Saturday football is back! We have two games on Saturday, with the first being an AFC North showdown between the Bengals and Steelers in Pittsburgh. The Bengals are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 38 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
With Ja’Marr Chase ruled out, Tee Higgins comes in as the most expensive player on Saturday’s showdown slate. Higgins only caught four balls last week but had 61 yards and two touchdowns, including one acrobatic catch followed by an extension into the end zone.
It was a small sample size last game with Higgins in and Chase out, but Higgins saw just three targets on 14 routes with Chase sidelined. Over the past three years, Higgins has a 24% target rate per route run with Chase off the field compared to 20% with them playing together.
The matchup is middling, with Pittsburgh allowing the 15th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. I’m not too interested in paying a slate-high price tag for Higgins.
Ah, my good friend Joe Mixon. He found the end zone last week to save his day, as he ran for 47 yards and caught three balls for 14 yards.
The real warning sign wasn’t with Mixon’s efficiency, as he’s consistently been inefficient. He only handled 52% of the backfield touches last week, as he’s dropped from 73% –> 67% –> 52% over the past three games.
The good news is that Pittsburgh has gotten trampled by opposing backs. They gave up over 200 yards to Indianapolis backs last week and were ravaged by Ezekiel Elliott two weeks ago. The matchup is great, and I prefer Mixon to Higgins, but Mixon isn’t a slam dunk by any means.
I was bearish on Jake Browning’s outlook in last week’s matchup with the Vikings, but he showed out. He completed 29 of 42 passes for 324 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
Browning had just 13 DraftKings points when these teams played in Week 12, but he did average 8.7 yards per attempt. Pittsburgh will be without Minkah Fitzpatrick and Damontae Kazee, and they’ve given up big scores to Bailey Zappe and Gardner Minshew recently. However, Browning will be without Chase. I’m not clamoring for him, but I prefer Browning to Higgins and Mixon.
Mason Rudolph will get the start for Pittsburgh on Saturday. It’s hard to get too excited about his skill set, but the matchup is exploitable. Cincinnati has allowed the second most yards per attempt and just gave up over 300 yards to Nick Mullens. We also saw Kenny Pickett throw for a career-high in yardage and average 8.4 yards per attempt when these teams last played.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Jaylen Warren has finally usurped Najee Harris in the Pittsburgh backfield. Warren handled 10 carries and six targets, while Harris had 12 carries and no targets. One of the biggest developments was Warren having two touches in goal-to-go situations compared to just one for Harris.
For a while, we’ve seen Warren be more efficient, with Harris handling the goal-line touches. If Warren is going to cut into the goal line work, then this is no longer a 1A and 1B situation. Warren is the preferred back, and Harris is off my radar. Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most yards per carry on the season and just lost D.J. Reader for the year. With Reader out of the lineup last week, Ty Chandler ran for 132 yards, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
George Pickens got off to a hot start last week but finished the game with just three catches for 47 yards on seven targets. Diontae Johnson caught four of six targets, going for 62 yards and a touchdown. It was his third straight game finding the end zone. Johnson saw 13 targets in Rudolph’s last start, so we could see Johnson get peppered again.
I love the big play ability of Pickens, but with repeated quarterback downgrades and the existing connection between Rudolph and Johnson, I prefer the veteran.
Tyler Boyd saw three targets with Chase out of the game last week, the same as Higgins. His splits with and without Chase haven’t been much different over the past few years, but he should see a few more looks here. He’s viable but not a priority.
Chase Brown has chiseled away at Mixon’s lion’s share over the backfield and has handled 21 touches over the past two weeks. The workload has consistently increased, with 26.5%, 30.6%, and 40% of the touches over the past three weeks. Pittsburgh has been ravaged by opposing backs, and Brown is explosive. He’s a strong midrange option.
It’s been three straight stinkers for Pat Freiermuth, with less than seven DraftKings points in three straight games. Rudolph has targeted tight ends at a lower rate than Trubisky and Pickett, but Freiermuth benefits from a mouthwatering matchup.
Cincinnati has allowed the most catches per game and DraftKings points to tight ends, as well as the second most yards per target. I prefer Brown for $200 more, but Freiermuth is a strong play.
The Cincinnati tight end room is still a rotation, but Tanner Hudson climbed to 47% route participation last week. He caught all five of his targets for 49 yards and has seen four or more targets in six of his past seven games. Pittsburgh has allowed the fourteenth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. The matchup is nothing special, but Hudson is cheap.
Allen Robinson II saw three targets for the third straight game. There’s still not much interest here, as he’s low on the totem pole on an offense that is starting another new quarterback.
Calvin Austin III has appealing explosiveness but played just nine snaps last game without a single touch.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Andrei Iosivas ($800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Iosivas comes in very cheap, and ran the most routes (10) on dropbacks once Chase exited. Trenton Irwin is a more popular name but ran a route on just four dropbacks.
- Mitchell Wilcox ($400 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Mitchell Wilcox is very cheap again and caught two balls for 20 yards last week. If in need of a total punt, he’s the second option after Iosivas.
