NFL Week 6 gets underway with a NFC West rivalry. The Seattle Seahawks will host the San Francisco 49ers, with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point road favorites. The total sits at 49.5 points.
The 49ers were the top dogs in the NFC last year, but they’ve stumbled out of the gates this season. They’ve won just two of their first five games, and star running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to suit up. However, the offense still seems pretty potent: they’re second in yardage and eighth in EPA per play so far this season.
On the other side, the Seahawks started the year 3-0 but are coming off back-to-back losses to the Lions and Giants. The schedule-makers did them no favors with this matchup, which will be their third game in the past 11 days. Beating the 49ers is tough enough, but doing it on short rest might be too much to ask.
Can the Seahawks overcome the brutal scheduling, or will the 49ers figure things out? Let’s dive in.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
There’s only one player priced above $10,000 on DraftKings, and it’s a pretty unlikely player. Jordan Mason was not expected to be a fantasy superstar this season. The 2022 UDFA was expected to serve as the backup to McCaffrey, but the star running back’s injuries turned out to be worse than expected. He’s yet to play this season, and it doesn’t seem like a return is imminent.
Mason has taken the job and run with it. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer this season, with his average of 16.6 PPR points per game ranking 11th at the position. He’s not a huge threat in the passing game – he has just eight targets and seven catches in five games – but he makes up for it with his volume on the ground. Mason has averaged more than 20 carries per game, and he’s hit the 100-yard plateau three separate times. He’s added a rushing touchdown in each of his 100-yard games, resulting in 20+ DraftKings points on all three occasions.
His matchup vs. the Seahawks is a bit of a mixed bag. Seattle has been pretty good on the ground so far this season, ranking 10th in rush defense EPA. However, they gave up 175 rushing yards to the Giants last week and 185 to the Patriots in Week 2. They’re certainly a unit that can be had.
The Seahawks are also dealing with some injuries at the moment that could impact their run D. Defensive tackle Byron Murphy II remains out with a hamstring injury, while linebacker Uchenna Nwosu is out with a thigh injury. Two other linebackers and a safety are currently listed as questionable.
Add in the poor schedule spot for the Seahawks, and it’s easy to see a situation where this game isn’t as close as the spread suggests. In that scenario, Mason has the potential for another big game.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Kenneth Walker will serve as the Seahawks’ top runner, and he’s the second-most-expensive player on DraftKings. Walker isn’t a true bell-cow but Zach Charbonnet hasn’t siphoned off enough work to hurt his value too much. In Walker’s three games, he’s posted a 70% snap share and received 70% of the rushing attempts. That includes 82% of the short-yardage opportunities, which he’s converted into four touchdowns.
Walker has also been a solid factor in the passing game. He’s been targetted on 21% of his routes run this season, including 27% in his last outing. He ultimately caught seven passes for 57 yards vs. the Giants, which helped offset a dreadful five carries for 19 yards on the ground.
Walker’s work in the passing game should keep him relevant in all scenarios vs. the 49ers. He doesn’t stand out as an elite value – he has just the seventh-highest ceiling projection at the second-highest price tag – but he has some merit.
We’re nearing Halloween, which means it’s officially Brocktober. Brock Purdy still has plenty of doubters, and it’s no secret that he has one of the easiest quarterback jobs in the NFL. But that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been very good at his job since taking over.
Purdy is currently fifth in the league in EPA + CPOE after leading the league in that department last year. From a fantasy perspective, he’s scored at least 15.06 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s averaged the 12th-most fantasy points per game at the position.
While most of Seattle’s injuries are in their front seven, they also have a big absence in the secondary this week. Riq Woolen has been ruled out with an ankle injury, and he’s been the ninth-best corner in football per PFF. The 49ers have an elite passing attack, so being without one of your best cover corners could spell disaster.
Purdy has also historically done some of his best work vs. Seattle. He’s had four career matchups vs. the Seahawks, and he’s scored at least 25.42 DraftKings points in two of them (per the Trends tool).
Overall, Purdy stands out as the strongest option on the slate in our NFL Models. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Geno Smith will be taking the snaps for Seattle, and he’s been even better than Purdy through the first five weeks. He’s the No. 5 QB in fantasy, and he’s racked up at least 18.84 DraftKings points in four of five games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four outings, and he’s had at least 22.56 DraftKings points in his past two games.
The fact that Smith can still put up fantasy points in a loss is encouraging for his prospects vs. the 49ers. His projections lag behind Purdy’s in our Models, but his DraftKings salary comes with a 98% Bargain Rating.
DK Metcalf appeared to be rolling heading into last week’s game vs. the Giants. He had eclipsed 100 receiving yards in three straight games, and he’d scored a touchdown in two of them. He also had two games with at least 12 targets, so things were trending up.
Unfortunately, Metcalf was unable to sustain his production vs. New York. His target share dipped to just 19% vs. the Giants, putting him at just 22% for the year. That’s still the best mark on the team, but it’s not good enough to put him with the top receivers in football. He ranks 32nd in target share at receiver for the season, so he’s not getting fed as much as fantasy players would like.
Still, Metcalf is a massive big play threat, and he makes up for it slightly in terms of air yards. He has 39% of the team’s air yards this season, and with his combination of size and speed, he’s capable of doing more than most without an elite target share.
The 49ers have a pair of stud receivers that are tough to separate for fantasy purposes: Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk was slightly more targeted than Samuel last season, but Deebo made up for it with his work in the run game. He was also the more likely of the two to find the end zone, which made him the superior fantasy player on a per-game basis.
Through the first five weeks, things look pretty similar in 2024. Aiyuk has a 23% target share for the year, while Samuel is at 22% in his four outings. Deebo started the year strong, scoring at least 18.7 DraftKings points in his first two contests, but Aiyuk has come on of late. He had a 35% target share last week vs. the Cardinals, and he racked up 48% of the team’s air yards.
That momentum makes Aiyuk the stronger option for this week’s matchup vs. the Seahawks. He had his first 100-yard game of the season last week; if he can find the endzone vs. the Seahawks, he could be poised for his best game of the year.
George Kittle is also a big threat in the 49ers’ passing attack. He actually has the top target share of the trio so far this season, checking in at 24%. Like Aiyuk, he also had a 35% target share in Week 5, and he’s had at least one endzone target in back-to-back games. That sounds encouraging for Kittle, who is priced in a tier below his two wide receiver teammates.
However, we have a solid sample size of results from the 49ers that suggest he’s the clear No. 3 option in this trio. He might be a bit overpriced compared to his teammates.
Part of the reason why Metcalf isn’t seeing a huge target share this season is because of the emergence of Jaxson Smith-Njigba. He’s had a very strong start to his sophomore season, racking up a 21% target share through the first five weeks.
Most of JSN’s work comes near the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) is just 7.7 yards, which puts him well behind Metcalf (11.6) and Tyler Lockett (10.2). While that caps his upside a bit, it does give him more stability in PPR formats: he leads the team with 29 receptions.
That makes him a bit more valuable on DraftKings, though his salary is slightly more appealing on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $10,000, which is simply too cheap.
Finally, Lockett rounds out the Seahawks’ top pass-catchers. He’s been a clear No. 3 option behind Metcalf and Smith-Njigba, but he’s still carving out a healthy number of targets each week. He has at least six targets in all but one game, which is certainly enough at his current price tag.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Kicker Jake Moody is out for the 49ers, so they’ll be going with Matthew Wright instead.
- Jauan Jennings ($4,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) – Jennings’ salary has come back to reality after dominating with Samuel and Kittle out of the lineup. However, it may have come down too much. Jennings still had a 23% target share in Week 4 and a 13% mark in Week 5, so he’s still a solid part of this offense.
- Zach Charbonnet ($3,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Charbonnet is more of an annoyance to Walker than a legit fantasy asset at this point. However, he does provide a bit of value in the passing game: he has at least four targets in four straight contests. He could see a bit more run if the Seahawks are playing from behind.
- Noah Fant ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Fant is the Seahawks top tight end, and he had a season-high 72% route participation last week. Unfortunately, it didn’t help him much from a target perspective: he had a target share of 8% or lower for the third time in four games.
- Isaac Guerendo ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Guerendo is the backup to Mason, but he has done very little through the first five weeks. He did see 23% of the team’s carries last week, but that was more about the 49ers running less overall than anything else.
- Kyle Juszczyk ($1,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – I’d rather play Juszczyk if playing someone in the 49ers’ backfield other than Mason. He at least has a role as a pass-catcher, logging at least one target in four of five games. That includes a five-target outing vs. the Vikings in Week 2.
