NFL Week 9 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Houston Texans and the New York Jets. The Jets are currently listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.0 points.
It has been a nightmare of a season for New York. They’re sitting at just 2-6, and they’ve had issues on both offense and defense. They’ve tried everything possible to turn things around – firing their head coach, making a big trade, signing a star player – but they still lost last week to the lowly Patriots.
Meanwhile, the Texans are sitting at 6-2 and comfortably in first place in the AFC South. Why is a 6-2 team underdogs against a 2-6 squad? It has to do with all the injuries they’ve accumulated at receiver. They’ll be significantly shorthanded vs. the Jets, so we’ll see if they’ll be able to overcome them.
Let’s dive into the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Joe Mixon is up to $11,000 on DraftKings. That feels like a lot considering where he started the season ($8,600), but it’s hard to say he hasn’t been worth it. Mixon has had three straight games with 100 yards and a touchdown since returning from an injury, and he’s recorded at least 26.4 DraftKings points in all three contests.
From a utilization standpoint, Mixon has one of the most desirable workloads in the league. He’s been the team’s clear top option as a runner, racking up 86% of their carries in back-to-back games. He’s also been involved as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, posting a target share of at least 10% in all five contests. That figure has been slightly higher of late, with Mixon getting to 17% in his last two contests.
The matchup vs. the Jets is also a good one. New York has been repeatedly gashed on the ground this season. They’re 22nd in rush defense EPA, and they’ve surrendered at least 112 yards in six of eight games. If the Texans can get to that threshold, there’s a good chance that Mixon will turn in his fourth-straight 100-yard performance.
Ultimately, he leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median projection. There are a few players with higher ceilings, but Mixon stands out as a pretty safe choice.
Breece Hall is a bit more volatile. He’s had some big games this season, but he’s also had some clunkers. Braelon Allen has also continued to eat into his workload, especially in short-yardage situations. That could be a big deal if it limits Hall’s ability to score touchdowns.
However, Hall remains one of the top pass-catching threats at the position. He has a 17% target share for the year, and he’s been targeted on 22% of his routes run. Only Alvin Kamara has a higher target share among running backs this season.
From a matchup standpoint, the Texans are middle of the pack. They’re 16th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game.
The good news is that Hall will take the field as a favorite, which is a spot where he’s historically crushed. He didn’t provide much value in that role last week vs. the Patriots, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.41 as a favorite for his career (per the Trends tool).
C.J. Stroud rounds out this price range, and he put together one of the best rookie seasons for any quarterback in NFL history. Expectations were high for him entering Year Two, especially after adding Stefon Diggs in the offseason.
Unfortunately, Stroud has lost both Diggs and Nico Collins to injury in recent weeks. That has put a significant damper on his fantasy output. He’s scored just 13.4 and 5.34 DraftKings points in his past two outings.
As bad as the Jets have looked at times, their defense still stands out as one to avoid for quarterbacks. They’ve allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position, and their secondary is one of the best in football. With Hassan Reddick potentially improving the pass rush moving forward, they’re still one of the toughest matchups in the league.
Stroud’s projections in this matchup are very conservative, and he has the worst projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier. Quarterbacks will always have some appeal in the single-game format, but there’s a lot working against Stroud on Thursday night.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The Jets stud receiver duo of Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson headlines this price range. The two players are separated by just $200 on DraftKings, with Adams checking in at $9,800 and Wilson at $9,600. That’s in stark contrast to the pricing on FanDuel, where Wilson is $3,000 more expensive than Adams.
Both players should be pretty busy vs. the Texans. Adams was fully integrated into the lineup in Week 8, posting a perfect 100% route participation. He responded with a 28% target share, though he had just 24% of the team’s air yards.
As good as that number was, it still put him behind Wilson. Wilson had a 32% target share, and his targets came significantly further downfield. He had 63% of the team’s air yards, and his average depth of target (aDOT) checked in at 21.3 yards. That’s obviously an outlier, but it seems reasonable to assume that he will be more of a deep threat than Adams moving forward.
That gives Wilson the slight edge in our projections, making him the clear top option out of the two on DraftKings. However, the gap is close enough that Adams is the far superior option on FanDuel given the massive price discrepancy.
With Collins and Diggs both out of the lineup, Tank Dell appears to be the next man up at receiver. Dell was one of the most explosive players in football as a rookie. He averaged 15.1 yards per reception, and he scored seven touchdowns in just 11 games. He had three games with at least 100 yards and a score, and plenty of people believed he would ascend to the top of the Texans’ depth chart in his second season.
That hasn’t exactly happened. Dell hasn’t looked like the same player, and he’s struggled to earn targets behind Diggs and Collins. He has just a 17% target share for the year, and he’s had a lower target share and air yards share than he did as a rookie. Dell has also been less productive with the ball in his hands, averaging just 9.5 yards per reception and 6.0 yards per target.
Dell could certainly see a boost in opportunities with Collins and Diggs now out of the picture, but there’s no guarantee that leads to success vs. the Jets. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, and their cornerbacks are top-tier. Dell’s salary has increased by $1,000 on DraftKings compared to last week, and that feels like a mistake.
Aaron Rodgers was expected to be the savior for the Jets. He’s the best quarterback to ever don the green and white, but it seems like the Jets got him about five years too late. He hasn’t necessarily been the reason why they’re losing games, but he hasn’t helped much, either. Rodgers is averaging just 6.41 adjusted yards per attempt, which is easily the worst mark he’s ever posted as a starting quarterback. His 2.5% interception rate is also one of the worst marks of his career, while his 4.2% touchdown rate is well below his career average (6.1%).
For fantasy purposes, Rodgers has shown almost no upside. He’s scored 21.04 DraftKings points or fewer in all eight starts, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in five outings. He has provided positive value in two of his past three contests, but he’s been below 20 fantasy points in each.
That said, Rodgers still has the top ceiling projection in our NFL Models, and he has one of the best individual matchups on the slate. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1, and the Texans have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. It’s a spot where we could see the best out of Rodgers, even if that isn’t quite as good as what we’ve seen from him historically.
Dalton Schultz is another pass-catcher who could benefit from the Texans’ injury situation. He hasn’t been as involved this year as he was in 2023, but he still has a very healthy 79% route participation. His target share has increased to 19% since Collins went down with an injury, and he could easily eclipse 20% with Diggs sidelined as well.
Tyler Conklin continues to see a heavy number of snaps for the Jets. He has an 83% route participation, which is one of the best marks in the league at the tight end position. He’s also managed to snag a touchdown in back-to-back games, and he’s cracked double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four.
However, his role in the passing game is clearly shrinking. His target share has dipped to just 10% over the past three games, and with Adams and Wilson hogging targets, that seems unlikely to change. He could still provide value with another score, but that’s his only real path to relevance.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Greg Zuerlein was just placed on IR, so make sure not to include him in any lineups.
- Braelon Allen ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Allen had a season-high 43% of the team’s rushing attempts last week, including 71% of the short-yardage opportunities. He’s a threat to punch in a touchdown on this slate.
- Xavier Hutchinson ($4,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) – Hutchinson is the most likely candidate to take the No. 2 receiver job for the Texans this week. He had a 65% route participation last week, though that resulted in just one target. He’s too expensive on FanDuel, but the price is right on DraftKings.
- Mike Williams ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Williams has been basically a non-factor for the Jets this season, but the injury to Allen Lazard should keep him as the team’s WR3 this week.
- Robert Woods ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Woods should also see a bump in snaps for the Texans this week. He had just a 20% route participation last week, but he was targeted on 25% of his routes run.
- John Metchie ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Metchie is someone who was an intriguing talent entering the league, and he was targeted on 44% of his routes last week. He has the best projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings among the trio of Texans’ receivers in this price range.
- Dare Ogunbowale ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Ogunbowale is the pass-catching specialist in the Texans’ backfield. That role doesn’t provide a ton of value most weeks, but it makes him interesting if you think they’re going to be playing from behind vs. the Jets.
- Cade Stover ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – The Texans could also go with a few more two-TE sets with their current receiver situation.
