Thanksgiving may be in the books, but the NFL action doesn’t stop. This will be the second straight year with a game on Black Friday, with this edition featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs are listed as 13-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5.
The Chiefs continue to dominate the rest of the league. It hasn’t always been pretty this season, but they’ve cruised to 10 wins through their first 11 games. Their offense hasn’t had the same statistical success as in years past, but they continue to do enough to outscore their opponents.
On the other side, the Raiders are merely playing out the string. They’ve lost seven straight games, with the past three each being by double-digits. They’re also going to have a new starting quarterback this week after Garnder Minshew went down with an injury.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Black Friday.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Even though he hasn’t had his best year, Patrick Mahomes still stands out as one of the best quarterbacks in football. His fantasy production has also trended up. He posted a negative Plus/Minus in five of his first six games, but he’s had a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five.
The big reason is a schematic shift for the Chiefs of late. They had a -3% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) across their first six outings, but they’re up to +6% over their past five. They’ve been at +12% in two of their past three games, so the Chiefs are starting to let their star quarterback cook.
He’s coming off his best performance of the year in his last outing. He racked up 269 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Panthers, and he added 60 rushing yards. The result was 28.76 DraftKings points, his second game with at least 24.54 in his past four.
If Mahomes gets to throw it at a high clip against the Raiders, he has significant upside. They’re 27th in pass defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
The large point spread is a bit of a concern – he might not have to throw if this game is a blowout – but Mahomes has historically done some of his best work as a large favorite. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.35 when favored by at least 10 points (per the Trends tool).
On a slate with limited pay-up options, Mahomes is clearly in play. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Brock Bowers is the other stud target on this slate, and his workload has been insane since the Raiders lost Davante Adams. He’s posted a 30% target share over his past seven outings, and he’s had double-digit targets in five of seven games.
Bowers has displayed an excellent ceiling over that time frame, turning in performances of 34.3 and 23.7 DraftKings points. That said, he’s also posted a negative Plus/Minus in four of his past six games. That includes his first matchup vs. the Chiefs, who limited him to five targets, five receptions, and 58 yards.
That makes Bowers a boom-or-bust type of option on this slate. He does have the third-highest ceiling projection – and the top mark among non-quarterbacks – but he doesn’t stand out as a particularly strong value.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Travis Kelce looks very similar to Bowers, but he has the benefit of getting to play with Mahomes. That’s pretty significant.
Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce has emerged as the team’s clear No. 1 pass-catcher. He’s posted a 28% target share since Week 5, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past eight games. That said, he has failed to return value in two straight.
Still, Kelce has been a very reliable producer in terms of receptions and yards; he simply hasn’t found the paint as much as you’d expect. He has just two receiving touchdowns for the year, which is two fewer than backup TE Noah Gray. PFF credits him with 5.4 expected receiving touchdowns, so he’s due for some positive regression.
Kelce had one of his two touchdowns this season in his first meeting vs. the Raiders, and he added 10 catches and 90 yards. He’s definitely in play in the rematch.
Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt are next on the pricing spectrum. Pacheco is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since landing on IR, which puts the backfield in a bit of flux. He’ll likely resume the top RB spot, but he may not handle his pre-injury workload in his first game back.
That makes both he and Hunt tough to target, even as massive favorites. If you are going to play one, Pacheco has the better projections in our NFL Models.
Aidan O’Connell will get the nod at quarterback this week for the Raiders. He’s made just two starts this season, and he left one early with an injury. In his only full game, he completed 27 of 40 passes for 227 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He finished with just 12.08 DraftKings points, which was not enough to pay off his $7,800 salary.
He’s up to $8,800 for this contest vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City emerged as an elite defensive squad last year, but they haven’t been quite as good on that side of the ball this season. They’re merely 18th in pass defense EPA, and they’re 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
O’Connell definitely has less upside than most QBs, but he’s still a quarterback. They inherently score more fantasy points than any other position, so getting one at a discount is always appealing in the single-game format.
O’Connell is an absolute free square on FanDuel, where he’s priced at just $5,000. That’s the type of salary typically reserved for third-string tight ends, not starting quarterbacks. Anything less than 100% ownership there is a mistake.
De’Andre Hopkins was acquired by the Chiefs to help bolster their injured receiving corps. That said, he hasn’t been an every-down player. He had just a 33% route participation in his first game with the team, and that figure has increased to just 58% over his past four.
However, Hopkins has been one of the primary targets whenever he’s been on the field. He’s been targeted on 23% of his routes since landing in KC, giving him a smidge of appeal.
Unfortunately, he seems a bit overpriced at $8,400. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one game as a member of the Chiefs, and that was a game where he scored two touchdowns. He scored once in his last outing, and that still wasn’t good enough to pay off his current price tag.
Jakobi Meyers is far more appealing in the same price range. Like Bowers, he’s been a target monster since Adams was removed from the equation. He’s posted a 28% target share starting in Week 4, including a 32% mark last week.
We’ve yet to see Meyers play a full game with O’Connell, but there’s no reason to expect much to change in Week 13. He’s significantly underpriced for the amount of volume he’s been receiving in a game where the Raiders are expected to play from behind.
Xavier Worthy has seen a pretty consistent role for the Chiefs all season, regardless of who the team has had alongside him at receiver. He’s run a route on roughly 75% of their pass plays in most weeks, which is the top mark on the squad. He has a 15% target share for the year, and he’s been at 17% in his past two outings.
What Worthy brings to the table is raw, unadulterated speed. He ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history, so he doesn’t need a ton of opportunities to make a game-changing play. He’s a boom-or-bust type of option, but he has upside.
The Raiders injury report will be important to monitor heading into this contest. They were without both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison last week, and they could be without both players once again vs. the Chiefs. White has yet to practice this week, while Mattison has gotten in two limited sessions. I’m tentatively expecting White to sit, but the Mattison situation is a bit murkier.
If both players are out, Ameer Abdullah is expected to be the team’s top option in the backfield. He played on 89% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he handled 57% of the carries while posting a 15% target share. He ultimately finished with 17.5 DraftKings points, so he would definitely be worth consideration if White and Mattison sit again.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The kickers stand out as better values on this slate, while the Chiefs defense is criminally overpriced.
- Tre Tucker ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Tucker has been on the field for nearly 100% of the passing plays in recent weeks, posting a 93% route participation since losing Adams. He hasn’t commanded a ton of targets over that stretch, but he’s a solid source of value at just $4,400.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Smith-Schuster returned to the lineup in Week 11, and he posted a 53% route participation in Week 12. He’s failed to crack a 10% target share in either, but his role could continue to grow.
- Noah Gray ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) – Gray’s two touchdowns last week were definitely fluky – as were his two the week prior – but his role with the Chiefs’ offense has been pretty consistent. They’re using a bunch of two-TE sets, so he should continue to get opportunities. He’s the Chiefs’ best option in this price range.
- Samaje Perine ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Perine is now the RB3 in Kansas City, but he could continue to work in on passing downs.
- Justin Watson ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Watson typically sees plenty of snaps, but he’s usually capped at one or two targets per game. He’s cracked 6.3 DraftKings points once in 11 games.
- D.J. Turner ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Like Tucker, Turner is another member of the Raiders’ passing attack who is underpriced for the number of routes he’s running.
- Michael Mayer ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Mayer is the Raiders’ TE2, but he’s on the field for a decent number of snaps each week.
- Sincere McCormick ($800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – With the way the Raiders’ season has gone, it should surprise no one if they start to siphon some of the RB touches to younger players. McCormick and Dylan Laube both fit that description.
