Pittsburgh travels to Indianapolis to face the Steelers in the second game of Saturday’s triple-header. The Colts are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Michael Pittman Jr. and Zack Moss stand out as the two top options on this showdown slate.
Pittman’s usage has been nothing short of elite over the past four games. He has averaged 13 targets per game, averaging 21.02 DraftKings points per game without touchdowns over the past month.
We know his role is rock solid, so the question is whether or not this matchup will provide any resistance. Pittsburgh has been middle-of-the-pack against opposing receivers, allowing the 16th-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers.
The Steelers play the fifth-highest rate of man coverage in the league, which bodes very well for Pittman. He has a 32.5% target share against man coverage compared to 26% against zone coverage. There are no holes to poke in his outlook, as he’s a great option on Saturday.
Pivoting to Moss. Pittsburgh has allowed the 14th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs, but they’ve been shredded by some middling backs as of late. James Conner had 105 yards and two touchdowns two weeks ago, and Ezekiel Elliott looked as spry as ever with 140 yards and a touchdown last Thursday night.
Moss’ volume is undeniable, with 22 and 21 opportunities in the past two games, including 11 targets. He’s right next to Pittman as one of the top overall options on the slate.
Pittsburgh allowed Bailey Zappe to carve them up last week, but they’ve still allowed the tenth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Gardner Minshew is my third favorite of the trio of Colts, but his outlook is still great. With how consolidated this offense is, I’m more than fine rostering both Moss and Pittman without Minshew.
Mitch Trubisky rounds out the stud section, coming off of a solid performance against the Patriots. He threw for 190 yards and a touchdown and ran for 30 yards and a score on the ground en route to 21.6 DraftKings points.
The Colts don’t get much pressure on the quarterback, and they run the lowest rate of man coverage in the league. We’ll see how Trubisky responds, as he’s likely forced to sit back and make throws.
My current priority is the two Indianapolis studs, with both quarterbacks following with no clear lean to Minshew or Trubisky.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
A duo of Colts led the stud section and now a duo of Steelers lead the midrange. Diontae Johnson and George Pickens come next, with both struggling to get much going as of late.
Johnson has been able to find the end zone in back-to-back weeks but has totaled just 14.7 and 13.3 DraftKings points. Pickens has maintained his big-play ability, with catches of 43 yards and 38 yards over the past three weeks. He caught five of six targets against the Patriots for 19 yards.
Johnson has a team-high 31% target share against Cover-3, which Indianapolis deploys on over 50% of their snaps. The Colts have allowed the 12th-most yards per target and ninth-most yards per catch to opposing receivers.
Despite Johnson’s target volume against Cover-3, my preference is with Pickens. I’m interested in the big play ability and am expecting him to be lower-owned.
The Steelers keep coming, with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren coming next. This backfield is almost a full 50/50 split, with Harris handling 15 touches and Warren seeing 11 last week.
Warren has been more efficient for the full year and handles more passing work. However, this offense isn’t super efficient as a whole, and Harris handles the ever-so-valuable goalline touches. This may be an unpopular opinion, but with their ownership and prices so close, I’m going to take Harris. The goalline touches are too valuable to pass up, in my opinion.
Josh Downs has been in Michael Pittman’s shadow as of late, with just eight targets and 10.6 total DraftKings points over the past two games. The good news for Downs is that Pittsburgh has been roasted by slot receivers, allowing the second-most yards per target to them on the year.
Alec Pierce plays a near-every-down role for Indianapolis but just can’t earn targets. He has just a 10% target rate per route run on the year. He had a 22-point performance in Week 13 but has failed to top 8.3 DraftKings points in any other game this year. He’s viable but not particularly interesting.
Pat Freiermuth‘s explosion in Week 12 turned out to be a flash in the pan, as he has just six catches for 47 yards in the two games since. His route participation was promising, running a route on 83% of the team dropbacks last week. He’s certainly viable as a touchdown-or-bust option.
The Colts tight end room is one to behold, with Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Will Mallory, and Drew Ogletree all rotating. Granson and Mallory ran the most routes, with Mallor catching five balls for 46 yards. Alie-Cox caught a touchdown but has just seven receptions this year. Mallory is my preferred option of this group.
Allen Robinson II and Calvin Austin III round out the Pittsburgh receiving room at nearly identical prices. Robinson played on 59% of the snaps last week, catching one of three targets for 21 yards. He’s been practically a non-factor, failing to top eight DraftKings points in a game since Week 1.
Austin III has hovered in the 25% snap range but hasn’t been able to earn much volume. I prefer Austin of the two. Although Robinson likely has a higher floor, Austin has big play ability and sees manufactured touches in the rushing game as well.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Darnell Washington ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Washington has primarily been a blocker, but he did see two targets last week and comes in very cheap.
