NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (October 28) for Giants vs. Steelers Monday Night Football

Two historic NFL franchises will square off on Sunday Night Football, with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting the New York Giants. The Steelers are listed as six-point favorites, while the total sits at 36.5 points.

The Steelers are off to a strong start this season, winning five of their first seven games. They’ve done it by playing typical Steelers’ football, with a strong defense leading the charge.

The Giants have not been nearly as successful. They’ve shown signs of life at times, but they’re coming off a dreadful performance last week vs. the Eagles. Their offensive line is in shambles with Andrew Thomas out for the year, which is going to make life miserable for their offense.

Can the Giants bounce back after last week, or will the Steelers continue to roll? Let’s dive in.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game features a minimal amount of high-end talent, with Malik Nabers the only player priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings. He just barely makes the cut, checking in at exactly $10,000.

Nabers has been one of the league’s premier receivers right out of the gates. He leads the league with a 37% target share, and he’s racked up 53% of the Giants’ air yards. Only A.J. Brown has been better in that department so far this season. Add in 60% of the Giants’ end zone targets, and Nabers has the most desirable workload in all of football.

The only problem is that receivers have to catch the ball. Nabers catches passes from Daniel Jones – one of the worst quarterbacks in football – and Jones is playing behind a disastrous offensive line. If he’s under constant duress like he was against the Eagles, it’s tough to get the ball downfield to Nabers.

Nabers had just eight targets last week, which was his lowest mark since Week 1. He managed just four catches for 41 yards, resulting in a season-low 8.1 DraftKings points.

Things aren’t going to get any easier for the Giants’ passing attack vs. the Steelers. They have a better secondary than Philadelphia, and they’re arguably the best pass-rushing team in football. They’re No. 1 in PFF pass-rush grade, and T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in football.

I’m not sure how the Giants’ offensive line is going to survive in this matchup, which makes Nabers tough to roster. Still, he has the highest ceiling projection of all non-quarterbacks on this slate, so he’s still worth considering.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

George Pickens is the Steelers’ top receiver, and he’s coming off his best game of the season vs. the Jets in Week 7. Pickens has commanded an alpha workload all season, racking up a 30% target share and 51% air yards share through the first seven weeks. That said, that role just wasn’t that valuable with Justin Fields under center. The team threw the ball at one of the lowest rates in football, and Fields isn’t a particularly adept passer.

Pickens’ outlook is a lot rosier with Russell Wilson at QB. Wilson may not be the same passer that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of throwing a good deep ball. Pickens is one of the best in the business at winning jump balls downfield, so it’s a match made in heaven.

The Giants defense hasn’t been terrible this season, but they haven’t been particularly impressive, either. They’re 18th in pass defense EPA, so targeting Pickens in this price range is certainly viable.

The two quarterbacks are next up, and both players have similar marks in NFL Models.

Let’s start with Jones. Jones is someone who is a better fantasy quarterback than he is in real life because of his rushing ability. His best season came in 2022 when he averaged 44 rushing yards per game with seven touchdowns. That gave him a decent ceiling, even if his floor was still pretty low.

Unfortunately, that ceiling hasn’t been quite as high this season. He did have a stretch with at least 18.32 DraftKings points in three of four games, but he’s yet to crack 22.08. Behind a dreadful offensive line against an excellent defense, it’s hard to imagine him improving.

Jones has also been at his worst as an underdog throughout his career. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.86 in that split (per the Trends tool), so he’s tough to make a case for.

Wilson has the highest ceiling projection in our models, so he’s one of the strongest plays on the slate. He had to shake some rust off early vs. the Jets, but he played extremely well overall. He finished with 24.86 DraftKings points despite completing just 16 passes. He averaged a massive 16.5 yards per completion, and he threw two touchdowns and added a third with his legs.

Wilson probably won’t average 16.5 yards per completion all season, but expect him to stay aggressive. He averaged 5.3 air yards per attempt in his first start, and among QBs with more than a handful of throws this season, he trails only Jameis Winston (6.1), Brock Purdy (5.7), and Sam Darnold (5.7). That gives him more upside than you’d expect for a low-volume quarterback.

Najee Harris has played some of the best football of his career this season. He’s been a successful fantasy running back in the past, but that was predicated more on volume than anything else. He’s averaged less than four yards per carry for his career, so his workload has diminished in each successive season.

However, Harris has shown some juice in his past few outings. He’s racked up more than 100 yards in back-to-back games, and he’s added a touchdown in both. He’s averaged at least 4.9 yards per attempt in both outings, and he’s running worth more explosiveness than we’ve ever seen from him.

That’s undoubtedly a good thing for Harris and the Steelers, but he’s still going to have to split work with Jaylen Warren. Warren had a season-high 34% of the rushing attempts last week, and he’s going to be a thorn in Harris’ side for fantasy purposes. There’s a scenario where both players get to eat if this game turns into a blowout, but it does make Harris a bit overpriced for his median outcome.

Devin Singletary is basically unplayable across the industry. That’s especially true on DraftKings, where he’s inexplicably priced at $8,400. He’s lost the starting RB job after going down with an injury, and with the Giants playing for the future, there’s no reason to expect him to win it back.

Wan’Dale Robinson is the Giants’ skill-position player I’m most interested in on Monday. He hasn’t had quite as many targets as Nabers this season, but he’s still posted a healthy 28% target share for the year. The big difference is that his targets tend to come a lot closer to the line of scrimmage.

That caps Robinson’s upside, but it could be a positive in this matchup. Jones figures to be under heavy pressure, which means the ball is going to have to come out of his hands quickly. That benefits Robinson. He had nine targets in a similar situation last week, and he’s available at a significant discount compared to Nabers.

Warren seems fully healthy for the first time all season. He returned to the team’s lineup in Week 6, but he was limited to just 10% of the team’s rushing attempts. They increased his volume last week, and that figures to remain the status quo moving forward. Warren was an explosive playmaker for the Steelers last season, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, so he’s going to be a solid part of this offense.

While the quarterback switch in Pittsburgh clearly had a positive impact on Pickens, it remains to be seen how it will impact Pat Freiermuth. The early results are not promising. He had just an eight percent target share in his first game with Wilson, which was his lowest mark of the season. Freiermuth did manage 51 yards vs. the Jets, but he’s not going to average 17 yards per target most weeks.

Darius Slayton is the Giants’ WR3, and he’s had a respectable role in the offense this season. That includes a perfect 100% route participation last week vs. the Eagles. Unfortunately, he had just three targets in that contest, and he hasn’t been nearly as productive in games with Nabers active.

Both Freiermuth and Slayton stand out as better options on FanDuel. They’re both priced at just $8,000, and they each have a Bargain Rating of at least 80%.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Steelers defense is projected for moderate ownership – which makes sense in this matchup – but the other three should be minimally rostered.
• Tyrone Tracy ($4,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel) – Tracy’s salary is way too cheap on DraftKings. Even with Singletary back in the lineup last week, Tracy still managed 67% of the snaps and 40% of the carries. He’s also the clear pass-catching option out of the team’s backfield.
• Van Jefferson ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Jefferson has been the Steelers’ No. 2 receiver in terms of routes run, but that hasn’t materialized into much actual production. He did manage to catch a touchdown in Wilson’s first start, but he had just three targets.
• Calvin Austin ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Austin has pretty consistently earned more targets than Jefferson this season, so he’s the preferred Steelers’ receiver in this price range.
• Darnell Washington ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Washington caught Wilson’s other touchdown pass last week, and it’s possible that Wilson likes throwing to him more than Fields did. He wasn’t on the field very often last week, but he was targeted on 44% of his routes run.
• Theo Johnson ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Johnson continues to see tons of snaps for the Giants, but he didn’t earn a single target last week vs. the Eagles. Still, he has a 75% route participation for the year, and he’s been at 80% or higher in three straight weeks. Those are elite marks for a player in this price range.