Saturday gives us a few showdown slates to sweat, the first one coming in Cincinnati between the Bengals and Vikings. The Bengals are listed as 3-point home favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Two of the top receivers in the league lead this showdown slate, with college teammates Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase leading their respective teams.
Starting with Chase, it’s been a mixed bag of performances with Jake Browning under center. Browning has been the guy for four games, and Chase has totaled 9.2, 12.1, 34.62, and 5.9 DraftKings points.
The 34.62-point performance came against Jacksonville, and his defender fell, leading to a 76-yard touchdown. If you remove that play, Chase had 10 catches for 73 yards, totaling 17.3 DraftKings points. It’s hard to just eliminate big plays like that with a guy like Chase, as he’s proven he’s consistently capable of doing that.
This also isn’t the typical situation where a stud receiver has a backup quarterback. Browning has been slinging it as of late, with back-to-back top-five scoring weeks. He’s averaged 9.8 yards per attempt over the past three weeks, which is second in the league.
However, he leads the league in the percentage of passes to come at or behind the line of scrimmage, which plays right into Minnesota’s favor. They play a zone-heavy defense that is designed to keep everything in front of them while sending extra rushers to force the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly. Minnesota has allowed the tenth-fewest yards per completion and has surrendered just two top-10 fantasy scores since Week 3.
Back to Chase, he’s seen just a 19% target share against zone compared to 32% against man coverage. Minnesota plays zone coverage on over 75% of their snaps, which isn’t great for Chase.
DJ Moore caught 11 balls for 114 yards, and Chris Olave had 94 yards and a touchdown against this defense. Despite the Xs and Os not matching up perfectly, Chase is a big play threat and can make a house call from anywhere on the field.
The story with Joe Mixon remains the same despite differing box scores. He’s not very efficient with his touches, but when he sees enough volume and/or finds the end zone, he can pay off his tag. He caught six balls for 49 yards and found the end zone twice on the ground in Week 13, which was more than enough. Last week, he ran for 79 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries but caught three balls for 46 yards, which put him over 20 DraftKings points.
Minnesota has allowed the seventh-fewest DraftKings points to opposing backs, and Mixon’s usage is trending in the wrong direction. He’s gotten hot finding the end zone recently, but he’s handled just 73% and 67% of the backfield touches over the past two weeks. Cincinnati has utilized their backs a lot, so this still amounted to 25 and 24 touches.
The Vikings have allowed the fourth fewest yards per carry, so we can likely expect Mixon to remain inefficient. His highest receiving totals all came in the last three weeks, as he eclipsed 30 yards through the air just three times before Week 12.
Cincinnati’s offense has been efficient as of late, but this will be by far their toughest test with Browning under center, and Mixon is reliant on overall offensive success to post a good score. I’m looking to fade him and hope the touchdowns go elsewhere.
We finally circle back to Justin Jefferson, and it was a short-lived return to the field for him last week. He caught two of three targets for 27 yards last week in his first appearance since Week 5. Sadly, he took a hard hit and got hurt on his 13th offensive snap. We’ll see how his connection is with Nick Mullens, but I’m optimistic.
Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, the second-most yards per attempt, and yards per completion this year. However, they haven’t given up many touchdowns and have the eighth-most interceptions. They’re due for some negative regression, and Kevin O’Connell is a competent play-caller with now a close-to-full stable of weapons.
Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and second-most yards per catch. There aren’t many more dangerous than Justin Jefferson, and I’m expecting a big game out of him.
My order of preference for these five is Jefferson, Chase, Mullens, Browning, and Mixon.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
T.J. Hockenson has stayed consistent for Minnesota, with over 50 receiving yards in nine straight games. He quickly showed a rapport with Mullens last week, catching four balls for 45 yards. We’ll see how much volume Hockenson can command with Jefferson back on the field, but the matchup is pristine.
Cincinnati has allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends, including the most receptions per game and second-most yards per target. Hockenson is a very strong option on Saturday.
Tee Higgins has been mostly quiet since returning to the lineup in Week 13. He’s caught five of seven targets for 108 yards over the past two weeks. Browning hasn’t shown much interest in looking in his direction, but that certainly could change. He isn’t on my shortlist as a priority, but he’s a viable tournament target.
Jordan Addison saw one target on his 13 routes with Mullens under center last week. Addison profiles similarly to Higgins from a DFS perspective. He’s a talented No. 2 with a low floor and a high ceiling who’s overshadowed by an elite alpha receiver. He’s failed to top 11 DraftKings points in the past five games without Cousins, but maybe that changes with Mullens under center.
With Alexander Mattison ruled out, it’ll be Ty Chandler leading the Minnesota backfield. Minnesota’s backfield has been fairly inefficient as a whole this year, but there are few mouths to feed. Myles Gaskin and Kene Nwangwu are behind Chandler, but neither is much of a threat to steal work.
Cincinnati has allowed the second-most yards per carry to opposing backs but has allowed less than three yards per carry over the past two games.
K.J. Osborn falls further down the target pecking order with Jefferson’s return. There isn’t much interest here as he remains too expensive as the fourth option in the passing game.
Tyler Boyd profiles similarly to Osborn. I prefer Boyd, as he’s shown he can flash upside even in crowded receiving rooms. With Minnesota running a very zone-heavy defense, his usage underneath could spike.
The Cincinnati tight end room remains a monstrosity, with four guys playing between 12 and 19 snaps. Drew Sample led the way with 19 snaps and caught two balls for 4 yards. Tanner Hudson caught two of three targets for 21 yards and a touchdown but played just 13 snaps. He’s a little bit expensive for his role.
Chase Brown has run well the past two weeks and has eaten into Mixon’s workload. He had nine carries in Week 13, totaling 61 yards. He had 25 yards on eight carries last week, but caught three balls 80 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown.
He’s seen 26% and 31% of the backfield touches the past two weeks, carving out a solid role. He’s an intriguing tournament option.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Myles Gaskin ($1,000 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): It’s unclear whether it will be Gaskin or Nwangwu ($200) backing up Chandler. Pay attention to pregame reports, as one of them could become viable with some promising reports.
- Mitchell Wilcox ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): Mitchell Wilcox comes in at the minimum price and takes part in Cincinnati’s concoction of a tight end room. He saw one target last week, with one catch for 0 yards on 12 snaps.
