We have another Monday Night Football doubleheader in Week 7, with the second game featuring the Los Angeles Chargers and the Arizona Cardinals. The Chargers are listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 44.0.
Los Angeles has played a pretty easy schedule to start the year, but they’ve jumped out to a 3-2 record. They’re riding the typical Jim Harbaugh formula of playing strong defense and running the rock on offense.
The Cardinals are sitting at just 2-4, but they do at least have a decent offense. They’ve already pulled off a big upset this season against the 49ers, so they can beat you if you’re not ready for them.
Who has the edge in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Of the two Monday Night Football contests, this one is less appealing for fantasy purposes. The 44-point total total isn’t bad, but there isn’t a ton of marquee talent.
Kyler Murray stands out as one of the exceptions. Murray hasn’t had the greatest start to his season, averaging just 17.6 fantasy points per game. That makes him the No. 14 quarterback on a per-game basis.
Still, we know the type of upside he brings to the table. He’s put it on display twice this season, finishing with 25.1 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers and 28.54 DraftKings points vs. the Rams. Unsurprisingly, those are the two games that the Cardinals have managed to win this season.
Murray is a decent passer, but his biggest strength is his legs. He’s one of the best running QBs in football, and he’s averaged 43.5 rushing yards per game this season. He’s not a prolific touchdown scorer – he has just one rushing touchdown in six games – but his yardage output is the second-best mark of his career.
Unfortunately, Murray is going to have to navigate a brutal matchup on Monday night. The Chargers are very good defensively, ranking third in EPA per play, and they play at one of the slowest paces in football. They’re averaging the seventh-fewest plays per game, so opposing quarterbacks haven’t had many opportunities to rack up points. Overall, the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
Still, there simply aren’t a ton of guys in this game that have the potential to score 30+ fantasy points, and Murray is one of them. That alone makes him a strong option on this slate. He leads all players in both median and ceiling projection.
Murray’s top pass-catcher is the other player priced in the five-figure range on DraftKings. Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the year with big expectations after being selected No. 4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. Murray propelled DeAndre Hopkins to some huge fantasy seasons, so there was optimism that he could do the same for Harrison.
That said, Harrison hasn’t had the impact that fantasy players were hoping for. His overall volume isn’t bad. Excluding the Week 6 game he left early, Harrison has a 25% target share, 43% air yards share, and 60% end zone share so far this season. Those are WR1-worthy numbers.
It just hasn’t led to much production. Harrison has caught just 45.9% of his targets, which is well below average. He popped off for 32.0 DraftKings points vs. the Rams in Week 2, but he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in every other contest.
His price has decreased slightly from its peak, but he’s still too expensive across the industry.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
James Conner is one of the more underappreciated backs in fantasy. He has one of the most fantasy-friendly workloads in football, handling the vast majority of the Cardinals’ short-yardage and pass-catching opportunities out of the backfield.
However, Conner is an aging player, and he is someone that the Cardinals could look to trade before the deadline. That means they may not want to expose him to a potential injury.
We saw that play out last week vs. the Packers. The Cardinals fell behind early, so Conner’s numbers took a serious hit. He played on just 29% of the team’s snaps, and he lost all of the pass-catching work to Emari Demercado. That might just be a one-week aberration, or it might be the start of a new trend.
It makes him tough to trust in a really tough matchup. The Chargers have been at their best defensively against the run, ranking first in rush defense EPA, and Conner’s -5.3 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark on the slate. He’s another player that stands out as overpriced.
Trey McBride is cheaper than Harrison on this slate, but he’s actually been the Cardinals’ top pass-catcher from a volume standpoint. He has a 26% target share for the year, and he’s been at 26% or higher in four of his five games. That gives him a pretty steady floor.
He’s one of the best pure values in this matchup on FanDuel, where his $12,000 salary comes with an 89% Bargain Rating.
J.K. Dobbins started the year with two smash performances, racking up a combined 266 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 27 carries. He finished with at least 23.1 DraftKings points in both outings.
Dobbins’ efficiency has come back to reality since then, but he’s made up for it with increased volume. He’s been on the field for at least 72% of the team’s snaps in each of their past two games, and he handled 68% of their rushing attempts last week. That’s not a true bell-cow role, but it’s still a solid figure.
Dobbins doesn’t bring much to the table as a pass-catcher, but he’s a threat for 100+ yards and a score in this matchup. The Cardinals are 23rd in rush defense EPA, and Dobbins has posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three wins this season. If you think the Chargers are going to win this matchup, Dobbins deserves Captain consideration.
It’s pretty wild that we’ve already talked about five players in this matchup and have yet to hit Justin Herbert. Herbert was once considered the “next big thing” at quarterback, and he put together solid fantasy numbers through his first four seasons.
Unfortunately, Jim Harbaugh has absolutely nuked his passing production. He’s down in virtually every category across the board, averaging career-lows in attempts per game (25), yards per game (163), and touchdown passes per game (1.2). Add it all up, and Herbert has yet to score more than 13.86 DraftKings points in any outing this season.
Could he break out vs. the Cardinals? It’s certainly a good enough matchup, and Herbert leads the slate with a +2.4 Opponent Plus/Minus. The bigger question is whether or not he’ll throw enough to take advantage.
Herbert feels like the counter to Dobbins. If you think the Chargers are going to lose this game – or at least play from behind – it’s a great spot to bet on a Herbert bounceback.
With Herbert providing minimal value so far this season, it’s no surprise that his pass-catchers have struggled. However, Ladd McConkey stands out as the exception. McConkey has emerged as the team’s clear top receiver right out of the gates, posting a 26% target share as a rookie. He’s more of a possession receiver than a downfield threat, but that can be a benefit in PPR formats.
Just make sure to confirm that McConkey is active before putting him in your lineups. He’s officially questionable but seems on track to play after being limited at practice all week.
If McConkey is unable to go, Josh Palmer could be looking at a significant role for the Chargers. They’re already expected to be without Quentin Johnston, who is officially doubtful.
Palmer hasn’t had a huge role to start the season, racking up just 12% of the team’s targets and 14% of their air yards. That’s not going to get the job done in a low-volume passing offense. He’s not someone I would consider most weeks, but with Johnson likely out and McConkey banged up, he has some added appeal in this matchup.
Michael Wilson is priced all the way up to $7,600 on DraftKings, which doesn’t make a ton of sense. He has one of the worst projected Plus/Minus marks on the DraftKings slate, so he doesn’t warrant much consideration there. He’s a bit more reasonable at $11,000 on FanDuel, but that still seems like too much compared to guys like Harrison and McBride.Greg Dortch rounds out the Cardinals’ receiving corps, and he’s a low-risk, low-reward type of option. He has a 15% target share this season, but his average depth of target (aDOT) is just 6.4 yards downfield. He needs to do most of his work after the catch, so he probably needs to shake free for a touchdown to hit his ceiling.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Cardinals stand out as the most underappreciated of these options per SimLabs.
- Kimani Vidal ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Vidal got the opportunity to get into the RB rotation following the injury to Gus Edwards. That said, he played on just 24% of the snaps and had 11% of the carries last week.
- Emari Demercado ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Demercado may have taken the pass-catching role from Conner, which would give him some fantasy appeal at his current price tags.
- Trey Benson ($3,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Benson is another potential option in the Cardinals backfield, and he’s someone who could earn a bigger role as the year progresses after being drafted in the third round. That said, he’s the clear No. 3 on the depth chart at the moment.
- D.J. Chark ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Chark is also questionable for the Chargers, but like McConkey, he got in three limited practices this week. He’s yet to suit up this season, so we’re not entirely sure what his role will look like moving forward. However, he seems like a logical choice to fill in for Johnston.
- Will Dissly ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Dissly’s role with the team continues to grow, and he’s had a target share of at least 15% in three of his past four games. He’s a solid value across the industry.
- Simi Fehoko ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Another potential option in the Chargers’ receiving corps and another player who is listed as questionable. He was the biggest beneficiary of Johnson’s injury last week, though the addition of Chark could change things.
- Derius Davis ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – One of the only truly healthy receivers in Los Angeles. He’d be worth considering if some of their questionable players are unable to suit up.
