Saturday’s Wild Card doubleheader comes to a close with a big AFC matchup between the Chiefs and Dolphins. The Chiefs are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This showdown slate is as star-studded as they come, with Tyreek Hill leading the way against his old team. Hill’s target volume has been unsurprisingly hefty as of late, with 14, 12, and 13 targets over the past three weeks.
Hill’s volume is incredible, but this matchup is imposing. Kansas City allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WR1s and the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers as a whole. Hill was held in check when these teams last played, catching eight of ten targets for 62 yards.
Kansas City plays a lot of man coverage, and Hill saw a 60% target rate per route run against man coverage in Week 9. However, I’m wary about Hill despite all of the volume. Kansas City held him in check in a dome across the world. This game will have wind chills below zero degrees, with Kansas City at home. I’m not that confident in Tua Tagovailoa‘s arm in this spot.
Hill has a huge price tag, and Jaylen Waddle is expected back, which should cut into Hill’s target share a little bit. My first click on this slate will be Patrick Mahomes, as he’ll have all day to throw against this defense.
Mahomes only had 16.8 DraftKings points in Week 9, but that was against an entirely different Dolphins defense.
Miami is down their top two edge rushers, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips, and both starting linebackers, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. The loss of Baker is extremely painful, as he’s been great in coverage. Mike McDaniel also said that they’re not planning for Xavien Howard to suit up this weekend.
Miami may opt to go blitz-heavy since they’ve been unable to pressure quarterbacks since Phillips and Chubb went down. Mahomes struggled against the blitz in the first matchup, averaging just 4.6 yards per attempt when Miami sent extra rushers.
However, with Travis Kelce having a full week of rest and the emergence of Rashee Rice, I’m not worried about Mahomes in this spot. I think Mahomes will sit back and pick apart this defense, and Kelce should run wild over the middle with Baker out. Baker had the highest PFF coverage grade of the Miami linebackers on the year.
The Dolphins have already allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, and the matchup is now easier.
Miami allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers, and Rice has seen 27% of the team targets over the final six games. Over that stretch, Rice averaged an impressive 19.63 DraftKings points per game and an elite 16.63 mark if you remove touchdowns.
The Dolphins are optimistic that Raheem Mostert will suit up after missing the past two games. He and De’Von Achane have hefty price tags if both are healthy, but Kansas City is vulnerable on the ground, and Miami ran all over them in the first matchup.
Both backs were listed as limited in practice on Wednesday, but it appears that Mostert is the only one actually in danger of missing. I prefer Achane if both are healthy, and he becomes a very strong option if Mostert sits.
I somewhat glossed over Tagovailoa, but he’s not a priority for me on this slate. I far prefer Mahomes, Rice, and Hill, as well as Kelce and a few other options in the midrange, who I’ll touch on next.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Isiah Pacheco leads the midrange and looks like one of the top overall options on a slate that is jam-packed with good plays.
He had a monopoly over the Kansas City offense in Week 17, carrying the ball 18 times for 130 yards and catching all seven of his targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. Pacheco was unproductive on a per-touch basis in Week 9 against Miami, totaling 66 rushing yards on 16 carries.
The biggest news for Pacheco is that Jerick McKinnon remains on IR. In the three games that McKinnon missed earlier this year, Pacheco ran a route on 66% of the team dropbacks, compared to just 40% in all the other games.
Jaylen Waddle is expected to return for Miami after missing two games with an ankle injury. When Kansas City gave up production to receivers, it was usually a secondary option.
Waddle only had three catches for 42 yards when these teams played in Week 9, but he only played on 54% of the snaps due to an ankle injury. If you expect Waddle to be healthy and effective, he’s a very strong option. If you’re bearish on Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr. played 96% of the snaps last week with Waddle out, and Braxton Berrios played 46%.
Berrios has been the team’s slot man, with Wilson providing depth on the outside. If Waddle suits up, it’ll likely be at Wilson Jr.’s expense, as Berrios’ snap count has stayed pretty steady all year.
Now to the always exciting Chiefs’ wide receiver room. Justin Watson seemed to have a stranglehold over the WR2 role, but he played on just 44% of the snaps in Week 17, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling played on 70% of the snaps, seeing three targets and catching one ball for three yards. I far prefer MVS to Watson for far cheaper.
Behind them is where it gets interesting, as Kadarius Toney is questionable after missing the past three weeks. Richie James Jr. seems to have taken over the gadgety role with Toney sidelined. Mecole Hardman Jr. also may start to be hit involved. If Toney plays, he’d be my favorite of the bunch.
Durham Smythe has benefitted from all the WR injuries in Miami, with three or more targets in five straight games. However, I’m not expecting much usage for him if Waddle is back, as Miami will likely lean on their top dogs in a playoff game.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Jeff Wilson Jr. ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): If Mostert and Achane play, he’s thin, but Wilson did see nine carries last week with Mostert sidelined.
- Noah Gray ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Gray has been floating around a 40-60% snap share for most of the season and also benefits from the same matchup that Kelce has.
- Justyn Ross ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): It’s unclear if he’ll even suit up or if he’ll touch the field if he does suit up. However, he started to see a little more work early at the end season, and played on 17 snaps in Weeks 16+17.
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