We’ve got a banger of a Thursday Night Football contest to start off NFL Week 10. The Cincinnati Bengals will take on the Baltimore Ravens in a battle between AFC North powerhouses. The Ravens are listed as six-point home favorites, while the total sits at 52.5.
The Bengals have not had a good season, but it hasn’t been due to their offense. They’re seventh in EPA per play and points per game, while Joe Burrow is performing at an MVP level. Their defense is also coming off their best showing of the season last week, so they’re still a very real threat to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have been one of the most impressive teams in the league. Their offense is an absolute wagon, ranking first in yards per game, second in points, and second in EPA per play.
Let’s dive into all the fantasy options for Thursday Night Football.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game is absolutely loaded with stud DFS options. That starts with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.
Jackson is the most expensive player on basically every slate that he’s available, and that makes sense. He’s leading all players with an average of 25.3 fantasy points per game this season.
Jackson has also been an extremely consistent producer. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game this season, and he still had 17.38 DraftKings points in that contest. That game was all the way back in Week 2, and he’s rattled off at least 22.92 DraftKings points in seven straight outings.
His best game of the season came in his first matchup vs. the Bengals. He finished with 37.42 DraftKings points thanks to 348 passing yards, four touchdowns, and 55 yards on the ground. Lamar has historically done some of his best work vs. Cincinnati, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.18 (per the Trends tool).
There’s no reason to overthink this one. Jackson leads all players in ceiling and median projections, and he also tops the slate in projected Plus/Minus. He’s the unquestioned top option.
While Derrick Henry hasn’t been quite as good as Jackson, he’s still been extremely impressive. He’s averaged an absurd 6.3 yards per attempt, and he’s added 13 touchdowns. He’s on pace to lead the league in virtually every notable category, and he’s the No. 1 RB in fantasy regardless of format. Overall, Henry has posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.04 in his first year with the Ravens.
Henry is also a pretty sizable favorite, which is something that’s worth noting. For his career, Henry has absolutely smashed in these spots. He’s averaged 20.96 DraftKings points per game when favored by more than four points, good for an average Plus/Minus of +5.48.
The one caveat is that the Bengals are one of the few teams that have kept Henry in check this season. He still had 16.6 DraftKings points against them, but 62 of his 92 yards came in overtime. Tackling Henry is borderline unfair to begin with, but it’s particularly tough after playing 60 minutes.
Henry’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.8 is the worst mark in the stud tier, and he has the worst projected Plus/Minus. He’s best used in lineups where you’re fading Jackson, with the two players having a -0.11 correlation on DraftKings.
Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase headline the Bengals offense. However, the two players haven’t been quite as in sync as we’ve seen in years past. Chase has just a 24% target share and 26% air yards share, both of which are down from last year. That’s despite Tee Higgins missing four of the team’s eight games.
However, Chase’s numbers are trending in the right direction. His target share sits at 29% over the past five games, and he’s been at or above that mark in back-to-back games without Higgins.
Chase also posted a season-high 32% target share in his first matchup vs. the Ravens, and he absolutely erupted in that contest. He racked up 10 catches, 193 yards, and two touchdowns, resulting in 44.3 DraftKings points.
The Ravens have been vulnerable defensively all season, and no team is allowing more passing yards per game. With Higgins unlikely to suit up once again, it could be another big showing for the superstar receiver.
Like Chase, Burrow absolutely feasted on the Ravens’ subpar secondary in Week 5. He had 392 passing yards and five touchdowns, and he finished with 37.78 DraftKings points.
Burrow tends to save his best performances for the biggest matchups. He has an elite track record against the spread as an underdog, and he’s unsurprisingly performed well in that split from a fantasy perspective, too. When getting more than a field goal, Burrow has averaged 21.22 DraftKings points.
Burrow has been a boom-or-bust quarterback all season, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in a “boom” in Week 10. He leads the slate with a +6.9 Opponent Plus/Minus, and only Jackson has better projections in our NFL Models.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
On a slate with so much offensive firepower, a “stars-and-scrubs” lineup construction will likely be the default for most players. Getting to guys like Jackson, Burrow, Henry, and Chase is extremely desirable, which often makes the midrange a bit overlooked.
That said, there are still some really strong targets in this price range. That starts with Zay Flowers. He has blossomed into the Ravens’ unquestioned top target in the passing game. He’s racked up a 27% target share for the year, and he’s been at 29% or higher in four of his past five games. Flowers is coming off back-to-back games with at least 100 receiving yards, including a massive 32.7 DraftKings points last week vs. the Broncos.
Flowers does have more bust potential than you’d expect for a receiver in this price range, but his ceiling is outstanding. He had 12 targets in his first matchup vs. the Bengals, which was tied for his top mark this season.
Chase Brown is another borderline stud option. He started the year in a timeshare with Zack Moss, but Moss is expected to miss the rest of the season with an injury. That has opened the door for Brown to take on a larger role, and he responded with a 78.9% snap share last week. That was the third-best mark at the running back position.
Brown has always been an impactful player when given opportunities. He’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry this season, and he handled 90% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 9. He probably won’t get to 27 carries like he did last week vs. the Raiders, but even if the Bengals’ overall rushing pie is smaller, Brown should still get a huge chunk.
The only thing keeping Brown out of the elite tier of fantasy runners is his lack of usage in the passing game. He’s capable of catching passes out of the backfield, but the team has preferred guys like Moss and Trayveon Williams in that role this season. That doesn’t figure to change after acquiring Khalil Herbert before the deadline.
It ultimately makes Brown vulnerable in bad game scripts, which is a possibility vs. the Ravens. He still possesses plenty of upside, but there’s some risk here, too.
With Higgins doubtful to suit up, the coast is clear for Mike Gesicki to continue to see an expanded role as a pass-catcher. Gesicki has been underutilized for most of his career, but he’s an absolute freak of nature athletically. He ranks in the 96th percentile or better in nearly every athletic measurable, so it’s nice to see him getting a bit more burn.
Gesicki has had a target share of 20% without Higgins over the past two weeks, and he’s been targeted on 29% of his routes run. He’s still not an every-down player, but he’s a clear focal point on the passing attack whenever he’s in the pattern.
He stands out as underpriced across the industry, but he’s a steal at just $9,500 on FanDuel.
Rashod Bateman has had a nice year for the Ravens, serving as their No. 2 receiver. However, the team acquired Diontae Johnson before the trade deadline, so his days in that role are probably over. He still has some big-play potential, but he’s overpriced for his expected role moving forward.
The same goes for Justice Hill. He’s had some value at times this season as a pass-catcher, but at $5,200, he likely needs a touchdown to return value. With Keaton Mitchell potentially joining the fray at RB this week, he’s very tough to trust on DraftKings. If you’re going to play him, do it on FanDuel at just $7,500.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The defenses should garner very little ownership in a game with a 52.5 total, and both plays are showing up with positive leverage in Sim Labs.
- Diontae Johnson ($4,800 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel) – Johnson is a major x-factor on this slate. He had just a 27% route participation last week, but his role with the Ravens is clearly going to grow. He’s way too expensive on FanDuel, but he’s worth some consideration on DraftKings.
- Mark Andrews ($4,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) – Andrews has been a rollercoaster all season, and his role with the Ravens has declined sharply this year. However, he’s still one of their primary touchdown threats, scoring four times in the past four weeks. Isaiah Likely will also miss this week, which could give Andrews a few more snaps than usual.
- Andrei Iosivas ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Iosivas has seen a significant bump in routes in games without Higgins this season, and he’s been at 90% or higher in back-to-back games. He hasn’t been targeted much in those contests, but he’s on the field more than his current price tag suggests.
- Nelson Agholor ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Agholor is down to WR4 for the Ravens. He’s been targeted on a respectable 17% of his routes this season, but he doesn’t figure to see as many opportunities moving forward.
- Drew Sample ($2,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Sample had a season-high 49% route participation last week, and he was targeted on 20% of his routes run.
- Keaton Mitchell ($2,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Mitchell may return to the lineup this week, but he’s unlikely to have a real impact. He was impressive in this offense last year, but he’s not a real threat to steal work from Henry.
- Jermaine Burton ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Does the squeaky wheel get the grease? Burton is clearly unhappy with how his rookie season is going, and he was suspended by the team for disciplinary reasons last week. It’s possible they try to appease him in Week 10, but the Bengals have more important things to worry about.
- Tanner Hudson ($1,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Like Sample, Hudson also saw an uptick in opportunities last week following the injury to Erick All.
- Charlie Kolar ($600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Kolar could also benefit from the absence of Likely. He doesn’t need to do much to pay off his salary, and he helps fit multiple studs into your lineup.
