Saturday’s triple-header comes to a close with Russell Wilson and the Broncos traveling to Detroit to face the Lions. The Lions are listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
It’s been a couple of down weeks in a row for Amon-Ra St. Brown, with just five catches for 70 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks. He’s still commanded solid volume, with 15 targets over that stretch.
Last week he may have just been a victim to Jared Goff‘s outdoor struggles. ARSB gets a better spot here at home, where his quarterback is more comfortable.
However, this matchup is a little daunting, with Denver allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s. He’s still one of the top options on the slate for sure, but there’s reason for concern.
It hasn’t been pretty for Goff as of late, with less than 17 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. His lone solid score came on Thanksgiving against the Packers, where he reached the 300-yard bonus and threw a touchdown on a garbage time drive at the very end of the game.
Denver has allowed just seven passing touchdowns over the past nine games and has stymied the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and C.J. Stroud. This defense has been the biggest part of their turnaround this season.
Russell Wilson is the lone player who can rival Goff and St. Brown’s median projections. He’s my favorite option of these three, with Detroit allowing the third-most yards per attempt and sixth-most passing touchdowns over the past seven games.
The only problem comes with volume, as Denver loves to sit on the ball. Wilson tends to only throw a ton when they’re trailing. He’s topped 30 attempts just twice since Week 5. However, he’s likely to be efficient in this spot, with Detroit struggling to contain opposing quarterbacks.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery get a mouth-watering matchup against Denver, who’s allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs.
Gibbs has started to edge Montgomery in playing time, playing on 63% of snaps compared to 35% for Montgomery last week. However, the snap split isn’t too important, as the touch count was 14 to 13 in favor of Gibbs.
They’ve split the goal-to-go snaps evenly since Montgomery returned, which is a good sign for Gibbs fans. Detroit is likely to lean run-heavy, and both backs should see a lot of volume. I give a slight lean to Gibbs, as I think Denver has a good shot of winning this game. Montgomery is preferred slightly in builds that focus on a Detroit win.
The Chargers are unable to do anything on the ground, and even their backs totaled 125 yards and a touchdown on the ground last week.
I’d like to figure out how Courtland Sutton keeps salvaging his scores with long touchdowns. Sutton is yet to exceed 100 yards and has seen just six targets per game. However, he keeps racking up the touchdowns, and this secondary is porous. Detroit has allowed the 12th-most yards per game and eighth-most yards per catch to opposing receivers over the past seven games.
I’m going to continue fading him and let him burn me. You can do what you want.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
Sam LaPorta ravaged the Saints in Week 13 and then came crashing down to earth last week. He caught nine balls for 140 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans and then caught just two of six targets for 23 yards in Chicago. The matchup is promising, with Denver allowing the third-most receptions per game and second-most yards per target to tight ends.
Javonte Williams will be another prime contributor to the volume vs. matchup discussion. Detroit has allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points per game and third-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs on the year. However, he still saw 21 opportunities, giving him 21, 16, and 24 over the past three weeks.
With Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine in the picture to siphon work in negative game scripts, there is reason for concern. However, I’m optimistic about Denver and am high on Javonte in this spot.
If building for a Detroit lead, I’d side with Perine over McLaughlin. He saw five targets last week and is leaned on more in passing situations than McLaughlin.
Jerry Jeudy, man, what happened? I’ve been trying to wish you into success this year on showdown slates, and you’ve done nothing but let me down. Big drops over the past few weeks have diminished your outlook, and you’ve topped 10 DraftKings points just once over the past five games.
Am I going to buy back in? Yep! I’m confident in Denver’s outlook in the passing game, and I’m bearish on Sutton as he’s been fairly lucky this year. This leads me to Jeudy, who had a huge drop and couldn’t get his second foot in bounds on a touchdown last week.
People are likely to avoid him, and I’m happy to take the ownership discount.
Josh Reynolds is currently questionable with a back injury but is coming off of one of his best games of the year. He caught three of four targets for 44 yards and a touchdown. Goff clearly rusts him, as he leads the team in end-zone targets. He’s a viable midrange option who will likely go overlooked.
The Broncos’ tight end room is pretty fruitless, but Adam Trautman leads the way. He’s a touchdown or bust option, but he has found the end zone in two of his past three games, for what it’s worth.
Marvin Mims Jr. and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the Denver receiving room, with Mims seeing 11 targets over the past four games, and Humphrey seeing one target in each of the past five contests. I prefer Mims if you have the salary, but Humphrey is an okay punt option.
Kalif Raymond and Jameson Williams close out Detroit’s pass-catching corps. Williams has now solidified his role, playing on 50-60% of the snaps weekly. Raymond has hovered around the 25% mark but saw 35% last week.
Raymond has done a better job earning targets, with five in Week 12 and four last week. Williams maintains big play upside and sees some usage on the ground. He’s my preferred option, but both are viable.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Brandon Johnson ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Johnson has returned to the lineup and played on 15% and 16% of snaps over the past two weeks. He hasn’t seen a target, but he’s worth mentioning.
