Another week, another New York Jets primetime game. This time, they’ll travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The Jets are listed as 1.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 38.5.
The Jets have not had the start that they hoped for this season, sitting at just 2-4 through the first six weeks. However, the team acquired some reinforcements this week in the form of Davante Adams, so optimism with this franchise is still high.
On the other side, the Steelers are sitting at 4-2, but that’s not stopping them from making a change at quarterback. Justin Fields is out and Russell Wilson is in, so we’ll see what kind of impact that has on this offense moving forward.
Can the Jets finally get their season back on track, or will the Steelers pick up another big victory? Let’s dive in.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Breece Hall entered this season as one of the top running backs in fantasy, but he’s had an up-and-down year. He had two dreadful games against the Vikings and Broncos, and he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per carry overall. It’s a far cry from the player who averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season and 5.7 as a rookie.
Still, the positives have generally outweighed the negatives. He’s still posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of six games, and his efficiency was much improved last week vs. the Bills. He racked up 113 yards on 18 carries, and he handled 86% of the team’s rushing attempts. That was a very encouraging sign after losing some work to Braelon Allen in previous weeks.
Hall also remains one of the most involved pass catchers in the league out of the backfield. He’s been targeted on 21% of his routes run this season, and he has at least five targets in all but one game this season.
The biggest hindrance to his fantasy value of late has been his lack of touchdowns. He’s failed to score in three straight games after scoring in each of his first three games of the season. Perhaps the acquisition of Adams can help there. It has the potential to make the team’s offense a bit more productive, which should put the Jets in more scoring opportunities.
The Steelers are a tough matchup – they’re No. 2 in rush defense EPA – but Hall still has the top median projection in our NFL Models.
Speaking of Adams, he’s the other player priced in this price range. It will be interesting to see just how involved he is in his first game with the Jets. He’s been with the team for less than a week, so it’s possible that he’s not fully up to speed with their offense.
Of course, Adams is more than familiar with his quarterback. He put together elite numbers while working with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, averaging 10.3 targets, 7.8 receptions, 87.3 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game during their final five seasons together.
Will Adams step right back into his WR1 role next to Rodgers? Garrett Wilson is still around, and he’s arguably the more talented player at this point in their careers.
However, we all know that Rodgers is running the show in New York. Wilson may have been his guy for the past year or so, but Adams is his guy. Odds are, he’s going to be on the field plenty and see all the targets he can handle vs. the Steelers. Both players are priced pretty similarly, but Adams has the superior projections.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
For Wilson, the question is, just how big of a downgrade does he get moving forward? His volume so far this season has been excellent, leading the team with a 31% target share, 35% air-yards share, and 33% of the end-zone targets.
I’d expect most of Adams’ targets to come from guys like Allen Lazard and Mike Williams, but Wilson is going to take a hit as well. I think something like a 25% target share moving forward is pretty fair, with Adams checking it at around 25-28%.
We won’t know the split for sure until these guys actually get on the field together, but Wilson ultimately feels a bit too expensive at $9,200 on DraftKings. He’s not going to disappear completely, but he’s more of a WR2 than a WR1 for fantasy purposes at the moment.
The biggest beneficiary of Adams joining the Jets is probably Rodgers. Rodgers isn’t quite as good as he was in his prime, but it seems like he still has plenty of juice in his arm. If he and Adams can pick up where they left off in Green Bay, he has the chance to put up some bigger numbers moving forward.
Rodgers hasn’t been a great fantasy quarterback so far this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of six games, and he’s cracked 19 DraftKings points merely once. He’s going to have his hands full vs. the Steelers, who boast one of the most ferocious pass rushes in football. Rodgers has taken a bit of a beating recently behind the Jets’ offensive line, getting sacked 3.7 times per game over their past three. That’s tied for the fourth-worst mark in football.
Rodgers still has the highest ceiling projection in our NFL Models, but that’s not particularly surprising for a quarterback. I’d still have my expectations lower than usual.
If Rodgers’ expectations are low, Wilson’s are nonexistent. No one is particularly excited for him to be taking over for the Steelers, especially fantasy players. While Fields had his flaws, he at least offered some rushing upside. Wilson’s days as a runner are well in the past, and his numbers as a passer last year left a lot to be desired. There’s a reason the Broncos paid him $39M to play for someone else this season.
The matchup is also brutal. The Jets are one of the toughest defenses in football against the pass, and Wilson owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.9. That’s the worst mark on the slate.
Najee Harris ran all over the Raiders last week. He racked up 106 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries, good for 23.2 DraftKings points. It was his best game of the year by a wide margin; in fact, it was the first time all season he posted a positive Plus/Minus.
Harris has another solid matchup vs. the Jets, who have been significantly worse against the run. However, Harris seems too expensive at $9,000. Jaylen Warren returned to the lineup last week, and Harris finished with just 48% of the team’s carries. That’s not the type of number you associate with a high-priced running back.
Ultimately, Harris is going to have to survive on efficiency more than pure volume. He did that vs. the Raiders, but he hasn’t been able to do it for most of the year.
George Pickens is one player who might benefit from the QB change in Pittsburgh. He has an alpha workload for the Steelers — 29% target share, 47% air-yards share, 60% end-zone share — but that hasn’t translated into much tangible production. The Steelers were extremely run-heavy with Fields under center, who leaves a lot to be desired as a passer.
Wilson is much more willing to throw the ball downfield, which is where Pickens makes his money. He’s a contested-catch specialist, and while he’ll have to navigate some very talented Jets cornerbacks, he’s capable of winning 1-on-1 jump balls vs. anyone.
Lazard has been a start-worthy fantasy receiver for most of the season, but those days are probably in the past. He’s going to be the clear-cut No. 3 receiver for the Jets, and while that doesn’t make him irrelevant, it does make him too expensive at $7,400 on DraftKings.
He’s much more reasonably priced at $8,500 on FanDuel, where he leads the slate with a 90% Bargain Rating. They were much more aggressive in pricing him down for his new role, which is appreciated.
Pat Freiermuth is another player would could benefit from Wilson taking over. He’s been the Steelers’ No. 2 pass catcher this season, garnering a 17% target share. That’s not a great number, but it’s enough to make him viable at a brutal tight end position.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Jets defense should be pretty popular in Wilson’s first start.
- Tyler Conklin ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Conklin is preferable to Freiermuth given their salaries. He might not be quite as busy with Adams in town, but he’s on the field and in the pattern more than just about any tight end in football.
- Jaylen Warren ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Warren benefits from the same matchup as Harris at a much more affordable price tag. He’s also the better pass catcher, so he’s the back I’d target in Pittsburgh.
- Braelon Allen ($3,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) – Allen’s price tag is comical on FanDuel, but he’s worth some consideration on DraftKings. Even if he doesn’t threaten Hall between the 20s, he could get some work around the goal line.
- Mike Williams ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Williams has struggled to earn Rodgers’ trust, and he’s basically a non-factor at this point.
- Calvin Austin ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Austin is the Steelers’ No. 3 receiver from a route standpoint, but he’s No. 2 at the position in target share.
- Van Jefferson ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Jefferson has a route participation of at least 76% in five of six games, but he’s had minimal impact from a target standpoint.
- Darnell Washington ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Washington is a massive target, which always makes him a threat to catch a ball around the goal line.
