NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (September 12th) for Bills vs. Dolphins Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 2 gets underway with an AFC East showdown between the Bills and Dolphins. Both of these teams were able to pick up wins in Week 1, but both teams faced major scares. The Bills fell into a 17-3 hole at home vs. the Cardinals, while the Dolphins were down 17-7 at home vs. the Jaguars. Both teams managed to survive, but they’ll have to play better if they’re going to live up to their lofty expectations.

The Dolphins are back at home once again in Week 2, and they’re listed as 2.5-point favorites. The total sits at 49.5 points, so there’s expected to be plenty of scoring as well.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Not even the police can stop Tyreek Hill. After getting detained on his way to the stadium, Hill showed up and did what he did best vs. the Jaguars: rip off a long touchdown. He had an 80-yard score, and he ultimately finished with 29.0 DraftKings points on seven catches for 130 yards.

Hill also picked up right where he left off in terms of underlying metrics. He commanded a healthy 34% target share after ranking second in the league with a 32% mark last season. He also gobbled up a massive 62% air yards share, which was tied for the fourth-best mark in Week 1.

Hill has historically done some of his best work early in the year before the weather can hinder Tua Tagovailoa’s arm strength. He’s now played 23 pre-December games with the Dolphins, and he’s averaged 25.4 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool).

From a matchup standpoint, the Bills were the seventh-best defense in terms of EPA per dropback last season. They also allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. That said, the Bills secondary looks markedly different than it did at the start of last year. It’s possible they could be a friendlier matchup in 2024, though they held their own against the Cardinals in Week 1.

It’s weird not to see Josh Allen as the most expensive player on a slate, but that’s the case on DraftKings on Thursday. He checks in $600 cheaper than Hill, but he holds meaningful edges over Hill in both median and ceiling projection. Unsurprisingly, he leads the slate in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus by a pretty comfortable margin.

Allen doesn’t have the same level of receiving talent to work with in 2024, but that wasn’t a hindrance in Week 1. He completed 78.3% of his passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns, and it was just his second regular season game in his past 14 starts without a turnover.

Of course, Allen isn’t just giving us fantasy points with his arm. He’s one of the top rushing QBs in football, and he added 39 yards and two scores on the ground vs. the Cardinals. It resulted in 32.18 DraftKings points total, making him the highest fantasy scorer at QB in Week 1.

The matchup also looks good for Allen on paper. He leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.6, and he torched the Dolphins in their two matchups last season. He had 39.5 DraftKings points when they met in Buffalo, and he followed that up with 29.06 in a Week 17 matchup in Miami. It’s hard to say he’s not the best play on the slate and deserves heavy Captain consideration.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The Dolphins RB situation is complicated heading into Week 2. Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out, which should give De’Von Achane a massive boost in value. Achane was an RB1 for fantasy purposes when healthy despite splitting carries last season, so the thought of him operating as a bell-cow back is tantalizing.

Unfortunately, Achane is also at less than 100%. He’s dealing with an ankle injury, and he is reportedly a game-time decision. If he’s also ruled out, it’s going to open up some massive value in the Dolphins backfield.

If Achane is available, he clearly deserves some DFS consideration. He was the most explosive player in the NFL last year, averaging an eye-popping 7.3 yards per carry on 104 attempts. He’s also an outstanding pass-catcher out of the backfield, and he caught all seven of his targets for 73 yards in Week 1.

The upside is clearly there, but our NFL Models think he’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings. He’s a better pure value on FanDuel, where his 88% Bargain Rating is the second-best mark on the slate.

Tagovailoa may not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but at the end of the day, he puts up fantasy points. He was one of just two passers to crack the 300-yard plateau in Week 1, finishing with 21.62 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars. A good chunk of that production came on Tyreek’s long touchdown, but it counts all the same.

QBs and their top receivers typically have a strong correlation, but what Tua has with Hill is on a whole different level. They have a correlation of +0.66 on DraftKings, so playing both together makes a world of sense. When one goes off, he tends to bring the other one along for the ride.

Quarterbacks in this price range almost always grade out well in our Models, and Tua is no exception. He ranks second in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, sandwiched right in between Allen and Hill.

James Cook is priced similarly to Achane and Tagovailoa, which might feel wrong on the surface. However, Cook has handled an elite workload under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He had at least 19 carries + targets in eight of his final 10 games last season (including playoffs), and he racked up 19 carries and three targets to start 2024.

The only downside with Cook is his lack of touchdown upside. Allen remains the team’s primary runner around the goal line, so Cook doesn’t score as much as an RB1 should. He had just four scores in 19 games last year, which tends to cap his upside.

Jaylen Waddle rounds out the Dolphins’ explosive quartet on offense, and he’s one of the strongest plays on the FanDuel slate. He’s priced at just $11,000, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 89%.

Waddle’s production was subpar in Week 1, particularly his 18% target share. With Hill gobbling up 30+% of the looks, it doesn’t leave a ton for his running mate. That said, Waddle did manage a 23% target share in 2023, so there’s room for improvement moving forward.

There were tons of disappointing fantasy producers in Week 1, but Dalton Kincaid has to be near the top of the list. He was drafted as one of the top tight ends in fantasy, but he managed just two targets, one catch, and 11 yards.

It remains to be seen if he’ll live up to the preseason billing, but the good news is that the underlying metrics are there. He played on 84% of the team’s snaps in Week 1, and he had an 83% route participation. He only had four games with a higher route participation last year, so there’s still a good chance he serves as the team’s top pass-catcher.

That said, he’s going to have to fight Keon Coleman for that distinction. The rookie second-rounder was the clear focal point of the Bills’ passing attack in Week 1. He had a 90% route participation, making him the only receiver on the team with a mark of greater than 70%. He also led all of their pass-catchers with a 23% target share.

Coleman is still priced like he’s part of a muddled committee at receiver, but if the Week 1 utilization continues, he’s the clear guy you want in this group.

Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel round out this price range. Shakir managed to catch Allen’s touchdown in Week 1, so he paced the Bills’ receivers in terms of fantasy production. He also ranked second behind Coleman in terms of target share (14%). His $6,200 price tag on DraftKings is not ideal, but he still at least offers some upside.

Samuel is looking like a clear sell after the first week of the season. He had just a 30% route participation, and he was on the field for just 27% of the team’s snaps. That’s simply not going to get the job done.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play in the single-game format. The defenses likely won’t garner much ownership in an expected high-scoring game, and both units have positive leverage scores in SimLabs.
• Ray Davis ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Davis was third in the Bills’ backfield in snaps in Week 1, garnering an 11% carry share and 7% target share. He might grow into a bigger role as the year progresses, but he’s not there yet.
• Jonnu Smith ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – The Dolphins used four different TEs in Week 1, and none of them were useful for fantasy purposes. Smith did run the most routes of the quartet, but he had just a 6% target share and 1% air yards share.
• Dawson Knox ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The Bills didn’t play quite as much two-TE sets as expected in Week 1, with Knox running a route on just 43% of pass plays. However, he did manage two targets, and he should have some potential around the goal line.
• Jeff Wilson ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – If Achane is ruled out, Wilson becomes a 100% smash play. Even if Achane does suit up, there’s still a chance that Wilson sees a handful of touches. He handled 24% of the team’s carries in Week 1, and that was with Mostert mostly available.
• Ty Johnson ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Johnson saw more snaps than Davis last week, so he seems like the Bills No. 2 back at the moment. That said, that’s not a particularly valuable role unless Cook goes down with an injury.
• Mack Hollins ($1,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Hollins is underpriced at just $1,600 on DraftKings. He operated as the Bills clear No. 3 receiver in Week 1, posting a healthy 67% route share. He only had two targets, but he managed to turn one of them into a touchdown.
• Braxton Berrios ($1,200 DraftKings, $7,000) – Berrios is the Dolphins No. 3 receiver, but he played on just 37% of the snaps.
• Durham Smythe ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Smythe wasn’t on the field as much as Smith, but he was more involved in the passing attack. He was targeted on 20% of his routes, so he has some appeal as a punt play.

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