Two NFC contenders face off on Saturday Night, with the Cowboys hosting the Lions. The Cowboys are listed as 5.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 52.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Saturday night gives us a star-studded showdown slate, with two alpha receivers leading the way. CeeDee Lamb comes in as the highest-priced player on the slate, coming off of a solid performance against the Dolphins.
He caught six of 10 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown while taking two carries for 14 yards. It marked his fourth-straight game with double-digit targets, notching 47 targets over the stretch. Lamb has over 16.5 DraftKings points in every game since Week 6 and faces a Lions secondary that has allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has a tougher draw than Lamb, as Dallas has allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. The Cowboys run a heavy dose of man coverage, while St. Brown has a 30% target share against the coverage.
St. Brown has been tearing it up the past two weeks, with over 100 yards and a touchdown in both games. He has 58.5 DraftKings points over the stretch and has been above 18 in 11 of 14 games on the year.
Dallas has dropped two in a row, and Dak Prescott has put up middling numbers compared to his season-long averages. All the stars are aligning here, as Prescott comes home against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year.
The Lions have allowed the third-most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks since their bye in Week 9. Prescott and Lamb are neck-and-neck for the highest-projecting player on the slate.
Despite six games above 20 DraftKings points on the season, Jared Goff just doesn’t compare to the other three studs in my eyes. Dallas’s defense has been a little leaky as of late, but they’ve still allowed the tenth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing signal callers.
Goff’s splits have been far worse against pressure on the year, and Dallas has the highest pressure rate in the league. They also play the highest rate of man coverage, and 83% of Goff’s touchdown passes on the year have come against zone coverage. I’m expecting elevated passing volume from Detroit, but Goff is my least favorite of the four players above $10,000.
Jahmyr Gibbs has posted a few good weeks in a row, with four touchdowns over the past three weeks and 70 DraftKings points over that stretch. Last week was interesting in the Detroit backfield, as David Montgomery out-touched Gibbs 13 to five in the first half. Gibbs proceeded to handle 14 touches to just six for Montgomery in the second half, with both backs seeing 19 for the game.
Dallas has allowed the 11th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs on the year. Buffalo carved them up on the ground two weeks ago, but they held Miami’s backs in check last week. I like Montgomery for game scripts that have Detroit winning, but Gibbs in builds that plan for a Dallas win.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Tony Pollard continues to own one of the most valuable roles in fantasy and fails to produce. He has 13 DraftKings points over the past two weeks and has failed to reach 10 DraftKings points in seven different games. This isn’t exactly a spot to expect efficiency, as Detroit has allowed the third-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs on the year.
He’s a strong play due to his affordable price and elite role. Hopefully, he’s able to luck into some efficiency or touchdowns on Saturday.
After his three-touchdown performance against Denver, Sam LaPorta flopped against the Vikings, catching all three of his targets for 18 yards. Dallas has allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, but this matchup actually bodes in his favor.
LaPorta has the second-highest target share against man coverage at 24% and has seen 24% of the targets when Goff has been under pressure. He’s a strong play on Saturday Night.
Jake Ferguson has seen eight targets in four straight games and gets a plus matchup against Detroit. They’ve allowed the twelfth-most yards per target and eleventh-most yards per game to opposing tight ends. All three of these options at the high end of the midrange are very appealing.
Brandin Cooks has been a little hit-or-miss this season for Dallas, but he came up big last week, catching a fourth-quarter touchdown from Prescott last week. Detroit has been shredded by receivers, ranking in the bottom six in yards per target and touchdown rate to perimeter receivers, where Cooks runs his routes.
Jameson Williams has quietly carved out a role for himself in this offense, with seven and six targets the past two weeks while playing on about 60% of the snaps. He’s cheap and carries big play upside. We’ll likely see him priced higher on future showdowns, making me interested in playing him now.
I prefer Williams to Josh Reynolds, although both are cheap and viable. Goff trusts Reynolds, but the offense is trying to scheme the ball into Williams’ hands, making me more interested there.
Michael Gallup continues to play on about 50% of the snaps while having minimal production. He’s popped off in a couple of spots this year but likely needs a touchdown to reach value. He’s behind Lamb, Ferguson. and Cooks in the target pecking order.
Kalif Raymond sees about a third of the offensive snaps, and he hasn’t produced much in the fantasy department. He’s priced too close to Jameson Williams, who has a legitimate role in the offense.
Kavontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert round out the Dallas WR room. Tolbert plays on about 40% of the snaps and has big play upside. Turpin is a bit more of a gadget guy who sees schemed touches, with one catch and one carry last week.
I prefer Tolbert, but both are viable.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Deuce Vaughn ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): With Rico Dowdle out, it’s unclear whether it’ll be Vaughn or Malik Davis ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel) backing up Tony Pollard. I’d expect Vaughn, who would become interesting at a cheap price.
