NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 4) for Bucs vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football

NFL Week 9 wraps up with a Monday Night Football contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are listed as nine-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5.

The Chiefs are currently sitting at 7-0, but they haven’t exactly dominated like in years past. Specifically, their offense is just 11th in yards per game, which would be the worst mark of the Patrick Mahomes era.

In a lot of ways, the Buccaneers have been the superior offensive team this season. However, injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans leave them with some questions on that side of the ball moving forward.

Let’s dive into the top DFS options for Monday Night Football.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Mahomes is the only player priced in the stud territory on DraftKings, which feels almost criminal for a Chiefs’ game. This is a team that was one of the best offenses in history during their prime; now, they don’t even have a single skill-position player that stands out as an elite option.

That’s not to say that the Chiefs have a bad offense. They’re 11th in points per game and 10th in EPA per play, but they’re not exactly what we’ve come to expect from a team with Mahomes and Andy Reid.

The Chiefs’ offensive struggles have had a huge impact on Mahomes. He’s on pace for career-worst marks in basically every category across the board. His average of 235.9 passing yards per game is the worst mark of his career by a mile, while he has more interceptions than touchdown passes. For fantasy purposes, Mahomes is merely QB19 in terms of fantasy points per game.

The paints a pretty uninspiring picture, but there are still plenty of reasons to be excited about Mahomes on Monday. For starters, the matchup vs. the Buccaneers is as good as it gets. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in pass defense EPA, and they have a good enough offense that quarterbacks have to play four full quarters. As a result, they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to the position, and Mahomes leads the slate with a +7.9 Opponent Plus/Minus.

Mahomes has also historically done some of his best work as a large favorite. In 48 games when favored by more than a touchdown, he’s averaged 24.74 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool).

Even in what has been a down year, Mahomes still dominates this slate from a projection standpoint. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well. He’s likely going to be the highest-owned player on the slate, but he’s tough to avoid.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Kareem Hunt has taken over as the Chiefs’ top running back following the injury to Isiah Pacheco. Hunt didn’t even start the year with the Chiefs, but he took over the starting role pretty quickly after being signed. His efficiency has left a lot to be desired – he’s averaged just 3.7 yards per carry – but his volume is absolutely elite. He’s totaled at least 21 carries in three straight games, and he’s scored at least one touchdown in each of them.

Like Mahomes, Hunt also benefits from this matchup. The Buccaneers aren’t quite as bad against the run as they are vs. the pass, but they still stand out as below-average in that department.

As a nearly double-digit favorite, there’s no reason to expect much to change for Hunt this week. He should approach 20 opportunities, and he has a good chance of finding the paint, too.

Baker Mayfield has been one of the best players in fantasy this season. He didn’t have a ton of expectations heading into this season, but he’s second at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. Only Lamar Jackson has been better, so Mayfield has massively exceeded expectations.

That makes his $9,600 salary feel a bit disrespectful. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all but one game this season, and he’s scored at least 23.4 DraftKings points in five straight games. It hasn’t always been pretty – he has at least two picks in three straight games – but he’s ultimately getting the job done.

Still, Mayfield feels a bit more vulnerable without his top two pass-catchers, especially vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City has had a strong defense since the start of last year, and they’re a top-five unit in points and yards per game allowed this season. Mayfield still has plenty of upside at his current price tag, but he also has a bit more bust potential than usual.

Both of these squads rely on a tight end as their top pass-catcher. That’s not a huge shock with the Chiefs. Travis Kelce has been one of the best tight ends in football for nearly a decade, and he’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing. He had 12 targets, 10 catches, and 90 yards, and he also scored his first touchdown of the year.

From a utilization standpoint, Kelce has also been outstanding. Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce has posted a 91% route participation and 31% target share. The only reason he hasn’t had a vintage “Kelce” season is the one touchdown.

There’s a chance that Kelce loses some work to DeAndre Hopkins moving forward, but until that happens, Kelce is the clear pass-catcher to target in KC.

Cade Otton is the more surprising stud TE in this matchup. He’s had a steady role in the Bucs’ offense all season, racking up an 86% route participation and 19% target share. However, his role has really taken off in recent weeks. He had a 22% target share vs. the Ravens in Week 8, and he got to 24% in his first full game without Evans and Godwin. Overall, Otton has had at least 21 DraftKings points in back-to-back games.

Still, it’s important to give his numbers a bit of context. A 24% target share is good for a tight end, but it’s not a game-changer in the single-game format. His production stems primarily from the fact that Mayfield has thrown the ball 95 times over the past two weeks. If they don’t have to throw the ball as much vs. the Chiefs, Otton could be a bit overpriced.

He’s a much more appealing target at just $10,000. It results in a slate-high 90% Bargain Rating, and he’s significantly cheaper than Kelce.

Xavier Worthy has been thrust into the WR1 role for the Chiefs, at least for the time being. He’s had a target share of at least 24% in back-to-back games, though he hasn’t been able to do much with it. He’s ultimately finished with just seven catches and 56 yards combined, but he did manage to salvage his fantasy output with a touchdown last week.

Worthy ultimately feels better suited for a complementary role at this point in his career. He still has game-changing speed, but he stands out as one of the more overpriced options across the industry.

The Buccaneers are using a trio of running backs at the moment, with Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Sean Tucker all factoring into the equation. However, White and Irving are the clear top two options. Irving has been the team’s primary early-down back – he had 45% of the carries last week – while White is the primary pass-catcher.

The pass-catching work ultimately makes White the superior fantasy option. He still had 30% of the team’s carries last week, and he’s caught three touchdowns in his past two outings. With the team so thin at receiver, getting more passes to the tight ends and running backs makes a lot of sense.

That said, neither White nor Irving stands out as a must-play. Both guys have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.4, which is the worst mark on the slate by a wide margin.

The biggest question this week is just how big a step forward Hopkins will take. He was acquired by the Chiefs to serve as their top receiver following the injuries to Rice and Hollywood Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is also out of the lineup, so the team needs whatever Hopkins can give them.

He was on the field for 33% of the team’s pass plays last week, but that should increase pretty significantly in Week 9. He was targeted on 21% of his routes run in his first contest, so if he can get to a 75-80% route participation, he has the potential to be a strong source of value. Hopkins may not be the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still probably the Chiefs’ best receiver.

Things are even worse than originally anticipated for the Bucs’ shorthanded receiving corps. Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are two of their top remaining options, but both players are questionable at the moment. However, both players were at least able to log a limited practice, so they should hopefully be in the lineup.

None of the receivers truly stepped up last week without Godwin and Evans. McMillan was the best of the bunch, posting a 15% target share and 90% route participation. That ultimately makes him the most likely receiver to post a good game vs. the Chiefs.

Shepard saw just a nine percent target share last week, which is around where he’s been for most of the season. He did see a slight uptick in routes, but he still wasn’t an every-down player. There are ultimately better options on this slate.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Chiefs defense is grading out as the most undervalued unit out of this quartet using Sim Labs.
• Samaje Perine ($4,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Perine has been the Chiefs’ primary pass-catching back this season, playing on 85% of the long-down and distance snaps. That has value in some situations, but a game where they’re nearly 10-point favorites doesn’t feel like one of them.
• Trey Palmer ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Palmer is one of the truly healthy bodies in the Bucs’ receiving corps. He’s had a route participation of at least 76% in back-to-back weeks, though that hasn’t materialized into much actual production.
• Justin Watson ($3,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Watson figures to be the biggest loser from a snap standpoint as Hopkins’ role continues to grow. He’s had a decent route rate all season, but he’s been targeted on just six percent of his routes run.
• Noah Gray ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Gray stands out as a strong value in our projections. He probably won’t see as many snaps as some of the other Chiefs’ pass-catchers, but he’s a solid part of the offense when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 16% of his routes run, and he’s always a threat to score around the goal line.
• Sean Tucker ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Tucker is playing just enough to make life uncomfortable for White and Irving. He doesn’t offer enough to have any standalone value.
• Carson Steele ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Steele is the Chiefs’ backup RB on early downs. That said, Hunt hasn’t left the field enough for that role to have any value.
• Mecole Hardman ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Like Gray, Hardman tends to make the most of his opportunities on the field. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run this season, though his route participation is a subpar 17%. Still, expect the Chiefs to get the ball in his hands once or twice on Monday.