Week 18 kicks off on Saturday with a bitter AFC North rivalry game between the Ravens and Steelers. The Steelers are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 34.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Lamar Jackson is out for this matchup, and Zay Flowers is listed as doubtful, which immediately changes the scope of the showdown slate. Baltimore is also resting Odell Beckham Jr.
This makes Tyler Huntley the highest-projected player on the slate at a very affordable price. We saw Huntley extensively last season as Jackson battled injuries. The last we saw of him was in a playoff matchup against the Bengals, almost leading Baltimore to an upset on the road.
He shined in the matchup, throwing for 226 yards and two touchdowns while running for 54 yards. Pittsburgh allowed Geno Smith to have a respectable day last week, as he completed nearly 70% of his passes for 290 yards and a touchdown while scrambling for 33 yards.
Huntley’s rushing ability and cheap price make him the top overall option on the slate.
George Pickens is the highest-priced player on the slate after back-to-back great performances against the Bengals and Seahawks. He caught four of six targets for 195 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals and followed that up with seven catches for 131 yards against Seattle.
Pickens has held a healthy 31% target share with Mason Rudolph under center, and he caught six of 10 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown against a healthy Ravens’ defense in Week 5.
Rudolph was efficient against Seattle last week, completing 75% of his passes for 274 yards, averaging over 11 yards per attempt. That was against a weak Seattle defense, as he’s now matched up with the Ravens, who have allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks.
However, Baltimore will be missing a few starters on defense due to injuries and rest, so it is a softer landing spot than usual.
Gus Edwards comes in very expensive, but he’s expected to have a very light day, rendering him unplayable in this spot.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Diontae Johnson leads the midrange, and he’s taken a seat to Pickens as of late. He caught just two of five targets for 15 yards against the Bengals in Week 16. He still managed a solid day in Week 17, catching all four of his targets for 76 yards.
It’s hard to justify not just finding the salary for Pickens, as Johnson has just a 22% target rate per route run and a 20% target share with Rudolph under center. He may go slightly overlooked, which is the main point working in his favor.
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren both had season-highs in touches against Seattle, with Harris handling 27 carries and Warren seeing 13 carries and four targets.
We’ve been calling for Warren to surpass Harris, but it appears this backfield split is pretty set. Harris is leaned on more on the ground, with Warren mixing in and serving as the change of pace and passing down back. Warren has had slightly more usage around the goal line, which is promising, but Harris is still the goal line back.
Baltimore has allowed the 11th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs, but as I’ve highlighted, they’re likely to be shorthanded. Harris is still dependent on finding the end zone, but if you think Pittsburgh wins this game, I’d play Harris. If you’re expecting more of a back-and-forth affair or a Baltimore victory, I’d prioritize Warren.
Isaiah Likely caught two touchdowns last week, but it’s unclear how much run he’ll have. He’ll almost surely be active, but he’s a big part of the offense, so Baltimore will probably try to keep him out of harm’s way.
Justice Hill has taken more of the receiving back role now with J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell sidelined. However, similarly to Edwards, I’m not expecting him to see much work in this spot. Melvin Gordon III is expected to lead the backfield and become one of the top overall options on the slate against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 13th-most DraftKings points to opposing backs.
Pat Freiermuth has been mostly a non-factor this year outside of a 120-yard performance against the Bengals in Week 12. Baltimore has been stout against tight ends, but Freiermuth is cheap and, hypothetically, should be a threat around the goal line.
Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor will likely be the starters for Baltimore but may see a similar fate as Likely. If they were going to play the whole game, they’d be smashes at their respective prices. However, I’m expecting them to be pulled a little early,
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Allen Robinson II ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Allen Robinson has been playing on about two-thirds of the offensive snaps but hasn’t seen much volume. There isn’t too much of a need for value on this slate, but he’s viable
- Charlie Kolar ($800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): I’m expecting Likely to have a light day, so Kolar could be in line for some extended run.
- Tylan Wallace ($200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): With Odell and Zay Flowers inactive, Wallace is likely in line to see a lot of snaps. He also returns kicks and punts, so you could get points if he was able to take one to the house.
