NFL Week 6 wraps up with an early battle for AFC East supremacy. The Buffalo Bills will travel to New York to take on the Jets with first place in the division up for grabs. The Bills are listed as 2.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41.0.
The Bills looked like one of the best teams in football to start the year, rattling of three straight victories. However, they’ve come crashing back to reality since then. They were humbled by the Ravens in Baltimore in Week 4, and they suffered their second straight defeat last week vs. the Texans. They’re also really banged up at the moment, with multiple players listed as questionable.
On the other side, this will be the Jets’ first game since firing Robert Saleh. They’ve underperformed this season, going just 2-3 despite having as much talent as anyone in the NFL.
Will the coaching change spark the Jets to victory, or will the Bills snap their losing skid? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
When it comes to fantasy studs, it’s hard to find a better one than Josh Allen. He led the league in fantasy scoring last season, averaging more than 24 points per game. That was roughly 2.5 more points per game than Jalen Hurts, who was the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy.
With that in mind, Allen’s production so far this season is a bit disappointing. He has erupted for two huge performances – 30.92 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars, 32.18 vs. the Cardinals – but he has 14.64 DraftKings points or fewer in his other three outings. That includes two games with single-digit fantasy points. Overall, he’s down to No. 8 in fantasy points per game at the position through the first five weeks.
Is that cause for concern? It’s possible. The Bills underwent a schematic shift last season when switching from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady at offensive coordinator. They became a much more run-heavy offense, and that has carried over into this season: they’ve had a negative dropback over expected (DBOE) in four of five games. That has drastically impacted his passing production: his average of 189.0 yards per game is the lowest mark since his rookie season.
Allen is still racking up fantasy points with his legs, but he’s been less proficient in that department as well. Specifically, he’s been unable to find the end zone at the same rate as in years past. He had two rushing touchdowns in Week 1, but he’s yet to find the paint since then. That puts him on pace to finish well below last year’s tally of 15 scores.
Add it all up, and Allen is no longer the clear-cut top QB in fantasy. Still, that matters far more on multi-game slates than in the single-game format. Allen still has the top median and ceiling projections in this matchup, so he’s undoubtedly worth considering. However, expectations should probably be tempered, especially against a Jets’ defense that has given him trouble in the past.
Allen’s loss has been James Cook’s gain. Cook is pacing for the best season of his young career, checking in as the No. 5 RB in PPR points per game through the first five weeks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, scoring at least 17.9 DraftKings points in each.
The matchup vs. the Jets also suits Cook more than Allen. They remain one of the best pass defenses in football – they’re fifth in dropback EPA – but they’ve been vulnerable at times on the ground. The 49ers absolutely manhandled them in the trenches in Week 1, and they also allowed at least 126 yards to the Titans and Broncos. While Allen has a horrid -8.1 Opponent Plus/Minus in this matchup, Cook is at a much more reasonable -2.3.
Cook is officially questionable, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that he is expected to play. As long as he’s in the lineup, he’s an interesting option.
Garrett Wilson is the Jets’ lone fantasy stud, though his standing in that tier is precarious. He didn’t exactly look the part in his first four games, averaging just five catches and 47.8 receiving yards with one total touchdown.
Wilson provided his best fantasy game of the year in Week 5, finishing with 32.1 DraftKings points on 13 catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown. However, he needed a ridiculous 23 targets to get there. He had a massive 44% target share in that outing, and Aaron Rodgers threw the ball 54 times. Those seem like outlier numbers.
Like the Jets, the Bills also have a pretty strong pass defense. They’re seventh in dropback EPA against this season, and they could get cornerback Taron Johnson back after suffering an injury in Week 1.
Ultimately, this feels like a decent spot to sell high on Wilson.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
What has happened to Breece Hall? He was drafted as one of the first running backs off the board this season, and he’s always been an elite talent. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rookie and 4.5 last season, and he’s a major plus in the pass game.
His efficiency has fallen off a cliff so far this season. He’s averaging just three yards per carry, and he’s had 19 carries for 27 yards in his past two games combined. He’s finished with below seven DraftKings points in each outing.
The good news is that there’s nothing overly concerning underneath the hood. He’s still getting the vast majority of the snaps at the position, and he remains the team’s clear top option in pass-catching and short-yardage situations.
This seems like an excellent buy-low opportunity. He had at least 18.3 DraftKings points in each of his first three outings this season, and his salary was as high as $11,800. Getting him below $10,000 is extremely appealing.
Part of the reason for the Jets’ dismal offensive numbers of late is at quarterback. Rodgers has not been his usual efficient self over the past two weeks, completing just 55.21% of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Overall, he’s averaged just 3.90 adjusted yards per attempt, which is far from what you’d expect from a future first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Rodgers’ best days are definitely in the rear-view mirror, but he should still be a bit better moving forward. That said, that doesn’t necessarily guarantee fantasy success. He’s more of a game-manager at this point, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of five games this season. Quarterbacks always have appeal in the single-game format, but Rodgers’ stands out as a middling option for his price tag.
Khalil Shakir missed last week’s game for the Bills, and he’s questionable once again in Week 5. There have been no real updates on his status, but he was at least able to get in a limited practice on Saturday. If he’s able to go, he will likely be limited in some capacity.
That makes him pretty unappealing for fantasy purposes, especially at an elevated $8,600 salary against a good Jets’ secondary. While he’s been the Bills’ best receiver for fantasy purposes, his underlying metrics don’t support this kind of price tag (20% target share, 13% air yards).
I’m more willing to invest in Dalton Kincaid. His fantasy production has been underwhelming this season, but he’s been the Bills’ most consistent pass-catcher. He’s had a target share of at least 23% in three of the past four games, and he has one touchdown over that time frame. He’s been a victim of the team’s minimal pass frequency, with the Bills average of 26.8 pass attempts per game ranking tied for 30th in the league.
Still, if anyone in this passing attack is going to have a big outing, Kincaid remains the most logical candidate.
Keon Coleman rounds out the Bills’ top pass-catchers, and he would see a slight bump if Shakir is unable to go. He’s been right around a 70% route participation in the past two games, and he’s handled about a 15% target share.
Allen Lazard and Mike Williams are competing for the No. 2 receiver job in New York. It was recently reported that the team wanted to get more touches for Williams, but it was more of the same in Week 5: Lazard had a 100% route participation and 19% target share, while Williams was at 81% and 8%.
It’s a frustrating situation for fantasy players. Williams is the better player, but Rodgers’ chemistry with Lazard is apparently too much to overcome. Maybe this is the week when things finally flip in Williams’ favor, but it’s becoming more unlikely by the week.
Braelon Allen is gaining some steam in the Jets’ backfield, and he looks to be a steal as a fourth-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s had at least 30% of the team’s rushing attempts in four straight weeks, and it’s possible he could start to steal some of the goal-line touches from Hall. That hasn’t happened yet, but he’s a big, powerful runner that seems ideal for that situation. $5,400 is ultimately a reasonable price tag for him.
Finally, Tyler Johnson has been priced all the way up to $5,200 on DraftKings, likely due to Cook being questionable. As long as Cook is active, there’s no reason to consider him at this price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Jets defense is expected to be pretty popular (24.7% projected ownership), but the other options are all below 19%.
- Tyler Conklin ($4,000 DraftKings) – Conklin has quietly been one of the most involved tight ends in football. His 87% route participation is tied with Travis Kelce for the top mark in the league at TE. He’s had a target share of at least 17% in three straight weeks, so he seems undervalued at the moment.
- Ray Davis ($3,000 DraftKings) – Davis has been the Bills’ clear No. 3 RB this season, playing only in blowout situations. He’s not viable if Cook is active.
- Curtis Samuel ($2,800 DraftKings) – Samuel is officially questionable, but he’s had three limited practice sessions this week. That puts him on track to suit up. He saw a big spike in routes last week sans Shakir, so he would see a boost in value if he’s inactive.
- Mack Hollins ($2,400 DraftKings) – Hollins has been one of the Bills’ most consistent receivers from a route standpoint, and it’s started to pay off with more opportunities. He has a target share of at least 22% in back-to-back weeks.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($2,000 DraftKings) – MVS is seeing just enough snaps each week to stay relevant. He still possesses excellent speed, so he doesn’t need a ton of reps to potentially make a big play.
