We’ve got a sneaky-good contest on the docket for Sunday Night Football in Week 9. The Minnesota Vikings will host the Indianapolis Colts, with the Vikings listed as five-point favorites. The total sits at 46.5 points, so there’s expected to be a decent amount of scoring as well.
Neither of these teams entered the year with big expectations, but both are right in the middle of the playoff picture at the moment. The Vikings jumped out to a 5-0 record, but they’ve lost their past two games. The Colts are sitting at 4-4, but they’ve decided to make a big quarterback change heading into Sunday Night Football. Both teams have plenty of talented players on offense, so it should be an exciting DFS slate.
Let’s dive into some of the top fantasy options for Colts-Vikings.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Justin Jefferson is the highest-priced player on Sunday night, and it’s hard to argue that point. He’s still arguably the best receiver in football, and he has the underlying metrics to support it. Jefferson has a gaudy 35% target share to start the season, and he’s racked up 47% of his team’s air yards. Both of those are among the best marks in football. Only Malik Nabers and A.J. Brown have seen a higher percentage of their team’s targets this season, while Jefferson is tied for fourth in air-yards share.
Jefferson has also been one of the most consistent fantasy producers this season. He’s scored at least 15.2 DraftKings points in every game, and he’s eclipsed 20 DraftKings points in five of them. He’s yet to have a true “monster” performance, with his best being 26.3 DraftKings points vs. the 49ers in Week 2, but that’s due more to his offense than Jefferson himself. The Vikings haven’t had to throw the ball that often this season, averaging the fewest pass attempts per game (27.1).
There’s a chance the Vikings have to open things up a bit more this week. The Colts have been excellent against the run, ranking seventh in rush defense EPA, but they’re much more vulnerable against the pass. They drop to just 23rd in pass defense EPA, so it’s a spot where the passing attack could provide a bit more value than usual. If that happens, Jefferson has the potential for a huge outing.
Jonathan Taylor is the Colts’ marquee offensive player, and he returned to the lineup in Week 8 following a multi-week absence. He stepped right into a featured role, handling 81% of the team’s snaps and 80% of their carries. For the year, Taylor has 77% of the Colts’ carries when he’s been active, and that number is only that low because Anthony Richardson siphoned off a handful of carries for himself.
With Richardson now on the bench, Taylor should be an absolute workhorse for the Colts. That includes all of the goal-line carries.
The only knock on Taylor’s profile is that he’s not a prolific pass-catcher out of the backfield. He has just an eight percent target share for the year, and he’ll lose snaps on passing downs to Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson.
That’s a big deal. It does make him a bit vulnerable to bad game scripts, and with the Colts being underdogs in this spot, it’s a concern. Taylor has historically averaged 19.27 DraftKings points as a favorite, but that figure dips to just 17.53 as an underdog (per the Trends tool). It’s not enough to take Taylor out of the equation, but he has the worst projected Plus/Minus and the lowest median and ceiling projection in the stud tier.
Sam Darnold has had a resurgence with the Vikings this season. It seemed like his days as a starter might be over after flaming out with the Jets and Panthers, and the Vikings used their first-round pick on a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. However, the injury to J.J. McCarthy opened the door, and Darnold burst through it like the Kool-Aid Man.
Darnold has been a steady source of fantasy production all season. Like Jefferson, he hasn’t had a true monster performance, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. He’s finished as a top-11 fantasy quarterback in four separate weeks. His only true clunker came against the Jets in London, and he certainly gets a pass for that.
As good as Jefferson is, it’s hard not to consider Darnold the strongest play on the slate. He has the top median and ceiling projection, and he also leads all players in projected Plus/Minus. Playing Jefferson and Darnold together also makes a ton of sense, with the two players boasting an elite +0.66 correlation on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Joe Flacco may not have come straight off the couch like he did for the Browns last year, but he’s once again going to be thrust into the limelight. Flacco has started three games for the Colts so far this season, and he picked up basically right where he left off in Cleveland. He scored at least 14.66 DraftKings points in all three outings, including 30.56 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars in Week 5.
Flacco may not have the same physical gifts as Richardson, but he’s a better passer at this point in their respective careers. Unfortunately, his matchup vs. the Vikings isn’t ideal. They’re fifth in pass defense EPA so far this season, and they’ve allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
That said, the Vikings defense has come crashing back to reality over the past two weeks. They’re 29th in dropback EPA over that timeframe, and they surrendered at least 30 points to the Rams and Lions. Those are two elite offenses, but it’s possible that this unit is due for some regression moving forward. They’re 18th in yards per game allowed compared to ninth in points, so they’ve been a bit fortunate.
Aaron Jones has long been one of the most undervalued runners in football. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry for his career, but he was forced to split time at running back for most of his tenure with the Packers.
That hasn’t been the case in his first year with the Vikings. He’s handled at least 88% of the team’s carries in back-to-back games, and he played on 93% of the snaps last week. That’s elite usage, especially when you factor in his receiving skills out of the backfield. Jones stands out as underpriced at just $9,600, even in a tough matchup vs. the Colts.
The move from Richardson to Flacco should do wonders for the Colts’ pass catchers. Richardson was capable of hitting the occasional deep ball, but he struggled to make the consistent throws needed to move the chains in the NFL. That won’t be an issue with Flacco.
Josh Downs figures to be the biggest beneficiary. He displayed elite chemistry with Flacco during his three starts, posting a 28% target share. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in all three contests, finishing with 19.5, 15.9, and 22.2 DraftKings points. Downs has been priced up to $8,000 on DraftKings, but he still stands out as a strong target.
The same goes for Michael Pittman. Pittman wasn’t quite as busy with Flacco as Downs, but he still had decent metrics across the board. He had at least 12.5 DraftKings points in all three games, including 20.3 DraftKings points vs. the Steelers in Flacco’s first start.
Pittman stands out as an elite option at just $10,000 on FanDuel, where his 87% Bargain Rating is the second-best mark on the slate.
T.J. Hockenson will suit up for the first time this season after suffering an ACL injury in Week 17 last year. It’s a big boost for the Vikings overall, who have relied on a combination of Johnny Mundt and Josh Oliver at the position this season.
Still, Hockenson might not be at 100 percent in his first game back. The team could limit his snaps, and he’s still going to have to compete with a bunch of talented players for targets. He’s a risky option on DraftKings, but he has some appeal at $9,500 on FanDuel.
Jordan Addison is the preferred secondary pass catcher for the Vikings on this slate. He’s been the clear No. 2 target for the team all season, racking up a 17% target share and 29% air yards share. He’s also displayed a decent ceiling, going off for 22.2 DraftKings points vs. the Packers in Week 2.
Alec Pierce rounds out the Colts’ receiver trio, but it’s a lot harder to get excited about his prospects. He did have a big performance in one of Flacco’s starts, finishing with 25.4 DraftKings points vs. the Jaguars, but he did it on just three targets. Overall, his target share sits at just eight percent across Flacco’s three starts. Pierce still has some big-play upside, but he’s overpriced for his most likely outcome.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Both defenses are showing up as underowned compared to their optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs.
- Jalen Nailor ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Nailor has been a healthy part of the Vikings’ passing attack in recent weeks. He’s posted a target share of at least 17% in back-to-back games, and his route participation was up to 83% in Week 7. There’s a chance he plays a bit less now that Hockenson is back, but he still has some appeal at a cheap price tag.
- Trey Sermon ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Sermon’s days of fantasy viability are pretty much done now that Taylor is healthy. However, Sermon did play on 53% of the long-down and distance situations last week, so he could have some upside if you think the Colts get blown out.
- Adonai Mitchell ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Mitchell hasn’t seen a ton of snaps this season, but the Colts tend to get him the ball when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 32% of his routes run this season, including 44% in Flacco’s three contests. He has game-changing speed, so he only needs one touch to potentially score a touchdown.
- Ty Chandler ($2,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Chandler has averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt this season, and his opportunities are trending in the wrong direction.
- Mo Alie-Cox ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – The Colts employ a committee at tight end, with all four players seeing about the same number of snaps. Alie-Cox has just a five percent target share for the year, but he was slightly more involved in Flacco’s starts.
- Johnny Mundt ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – If Hockenson isn’t thrust right back into an every-down role, Mundt could still see a decent handful of snaps vs. the Colts.
- Drew Ogletree ($600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Ogletree is another of the Colts’ tight ends, and he leads the group with a target on 16% of his routes run. However, he dipped to just a 10% route participation last week.
- Will Mallory ($200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Mallory saw a slight uptick in routes last week, and he’s priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings.
