We’ve had some really strong primetime matchups so far this season, but this week’s Thursday Night Football contest doesn’t figure to be one of them. The New Orleans Saints will host the Denver Broncos, with the Broncos listed as 2.5-point favorites. The total is listed at just 37.0.
New Orleans enters this contest in rough shape. Not only have they lost four straight games, but they’re also without starting quarterback Derek Carr. The team’s top two pass-catchers – Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed – are also not going to play on Thursday.
On the other side, the Broncos are sitting at 3-3, which is better than what was expected of them this season. They’re coming off a loss last week vs. the Chargers, but they boast an elite defense that has kept them competitive in every game. Of their three losses, none has come by more than seven points.
Can the Broncos pick up another win on Thursday, or will the Saints bounce back? Let’s dive in.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This slate is largely devoid of stud fantasy options, especially with the Saints’ passing game in shambles. Alvin Kamara stands out as the one clear exception.
Even with the Saints struggling of late, Kamara still checks in as the No. 1 RB in terms of PPR points per game. He has at least 15.7 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, and he has three games of at least 22.0. That includes a massive ceiling performance vs. the Cowboys in Week 3, finishing with four touchdowns and 47.0 DraftKings points.
Kamara’s fantasy stock gets a ding without Carr in the lineup, but he maintained an elite workload in his first game without him. He managed 72% of the team’s rushing attempts, and he continues to be one of the busiest pass-catchers in football at the position. He was targeted on 28% of his routes run in Week 6, which was perfectly in line with his average from his first five games with Carr.
Ultimately, Kamara has more paths to relevance than most running backs in football. He’s capable of having a game with multiple touchdowns, and he’s capable of earning double-digit targets. He hasn’t quite gotten to 10 targets in a game this season, but he’s had at least eight in three straight.
Kamara leads all players in our NFL Models in terms of median projection, and he’s No. 2 from a ceiling perspective. On a slate without many sure things, he’s a solid investment.
Courtland Sutton is the other player priced above $10,000 on DraftKings, but it’s a lot harder to justify his price tag. While Kamara has put up big numbers this season, Sutton is barely a WR4 for fantasy purposes: His average of 10.1 PPR points per game ranks 47th at the position.
Sutton’s underlying metrics aren’t bad – 25% target share, 43% air yards share – and he does have at least 13.8 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. If any receiver on the Broncos is going to have a big day, he’s the most likely candidate.
That said, that doesn’t seem like a very likely scenario. The Broncos have averaged the sixth-fewest passing yards per game this season, so even if Sutton is their top receiver, he’s not worth $10,600.
He’s a much more reasonable option at $11,000 on FanDuel. He’s merely the fifth-most-expensive option instead of the second, and he leads all players with a 98% Bargain Rating. Sutton is still far from a must-play, but he’s a lot easier to get behind at those numbers.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
This game will feature a battle of rookie quarterbacks: Bo Nix for the Broncos and Spencer Rattler for the Saints.
Let’s start with Nix. He got off to a rough start, which is to be expected for a rookie. However, he’s shown some significant improvement in recent weeks. That’s been especially true for fantasy purposes. Nix brings some athleticism to the table, and he’s already rushed for three scores so far this season. Add in an average of 6.2 carries and 30 yards per game, and he’s capable of doing some damage with his legs.
Ultimately, Nix has gone for at least 19.34 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. The lone exception was the Jets, who boast one of the best pass defenses in football.
Nix’s matchup vs. the Saints looks a lot better than it did at the start of the year. They were just absolutely torn to shreds by Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Tampa Bay racked up just shy of 600 total yards offensively, and they scored more than 50 points. They did that despite turning the ball over three times, which seems almost impossible.
Given the matchup and Nix’s recent production, it’s no surprise that he stands out as one of the strongest plays on the slate. He leads all players in terms of ceiling projection, and he’s first in this tier in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Rattler made the first start of his career last week, and things went pretty well for him, all things considered. He did look overmatched at times, but he put up respectable numbers: 243 yards, one touchdown, and 27 rushing yards. He finished with 14.42 DraftKings points, which was just enough to pay off his modest salary.
Unfortunately, his price has jumped up to $9,200 this week, so he’s going to need to do a bit more to return value. He’ll also have to do it against a really tough defense. The Broncos are fourth in EPA per play defensively, and they’re No. 3 against the pass. Overall, Rattler’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -4.8 on DraftKings is better than only the Saints’ receiving corps (-6.7).
Quarterbacks are always going to have appeal in the single-game format, but as far as quarterbacks go, Rattler is pretty uninspiring.
Javonte Williams is coming off a dreadful performance last week, finishing with just 5.6 DraftKings points. However, it’s important to remember the context. The Broncos trailed throughout vs. the Chargers, so the team simply didn’t have many opportunities to run the ball. Even though Williams only had six carries, that still represented 50% of the team’s total attempts.
Williams also continues to be involved as a pass catcher. He had six targets last week, and he’s been targeted on at least 21% of his routes run in five straight games. Williams is seeing the majority of the short yardage and passing-down work, which is a nice combination.
The Buccaneers ran all over the Saints last week, so it’s a good bounce-back spot for Williams.
Taysom Hill is questionable after missing the past two weeks with an injury, but he’s tough to roster at his current price tag across the industry. At $7,000 on DraftKings, he’s going to need to be way more involved than usual to potentially return value.
Is that possible? Absolutely. Hill could play a bunch at quarterback, especially with the team’s passing game really banged up. That at least gives Hill a puncher’s chance. He doesn’t grade out well in our NFL Models, but he’s still someone I’m not ignoring completely.
Juwan Johnson has also been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, and he could take on a more prominent role with Olave and Shaheed out. He did have a season-high 75% route participation last week, but he managed just a 9% target share. He’s too expensive for me personally on DraftKings, but he’s certainly viable on FanDuel.
The same goes for Jaleel McLaughlin. He’s served as the clear No. 2 back behind Williams, and outside of a touchdown catch in Week 5, he’s brought very little to the table for fantasy purposes.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Broncos should be popular against the Saints’ decimated offense.
- Devaughn Vele ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Vele has appeared in just two games for the Broncos, but he’s been a solid part of the passing attack in both. He’s expected to be one of their three main receivers moving forward, so he’s a clear “stock up” guy at the moment.
- Bub Means ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Means is way too cheap on DraftKings. He’s projected for more fantasy points than every player priced below $8,800. He had a 23% target share last week, so he could very well be the Saints’ No. 1 receiver in this matchup.
- Jamaal Williams ($3,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Williams has seen very little work for the Saints this season as Kamara’s backup. He would likely need an injury to be relevant.
- Cedrick Wilson ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Wilson had a 56% route participation last week, and he has a track record of some useful fantasy performances. He could be asked to step up given the state of the team’s receiving corps.
- Troy Franklin ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Franklin is the other Broncos’ rookie receiver to target. He had just three targets last week, but he did manage to score the first touchdown of his career.
- Foster Moreau ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Moreau is the No. 2 TE for the Saints, and his role has dwindled since the start of the season.
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey ($2,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Humphrey had a sizable role in Weeks 2 through 5, but he took a backseat to Vele and Franklin last week. That seems likely to continue.
- Mason Tipton ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Tipton somehow saw fewer opportunities last week than he did in the weeks prior. He should serve as the team’s WR3 vs. the Broncos, but there’s no guarantee that leads to production.
- Marvin Mims ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Mims was targeted on 21% of his routes run last week, but he’s starting to look like a bust.
- Lucas Krull ($1,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Krull was the Broncos’ starting TE last week, and he had a respectable 73% route participation. He also saw 10% of the team’s targets.
- Equanimeous St. Brown ($200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – He could also get in the mix at receiver for the Saints, but I doubt it.
