Sunday Night Football in Week 5 features a showdown between two of the most storied franchises in NFL history. The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Dallas Cowboys, and those two squads have combined for 11 Super Bowl victories. The Steelers are off to a solid 3-1 start this season, and they’re currently listed as 2.5-point home favorites.
The Cowboys haven’t been nearly as fortunate. They’re 2-2, but their defense is in shambles, and they will be missing two of their best players in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. It’s the first missed game of Parsons’ career, so they’re facing an uphill battle.
Will the Steelers take advantage, or can the Cowboys pull off the upset? Let’s dive in.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
While the Steelers are favored in this matchup, the Cowboys are the team with the marquee fantasy players. It starts with CeeDee Lamb, who was the No. 1 receiver in fantasy last season. He hasn’t been quite as dominant to start the new year, but he’s still the No. 14 receiver in PPR points per game.
Lamb had a quiet start to the year, which led to a confrontation between him and quarterback Dak Prescott in Week 3. Lamb later apologized for his outburst, but it appears as though his voice was heard. He was much more involved in the passing attack in Week 4, racking up a season-high 31% target share and 40% air-yards share. Lamb also moved all over the formation, including getting snaps in the backfield, so the Cowboys were more committed to getting him the football.
Lamb’s numbers in Week 4 much more closely resembled his output from 2023. He had a 30% target share and 37% air-yards share last season, so it’s reasonable to expect that kind of production moving forward. That’s particularly true with Brandin Cooks landing on the IR.
From a matchup standpoint, Pittsburgh is not a team you typically want to pick on. They’re sixth in defensive EPA this season, though they were a bit exposed by the Colts last week. They also drop to No. 10 in EPA vs. the pass.
Lamb is far from a must-play at his current salary, but he stands out on a slate without a ton of stud options.
Prescott is the other stud to consider on this slate, though his production has been far from stud-like this season. He has a positive Plus/Minus in just one game, and that was solely due to garbage time vs. the Ravens. He was unable to do anything in that contest before it got out of hand and he rallied in the fourth quarter.
While the matchup isn’t great for Lamb, it’s downright awful for Prescott. The Steelers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, and Prescott’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -8.8 is the worst mark on the slate.
This is also the type of spot where Prescott has historically struggled. He’s been at his best at home and as a favorite, so he’s unsurprisingly faltered as a road underdog. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -3.14 in that split (per the Trends tool).
Still, Prescott is a quarterback, and quarterbacks are always going to have appeal in the single-game format. But, for his price tag, it’s tough to get excited about him in this matchup.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
While Prescott has been a disappointment this season, Justin Fields has been a pleasant surprise. He probably wouldn’t have opened the year as the team’s starting quarterback if not for an injury to Russell Wilson, but he’s seized control of the job with his play on the field.
That said, his fantasy output is a bit of a mixed bag. It’s not a coincidence that his best game of the year came in the team’s only loss. In their three wins, he’s finished with 11.94, 11.38, and 19.4 DraftKings points.
Of course, Fields still brings elite athleticism to the table. He’s one of the best runners in football, and he’s averaged 36.3 yards with three touchdowns through the first four games. That’s despite an average of just 3.6 yards per attempt, which is well below his career average (6.0).
With that kind of production on the ground, you can be a “game manager” at QB and still post respectable fantasy scores. Last week’s 35.98 DraftKings points feel like a clear outlier, but he’s still a very reasonable target at his current salary. He leads all players in terms of projected DraftKings Plus/Minus.
George Pickens is Fields’ No. 1 pass-catcher, which is a role that hasn’t historically produced a ton of value. Pickens has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his first four games, with last week’s contest as the lone exception.
However, Pickens has yet to find the end zone, which has obviously hindered his fantasy production. His underlying peripherals are outstanding with a 28% target share and 53% air-yards share, so he clearly has upside. He’s a bit overpriced at $9,600, but he has the highest ceiling projection among all non-QBs besides Lamb.
Najee Harris has been a major disappointment at the NFL level. He’s been a plodder for most of his career, and his only real value came from his massive workload as a rookie. He led the league with 390 touches, and he’s earned fewer touches in each subsequent year. He’s been even worse to start this season, averaging a career-low 3.4 yards per carry.
Even with Jaylen Warren sidelined, the coast is not clear for Harris to assume an every-down role. He lost touches and snaps to Cordarrelle Patterson and Aaron Shampklin last week vs. the Colts.
The lone saving grace for Harris in this spot is the matchup. The Cowboys are dead last in rush defense EPA, and they’re going to be even worse without Parsons. Harris owns a +3.5 Opponent Plus/Minus, which is the top mark on the slate. I don’t advocate for Harris very often, but this is the rare spot where he could live up to expectations.
Rico Dowdle has seized the Cowboys’ starting RB job away from Ezekiel Elliott, but his price makes him basically unplayable on DraftKings. The Cowboys are one of the worst running teams in football, and if not for a receiving touchdown last week, Dowdle’s fantasy production would be awful. He owns one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks across the industry.
Jake Ferguson missed the team’s Week 2 contest, but he’s been a staple of their passing attack since returning to the lineup. He’s racked up 18 total targets over the past two weeks, resulting in 13 catches for 144 yards. He’s ultimately had a 24% target share in those contests, which is one of the best marks in the league at the TE position.
He’s a worthy selection across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,500, and his 80% Bargain Rating is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate.
Pat Freiermuth is the other tight end in this matchup, and he’s another elite FanDuel option. He leads the way with an 88% Bargain Rating, and he’s displayed solid chemistry with Fields. His target share sits at 19% for the year, and he caught his first touchdown of the season last week. Fields has always enjoyed throwing to tight ends, so Freiermuth should stay relevant as long as he’s the QB. His DraftKings price tag isn’t ideal, but he has some paths to relevance on this slate.
Jalen Tolbert rounds out this price range, and he has the chance to step into a big role with Cooks sidelined. He’s already been a solid piece of the Cowboys passing attack, posting an 81% route participation, and he should see a few more targets with Cooks out of the picture. He’s already had two games with at least 13.2 DraftKings points this season, so his stock is clearly pointing up.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. I wouldn’t touch the Cowboys defense, but the other three are solid targets.
- Ezekiel Elliott ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Zeke played on just 18% of the Cowboys’ snaps last week, so his role in the offense is dwindling. He still has a puncher’s chance at scoring a TD, but it’s hard to see him returning value without one.
- Calvin Austin ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Austin is the Steelers’ No. 3 receiver, but he has just a smidge of upside with his big-play ability. He had a 35% air-yards share against the Chargers in Week 3.
- Van Jefferson ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Jefferson has consistently seen more routes than Austin this season, but he hasn’t done much with them. He has just an 8% target share for the year.
- KaVontae Turpin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – The Cowboys WR3 job is up for grabs, with Turpin and Jalen Brooks the two most likely candidates. Turpin is more of a gadget player, though he did catch a touchdown vs. the Ravens.
- Jalen Brooks ($2,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Brooks is the guy I would expect to get most of the WR3 snaps this week. That said, it remains to be seen if that role provides much value.
- Aaron Shampklin ($2,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Shampklin will serve as Harris’ primary backup with Warren and Patterson out of the lineup. He could be particularly relevant in pass-catching situations.
- Hunter Luepke ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Luepke is an RB/TE hybrid, and he’s emerged as the team’s clear top backfield option in pass-catching situations. He’s not going to get a ton of work each week, but he only needs a few grabs to potentially pay off this price tag.
