ receivers is who will draw the coverage of Jaylon Johnson? He’s become the best cornerback in football, and he allowed a ridiculous 0.02 fantasy points per route run in Week 1. The most likely scenario is that all three of the Texans’ receivers will see Johnson at some point, who doesn’t typically shadow opposing receivers.
Ultimately, Collins stands out as a middling option using our projections. He ranks merely 11th in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, so he’s far from a must-play.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
While there’s some debate about who is the Texans’ top pass-catcher, it’s pretty clear who the biggest beneficiary is: C.J. Stroud. Stroud followed up his elite rookie season with a solid debut in 2024, completing 75% of his passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns.
Stroud will take the field in Houston this week, where he has undoubtedly done his best work. He’s averaged 24.17 DraftKings points in nine starts at NRG Stadium, compared to just 15.02 on the road (per the Trends tool).
The Bears aren’t an ideal matchup for Stroud, ranking as one of the better defensive units in football down the stretch last season. From Week 10 on, they were third in EPA per play defensively and No. 2 against the pass. They followed that up with a strong showing vs. the Titans, recording two interceptions while ranking No. 8 in dropback EPA defensively.
Still, this is simply too cheap of a salary for Stroud. He easily leads the slate in projected Plus/Minus, particularly on DraftKings. He’s the most expensive player on FanDuel by $1,500, so his $9,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a 99% Bargain Rating.
It’s hard to get as excited about Williams. Calling his Week 1 performance a disappointment is a bit of an understatement. He completed less than 50% of his passes for less than 100 yards, and the only time the Bears’ offense put the ball in the endzone was on a two-point conversion. That was despite facing a Titans’ defense that was 30th against the pass last season.
That’s not what fantasy players were hoping for, but it’s not uncommon for a rookie to struggle in his debut. Stroud didn’t throw his first touchdown pass until his second game as a professional, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him improve as he gets more comfortable.
He’s an interesting buy-low target in this matchup, owning the fourth-highest median projection at the sixth-highest salary. He also leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.6 against a Texans defense that surrendered numerous big plays to the Colts’ passing attack last week.
Stefon Diggs had an interesting first game with the Texans. He managed to snag both of Stroud’s touchdown passes, and he led the Texans’ receiver trio in routes run. However, he was used almost exclusively around the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) was just 1.4 yards, and he finished with just a 4% air yards share. Collins and Dell both had an aDOT of more than 16 yards, so Diggs appears to be the short-usage receiver in this offense.
The good news for Diggs is that he played 65% of his snaps from the slot in Week 1. Johnson doesn’t venture into the slot defensively, so he’s the least likely to be matched up vs. the Bears’ top corner. He’s not going to score two touchdowns every week to bail him out, but there are some reasons to like Diggs in this spot.
As for Dell, he’s priced at a massive discount compared to his cohorts, making him an excellent value. There wasn’t much separating Dell from Collins in Week 1. He had a 23% target share and 44% air yards share, and he saw an end zone target. The only real difference was that only 43% of Dell’s targets were deemed catchable, while Collins was at 88%.
That’s not a stat that should be consistent week-to-week, so Dell is the easy choice if only choosing one Texans’ receiver. He leads the trio in projected Plus/Minus, and his median and ceiling projections are comparable to Collins and Diggs.
The Bears also have an elite receiver trio, with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze. That said, it remains to be seen if all three players will be in the lineup. Allen and Odunze are both listed as questionable, and while Odunze got in a limited practice on Friday, Allen missed the entire week. Nothing is written in stone, but that makes Odunze more likely to play than Allen.
If Allen is available, he’s certainly worth considering after his performance in Week 1. None of the Bears receivers scored many fantasy points – that tends to happen when your QB throws for less than 100 yards – but Allen led the team in both target share (33%) and air yards share (50%). Moore also had a healthy 29% target share, while Odunze was a distant third.
If Allen is out, Moore should resume his role as the clear top pass-catcher for Chicago. He managed 96 catches, 1,346 yards, and eight touchdowns with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent under center, so there’s no reason he can’t do the same with Williams.
Like the rest of the Bears’ offense, D’Andre Swift had a disastrous showing in Week 1. He finished with 10 carries for 30 yards while recording just one target.
The good news is that his underlying utilization was solid. He managed 50% of the Bears’ carries and played on 69% of the snaps, and he had a route participation of 61%. Just because he didn’t catch a pass in Week 1 doesn’t mean that won’t be a part of his game moving forward. He’s displayed some pass-catching chops in the past, catching 62 balls with the Lions in 2021.
The two tight ends round out this price range, with Dalton Schultz and Cole Kmet checking in at comparable price tags. Unfortunately, Kmet looks like the Bears clear TE2 at this point. He was behind Gerald Everett in terms of routes and snaps, so he’s not really viable at $5,000.
Schultz is clearly the superior option. He didn’t have much production in Week 1, but he still posted a healthy 79% route participation. That’s not a truly elite figure, but it was good enough to be the 14th-highest at TE in Week 1. He should provide some value in certain weeks this season, and the Bears allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends last year. They also allowed a tight end to score against them in Week 1, so Schultz is a solid midrange value.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kickers & Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The Bears’ D should be particularly low-owned despite a monster performance in Week 1.
- Khalil Herbert ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Herbert was basically invisible in Week 1: 11% snap share, 10% carry share, zero targets. He was a rumored cut candidate during the preseason, so I’m not touching him with a 10-foot pole.
- Dameon Pierce ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Pierce is questionable for Sunday, and he shouldn’t play much regardless. Mixon is the clear workhorse from a rushing perspective, while Ogunbawale is the preferred third-down back.
- Gerald Everett ($2,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Everett is definitely a viable target at $2,400 after running a route on 64% of the team’s pass plays last week. He could see a slight boost in targets if Allen or Odunze are out, too.
- DeAndre Carter ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Carter had just a 15% route participation in Week 1, but he was targeted on 40% of those routes. He’s an interesting flyer if the Bears are shorthanded at receiver.
- Brevin Jordan ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – The Texans TE2 ran a route on 24% of dropbacks in Week 1.
- Velus Jones ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Jones is a bit of a gadget player, and he had two carries and one target vs. the Titans. He’s another player who would benefit from the absence of Allen or Odunze.
- Travis Homer ($1,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – If I’m playing an RB other than Mixon or Swift on this slate, it’s Homer. He played on 50% of the long down and distance snaps for Chicago, so he has a smidge of passing-catching upside.
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