NFL Week 5 gets underway with an NFC South showdown on Thursday Night Football. The Atlanta Falcons will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with first place in the division up for grabs. The Falcons are listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.0 points.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This slate is a bit light on offensive firepower, with only two players priced in the five-figure range. Those players are both receivers for the Buccaneers: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Evans is the more expensive of the two, and based off historical production, that makes sense: Evans averaged 16.6 PPR points per game last season, while Godwin was at just 12.3. Evans led the team with a 24% target share and a 44% air yards share, while Godwin was at 23% and 26%, respectively. That meant that Evans had the higher ceiling, and he had the higher floor most weeks, too.
However, things have completely flipped in 2024. Through the first four weeks, Godwin is the guy who has been hogging the ball in Tampa. He’s posted a 27% target share, and he’s been at or above that figure in three of four weeks. He’s also already scored three touchdowns, which is the exact same mark he had in 17 games last year. Godwin is currently the No. 7 receiver in terms of PPR points per game, and he appears poised for a career year.
That said, Evans did show some signs of life in Week 4. After racking up nine total targets in Weeks 2 and 3, Evans easily led the team with 14 vs. the Eagles. He responded with eight catches and a touchdown, and he just narrowly missed eclipsing 100 yards. Overall, he had a monstrous 30% target share and 52% air yards share in that contest, so he still brings plenty of upside to the table.
Ultimately, Godwin holds the edge in our projections – especially at the slightly cheaper price point – but both players have appeal in this matchup. The Falcons are 19th in pass defense EPA per play, and the Buccaneers have had a pass-heavy philosophy under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. They’re at a +5% Dropback Over Expectation for the year, and they were at +10% last week vs. the Eagles.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Bijan Robinson headlines the midrange, and it’s his first game this season with a salary below $10,000 on DraftKings. However, it’s entirely deserved. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his first four games, and he’s yet to eclipse 16.2 DraftKings points.
We’ve also seen some discouraging usage signs start to veer their head. Robinson served as the Falcons’ bell-cow back through the first three weeks, racking up 66% of the carries and a 16% target share. That included virtually all of the short-yardage and goal-line work, which are the most valuable touches for running backs.
Unfortunately, Robinson has been far less efficient than Tyler Allgeier this season, who has started to eat into his workload. Robinson’s snap share dipped to just 61% in Week 4, and he finished with just 47% of the team’s rushing attempts. He also lost snaps on the passing downs for the first time all season.
The Falcons invested heavy draft capital into Robinson, so he’s not going away anytime soon. However, this might end up being more of a committee situation than initially anticipated.
The one saving grace for Robinson is the matchup. The Buccaneers are dead last in rush defense EPA, so Robinson doesn’t need a monster workload to potentially do damage. Despite the slightly troubling signs, Robinson still grades out as a fine option in our NFL Models.
Baker Mayfield has officially revived his career in Tampa Bay. There were some who thought last year might have been a fluke, but he’s been even better to start 2024. He’s the No. 3 quarterback in terms of fantasy points per game, and he’s racked up at least 19.8 DraftKings points in all but one outing.
With that in mind, this price feels a bit disrespectful to Baker. He’s thriving in this system, and he’s even displayed a bit of rushing upside this season: He’s averaged 16.3 yards per game with two total touchdowns.
Mayfield will take the field as a dog on Thursday, but that’s a role he’s thrived in with the Buccaneers. He’s averaged 20.46 DraftKings points per game in that split, compared to just 16.93 as a favorite (per the Trends tool). As a road dog specifically, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.77. He has the highest median and ceiling projections in our NFL Models, making him an elite choice at just the fourth-highest salary.
Drake London leads the way for the Falcons’ passing attack. He’s been their clear top receiver this season, racking up 28% of the team’s targets and 37% of their air yards. Those are solid numbers, and they might undersell London’s current role: He’s had a target share of at least 33% in back-to-back games.
London has yet to truly go off, but the usage suggests it’s only a matter of time. He had 12 targets last week, but he caught just six of them. With a bit better fortune, he could eclipse 100 yards in this matchup.
London will be catching passes from Kirk Cousins, who has been mediocre in his first year with the Falcons. He was a disaster in Week 1 vs. the Steelers, but he’s looked better since then, averaging 7.3 adjusted yards per attempt over his past three contests.
Still, that hasn’t resulted in much fantasy production. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of four games, and he’s been at 12.1 DraftKings points or fewer in all three contests. His best performance was 17.54 DraftKings points vs. the Eagles, so his ceiling has been capped so far this season.
While Cousins may no longer be an elite fantasy quarterback, he’s still a quarterback. It’s the highest-scoring position in fantasy, and QBs in this price range tend to deliver strong value. He has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate, and he’s fifth in projected Plus/Minus.
Darnell Mooney entered the year with minimal expectations, but he’s blossomed into a legit No. 2 receiver for the Falcons. He has a 21% target share for the year, and his average depth of target (aDOT) is typically well downfield. That gives him plenty of upside, and he’s scored at least 14.6 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the Falcons’ No. 2 option in the passing game, but it’s looking more and more likely that it just won’t happen. His metrics have shown little improvement despite a new quarterback and head coach, and he’s coming off the first zero-catch performance of his career in Week 4. Worse than that, he didn’t even look particularly interested in playing football:
At this point, I’m done chasing the dragon with Pitts. Until he proves to me that he’s worth all the hype he received as a prospect, I’m not willing to invest my hard-earned money on him.
Finally, the Buccaneers have a pair of running backs in this range: Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. White was expected to be the team’s featured runner this season, and he held down that role for the first few weeks. However, White continues to do very little with his opportunities. He’s averaged just 2.8 yards per attempt this season, and he’s at just 3.6 for his career.
That has opened the door for Irving to earn more playing time. Irving has averaged a stellar 5.8 yards per attempt this season, and he earned more carries than White in Week 3. The two players were dead even in Week 4, with both earning 10 carries.
Irving also received the RB opportunities from inside the five-yard line, while White remains the team’s preferred pass-catching back. That gives both players some upside in this matchup. White was added to the injury report as questionable with an illness, so make sure he’s in the lineup before locking him in. If he’s unable to go, Irving would become the slam-dunk top option on the slate.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers are a bit pricier than usual for a single-game slate, but they stand out as stronger values than the defenses.
- Tyler Allgeier ($4,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – With Allgeier’s role growing in Week 4, he’s a strong option at his current price tag. If he gets another 10+ opportunities, he should be able to return value.
- Cade Otton ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Otton is the Buccaneers’ every-down tight end, which is a valuable role at just $4,000. He has an 87% route participation for the year – tied for the second-best mark among all TEs in football – and he has a target share of at least 19% in back-to-back weeks.
- Ray-Ray McCloud ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – McCloud is the Falcons’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s had a much bigger role than anticipated. His route participation has been at 86% or higher in three straight games – including two with a perfect 100% mark – and he has an 18% target share for the year.
- Sterling Shepard ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Shepard saw a big jump in opportunities in his last contest, increasing his route participation from 10% in Week 3 to 65% in Week 4. He finished with five targets, three catches, and 51 yards, which is more than enough to warrant consideration at just $1,600.
