Sunday Night Football for NFL Week 6 features a matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants. The Bengals are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 47.
The Bengals entered the year with big expectations, but they’re currently sitting at just 1-4. Their offense has been outstanding over their past three games, but their defense has been an unmitigated disaster. They still have time to right the ship, but they need to start putting some wins on the board ASAP.
The Giants were not expected to contend for the playoffs this season, but they’ve been respectable through the first five weeks. They’ve won two contests, beating the Browns in Week 3 and the Seahawks in Week 5, and they’ve suffered two close losses to the Commanders and Cowboys. The only time this season they’ve looked truly outclassed was against the Vikings all the way back in Week 1.
Will the Bengals pick up a much-needed win, or will the Giants pull off the upset? Let’s dive in.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Ja’Marr Chase had a slow start to his season. He had just 11 targets through the first two weeks, and he finished with just 10 catches for 97 yards. He also failed to find the end zone in those outings despite playing without Tee Higgins.
While the lack of volume was concerning, you can’t keep a player like Chase down for long. He erupted for six catches, 118 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 3, resulting in 32.8 DraftKings points. He still hadn’t seen a huge spike in volume with just seven target, but he made the most of them.
Week 4 was a similar story. Chase had just six targets, but he salvaged things by finding the end zone. It wasn’t until Week 5 that he truly broke out. His 12 targets were easily a new season-high, and Chase went absolutely nuclear. He had 10 catches, 193 yards, and two touchdowns, resulting in 44.3 DraftKings points.
Chase remains one of the best big-play threats in football, capable of turning any catch into a long touchdown, but the Bengals need to make getting him the ball a bigger emphasis. His 21% target share for the year is simply inexcusable. Hopefully last week’s performance serves as a reminder.
Ultimately, Chase has one of the highest ceilings in football, but his floor isn’t as high as you’d expect for an elite receiver. If he returns to the six or seven targets per game he saw in the first four weeks and doesn’t find the paint, he could end up being a disappointment.
Chase will be catching passes from Joe Burrow, who is undoubtedly one of the top quarterbacks in football. He led the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship games in 2021 and 2022, including one trip to the Super Bowl.
He dealt with injuries for most of last season, and he apparently had to shake some rust off in his first game of the year. However, his production since then has been excellent. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he’s scored at least 17.28 DraftKings points in all four outings. He’s displayed a ceiling of close to 40 DraftKings points, and he’s eclipsed 28 DraftKings points in two of his past three games.
It’s no coincidence that Burrow’s two best performances came in Chase’s biggest outings. The two players are highly correlated, checking in at +0.81 on DraftKings. Most QBs and receivers have a positive correlation, but that is way more than most.
From a matchup perspective, the Giants are right in the middle of the pack. They’re 16th in EPA per play defensively, checking in as roughly league average against the run and the pass. However, the team did just have to place one of its top pass rushers, Kayvon Thibodeaux, on IR. The defensive line is the defense’s biggest strength, and without Thibodeaux, it’s possible they regress a bit moving forward.
One final thing to note is that Burrow has not historically been at his best as a road favorite. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.59 in that split (per the Trends tool). However, he’s still averaged 19.92 DraftKings points. That might not be enough to provide “value,” but it’s a solid mark. Burrow leads all players in median and ceiling projection in our NFL Models, so he’s one of the strongest plays on the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Tee Higgins is the Bengals’ other marquee pass-catcher. In the past, Higgins has served as the Robin to Chase’s Batman. His target share was 8% lower than Chase’s in 2023, though they had the same percentage of air yards. It made Higgins more of a WR2 for fantasy purposes than a WR1.
However, things look a bit different in 2024. Chase’s targets are down, and Higgins has been one of the primary beneficiaries. He owns a 27% target share for the year, and he’s had at least 32% of the targets in back-to-back weeks. He’s also crushing Chase in terms of air yards share (41% vs. 26%).
Higgins has had double-digit targets in each of his past two games, and like Chase, he scored two touchdowns last week. He’s yet to crack the 100-yard threshold, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much separating these players at the moment. With that in mind, getting Higgins at $2,000 less might be the better option.
Daniel Jones was basically left for dead entering this season. He was the definition of a “lame-duck quarterback;” he was simply playing out the string until the team found a new option for next year.
That said, Jones is making the most of his opportunity. Even if he’s not with the Giants next year, he’s trying to earn himself a job somewhere.
For fantasy purposes, he’s been a borderline QB1 this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, topping out with 22.08 DraftKings points last week vs. the Seahawks.
Most encouragingly, Jones had a season-high 11 carries in that outing. He only finished with 38 rushing yards, but Jones using his legs more would be great for his fantasy value. He’s always been an underrated runner, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his career.
Jones has the potential for a big performance this week. The Bengals’ defense has been obliterated this season, ranking 29th in pass defense EPA. They’ve also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Jones’ +3.6 Opponent Plus/Minus is the top mark on DraftKings, so he’s an excellent target at just $9,000.
Wan’Dale Robinson will serve as Jones’ top target for the second consecutive week. Malik Nabers remains in the concussion protocol, and he’s posted a target share of just under 40% for the year. With him sidelined, the rest of the Giants’ pass catchers all see a bump in value.
Robinson was already a huge part of the Giants passing attack. He has a 28% target share, and he’s seen at least eight targets in all but one game. Robinson only managed six catches and 36 yards on his nine targets last week, but he made up for it by scoring his second touchdown of the season.
Chase Brown and Zack Moss will handle the RB responsibilities for the Bengals. However, both players are priced above $8,000 on DraftKings. That’s not something you see very often, and it makes both pieces of this committee tough to roster. They’re much easier to roster on FanDuel, where they each own a slate-high 89% Bargain Rating.
Moss remains the team’s starter, leading the duo in snaps in each of the first five weeks. However, Brown has earned more carries in each of the past two games, and he’s been the far superior player. He’s averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, while Moss has lagged behind at 3.7. If that continues, Brown could eventually usurp the starting job.
I’m a believer that Brown is the better player, but Moss is still the superior fantasy asset for the time being. He continues to dominate the opportunities in two key areas: short-yardage and passing downs. He’s received 82% of the short-yardage opportunities, and he’s played on 81% of the long-down-and-distance snaps. That gives him a better chance to score touchdowns and catch passes. Moss is also cheaper than Brown, giving him a clear edge on this slate.
On the other side, Devin Singletary will miss his second straight game for the Giants. That gives Tyrone Tracy Jr. another shot to start. He took full advantage of his opportunity in Week 5, racking up 129 yards on 18 carries vs. the Seahawks.
As bad as the Bengals’ passing defense has been, they’ve somehow been even worse on the ground. They’re 31st in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed at least 149 rushing yards in all but one game. It’s a great spot for Tracy, who is underpriced across the industry.
The same can be said for Darius Slayton. He saw a massive spike in volume last week sans Nabers, posting a 98% route participation, 35% target share, and 73% air yards share. He ultimately racked up eight catches, 122 yards, and a touchdown, good for 29.2 DraftKings points.
Slayton has always been a solid producer when given opportunities, so he’s in line for another strong showing vs. the Bengals.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Both kickers and the Giants defense are showing up as undervalued in Sim Labs.
- Andre Iosivas ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Iosivas has maintained a solid route participation with Higgins back in the lineup, checking in right around 80% in each of the past three weeks. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had many targets over that time frame, but perhaps that changes vs. the Giants.
- Mike Gesicki ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Gesicki was a solid part of the Bengals passing attack in the first two weeks, but his role is steadily dwindling. He’s tough to target at his current price tags.
- Erick All ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – I’d rather target All if I’m going with a Bengals TE. His role has grown each week, and he’s had a target share of at least 11% in three of the past four games.
- Eric Gray ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Gray served as Tracy’s backup last week, but his role still has some value. Specifically, he played on the majority of short-yardage and pass-catching situations.
- Theo Johnson ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Johnson is coming off his best game of the season last week, posting an 80% route participation and 16% target share. He’s underpriced across the industry.
- Jalin Hyatt ($2,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Hyatt had a 73% route participation last week, but he failed to earn a single target. Still, he should be on the field a bunch with Nabers still sidelined, and he has the deep speed to turn in a long touchdown.
- Isaiah Hodgins ($600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Hodgins was elevated from the practice squad before last week’s game and had a 28% route participation.
