Wild Card weekend kicks off with an AFC matchup between the Texans and Browns in Houston. The Browns are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
C.J. Stroud leads the way on this Showdown slate, fresh off a clutch performance against the Colts to get Houston into the postseason. He completed over 75% of his passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns, averaging over 10 yards per attempt.
I want to be optimistic about Stroud in this spot, but this is undoubtedly a tough matchup. Cleveland ranks second in DVOA against the pass of the year. However, they have allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game on the road.
He played against four other top 10 passing defenses, completing less than 60% of his passes for just 5.7 yards per attempt in those games. Cleveland had a 43% pressure rate when these teams played in Week 16. and Stroud hasn’t been great under duress. He still had a solid completion rate, but he averaged just six yards per attempt.
On the other end of the spectrum, Cleveland plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league, and Stroud averaged 8.8 yards per attempt versus man. If their offensive line can hold up, he should be able to have success. However, Cleveland’s defensive line could wreck this game.
Sticking with the quarterbacks, Joe Flacco projects for the most raw points despite being the fourth-highest-priced player. He’s averaged 26.17 DraftKings points per game over his past four, including a 29.82-point performance against this Houston defense in Week 16.
Houston has allowed the fourth-highest completion rate and yards per attempt to opposing passers. Cleveland has gone very pass-heavy with Flacco under center, and I don’t see that stopping. I’m still a little wary, as I’m not convinced Flacco can come off the couch and be an elite quarterback forever. However, Saturday night doesn’t appear like a matchup he’ll struggle with.
Next is a pair of stud receivers who are nearly identical in price and projection. We’ll start with Nico Collins, as Stroud’s top option shined in last week’s game. I highlighted Collins’ avenues to success in that matchup, and he didn’t let me down, catching all nine of his targets for 195 yards and a score.
This is a great role and player meeting a difficult matchup, as Cleveland has allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers. However, Collins has a 35% target share with Tank Dell off the field. He partners that with a 33% target rate per route run against man coverage. I’m betting on talent and volume in this spot.
The last time we saw Amari Cooper was in Week 16 against Houston. Mount St. Cooper erupted on that fine day, with the Browns’ top receiver catching 11-of-15 targets for 265 yards and two touchdowns en route to 54.5 DraftKings points.
Cooper has a 29% target rate per route run with Flacco under center and faces a Houston defense that has allowed the third-most yards per target to opposing perimeter receivers. It’s noteworthy that Cooper missed practice Wednesday, but he said he’ll be good to go for Saturday. Be sure to monitor Cooper’s status throughout the week.
The four top options look quite elite in this spot.
Devin Singletary rounds out the stud section, and he boasts a quietly elite role in the Houston backfield. He saw 25 touches last week, turning 24 carries and one target into 65 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
He’d seen 16, 31, 12, and 19 opportunities over the previous four games. Involving Singletary is clearly a goal of the offense, and he’s still likely to see 15 or so touches in negative game scripts. If the game stays close or Houston leads, Singletary can approach 25-30 touches with ease.
Cleveland has allowed the fewest yards per carry before contact but the most yards per carry after contact. What this means is that they’ll consistently stop backs at or around the line of scrimmage but will give up some explosive runs. They’ve allowed the 15th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs, sitting in the middle of the pack.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
David Njoku leads the midrange, and he’s been on a tear as of late. He’s averaging 23.57 DraftKings points over his past four games and is still elite at 17.57 DraftKings points per game if you remove touchdowns. His volume has been incredible, with 39 targets over the four-game stretch.
Houston’s defense funnels targets to tight ends, allowing the most receptions per game to the position. They’re a middling defense on a per-target defense, but they’re giving up a ton of volume and are matched against a talented tight end who has a 24.37% target share over the past four weeks.
Jerome Ford follows, and he takes most of the base-down rushing work while leaving the long-down-and-distance and a few goal-line snaps to Kareem Hunt. This isn’t a matchup to be excited about, as Houston has allowed the fifth-lowest success rate on opposing runs. Indianapolis gashed Houston last week, but it was the first time Houston had allowed a backfield to eclipse 100 yards since Week 4.
I don’t have much interest in either back. I prefer finding the salary up from Ford to Njoku or Singletary. Hunt is an alright value option, as his role near the goal line and in the passing game can allow him to pay off in just a few touches.
The Houston wide receiver room is still banged up, so it’s time to dive in. Noah Brown and Robert Woods missed last week’s game. Houston responded by utilizing just three receivers in Collins, John Metchie III, and Xavier Hutchinson.
Neither Metchie nor Hutchinson did much, combining for two catches for 11 yards on six targets. Houston did react as I expected, playing Brevin Jordan on nearly 50% of the snaps and Andrew Beck on about 25% of them. Jordan didn’t see a target, while Beck caught both of his targets for nine yards and a touchdown.
The moral of the story is no one really did anything with their playing time. I had speculated that Metchie was basically a replacement for Brown, and that seemed to reign true. In his past four full games, Brown played 74.62% of his snaps on the perimeter. Brown missed last week and played just seven snaps in Week 17. In those games, Metchie played 79% of his snaps from the perimeter.
Robert Woods has primarily been a slot receiver, but we saw him bump to the perimeter a little more in Week 17 after Noah Brown went down. We’ve also seen Metchie and Hutchinson both play somewhat in the slot and on the perimeter when they’re on the field. For what it’s worth, we saw Hutchinson operate mostly from the slot last week and Metchie on the perimeter.
Brown missed practice on Wednesday, while Woods was limited. I’m expecting Woods to play, while Brown is more of a game-time decision. I’d expect Metchie to see more time if either receiver misses, but he’s far more expensive than Hutchinson. If both receivers are out, Hutchinson becomes the best value play on the slate. If just one misses, I’d only recommend rostering one of Metchie/Hutchinson, as they cannibalize each other’s upside.
The reason that a slew of people didn’t do anything was because Dalton Schultz soaked up a lot of volume alongside Collins. Schultz saw seven targets, catching five balls for 42 yards. Cleveland has been susceptible against tight ends as of late. Schultz had 11 targets when these teams last played, but that was with Case Keenum under center, and Cleveland hasn’t given up volume to tight ends on the year, facing the lowest target rate to the position.
Elijah Moore is largely an afterthought for me, as he’s struggled to earn volume with Cooper on the field. He has just a 10% target rate per route run with Cooper on the field. However, if Cooper can’t recover from his heel injury and misses, we’ve seen Moore have a 38% target rate per route run with Flacco on the field and Cooper not.
Cedric Tillman rounds out 3-WR sets in Cleveland and has seen up-and-down production. He’s a little too expensive in my opinion, and if Cooper were to miss, I’d prefer David Bell, who’s earned targets when out there. Both of these guys are too expensive for their roles if the whole receiving room is healthy.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Brevin Jordan ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Jordan couldn’t get anything going last week but still figures to play close to 50% of the snaps and has multiple targets in five of the past seven games.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($400 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): I talked far too long about the Houston receivers earlier, but Hutchinson checks in as a solid value play at just above the minimum price on DraftKings.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NFL DFS Week 8 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections
Divisional Round NFL DFS QB Picks Breakdown: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, or Josh Allen?
slNFL Player Prop Picks for Cowboys-Giants on Sunday Night Football
NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Sep. 17) for Dolphins-Patriots SNF
