NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 24) for Eagles vs. Rams Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football for NFL Week 12 features a really fun matchup. The Eagles will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Rams, and they’re currently listed as three-point road favorites. The total for the game sits at 48.5 points.

The Eagles have quietly been on a tear recently. They’ve rattled off six straight wins since their Week 5 bye, including a huge win vs. the Commanders last week. Their defense is back to being one of the best in football after completely collapsing down the stretch last year, and they’re arguably the biggest threat to the Lions in the NFC.

Meanwhile, the Rams have won four of their past five games, so they’re right back in the hunt in the wide-open NFC West. When they’ve been healthy this season, their offense has been one of the best in football.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

There are lots of strong fantasy producers to consider in this matchup, but only two can be classified as “studs.” That starts with Saquon Barkley, who has been arguably the best running back in fantasy this season. His average of 22.0 PPR points per game is the second-best at the position, and he’s had five weeks where he’s finished as a top-three scorer at running back. That includes three weeks at No. 1 overall, including last week vs. the Commanders.

Barkley has always been an elite talent, but he was wasted playing behind the Giants’ pitiful offensive line. Now that he’s playing for an elite run-blocking unit, the results have been even better than expected. He’s averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and his average of 113.7 rushing yards per game is the top mark in football. He’s also managed to punch in 10 touchdowns in 10 games, and he’s gone for at least 150 rushing yards and a touchdown in three of his past five outings.

I’m not sure that anyone can slow down Barkley at the moment, but the Rams are going to give it their best shot. They’ve improved significantly on defense as the year has progressed, and they’re No. 3 in rush defense EPA since Week 8. The last running back to eclipse 100 yards against the Rams was James Conner, and that came all the way back in Week 2.

Still, stopping most running backs and stopping Barkley are completely different animals. He has the highest ceiling projection among the non-quarterbacks on this slate, and he’s No. 2 in median projection overall.

As good as Barkley is, Jalen Hurts might be the superior fantasy option. He got off to a slow start this season, but he’s all the way up to No. 2 at the position in fantasy points per game. Only Lamar Jackson has been better this season, and Hurts has outscored him in three of the past four weeks.

Hurts hasn’t been asked to throw the ball a ton recently – he’s averaged just 21.8 attempts per game since the bye – but he’s displayed some of the best efficiency of his career. He’s averaged 10.55 adjusted yards per attempt over that time frame to go along with eight touchdowns and one interception. Despite the limited volume, he’s still managed 211.2 passing yards and 1.3 passing touchdowns per game over that time frame.

Those numbers aren’t nearly good enough to make Hurts an elite fantasy QB on their own, but they’re more than acceptable when combined with his legs. He remains one of the top rushing threats in football, particularly around the goal line. Hurts has averaged 10.3 carries and 41.7 rushing yards per game this year, and he’s punched in 11 touchdowns. He has at least one rushing score in five straight games, and he has multiple TDs in three of them.

While Barkley is the team’s clear top runner, Hurts remains their preferred option in close. He’s handled 46% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, while Barkley is at just 42%. 

The matchup also looks a bit friendlier for Hurts. The Rams have allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but they’re merely 16th against QBs. As a result, Hurts has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.7, while Barkley checks in at -2.8.

Ultimately, Hurts stands out as the top target on the slate. He leads all players in median and ceiling projection, and he’s No. 1 in projected Plus/Minus as well.

Regardless of who you choose, pairing Hurts and Barkley together is riskier than you might think. They have a correlation of -0.37, so one tends to succeed at the expense of the other. This is a situation where picking one makes more sense than stacking both players together.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The big news on this slate involves the injury to DeVonta Smith. He missed practice all week and has ultimately been ruled out for Sunday Night Football. Smith has a 26% target share and 33% air yards share when he’s been on the field this season, so his absence is going to open up some value for the rest of the Eagles’ pass-catchers.

A.J. Brown stands out as the biggest potential beneficiary. He’s already been an absolute monster for the Eagles this season. He’s racked up a 32% target share and 49% air yards share, both of which are among the top marks in football. Brown has also hauled in three touchdowns, though he hasn’t scored in four straight games. If not for the Eagles’ offense being extremely run-heavy, Brown would be on pace for a monster season.

Still, Brown has proven that he can succeed in this offense. He has at least 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his seven games, and with Smith sidelined, he has even more upside than usual. His price has also dipped down below $10,000 for just the third time this year. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in his first two games below that threshold, and there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again.

Splitting the Rams’ top receivers is significantly more difficult. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have put together some huge games since the start of last season, but we haven’t seen them on the field together all that often. Both guys missed large chunks of this year with injury, so there have been just two games where both players have had at least a 78% route participation.

Both players are coming off excellent performances last week. Kupp finished with 31.6 DraftKings points on six catches, 106 yards, and two scores, while Nakua had 28.3 DraftKings points of his own. Ultimately, both players look like solid options at their current price tags.

That said, I’m siding with Nakua if only choosing one. His underlying metrics look more impressive over their two full games together. He’s racked up a 32% target share and 38% air yards share in those contests, while Kupp is at 26% and 30%, respectively. It’s only a two-game sample size, but that points towards Nakua being the WR1 in this offense. If Kupp didn’t find the endzone twice last Sunday, Nakua would likely be the more expensive receiver vs. the Eagles.

Kyren Williams rounds out the Rams’ “big three” at the skill positions, though he hasn’t been particularly good for fantasy purposes of late. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, with the Rams doing most of their damage through the air instead of on the ground.

That said, there’s no real reason to panic with Williams yet. His utilization still looks really good, garnering an 88% snap share and 77% carry share for the year. He did take a slight step back in carries last week – his 63% carry share was his second-lowest mark of the year – but he was at 88% or higher in each of his previous two games.

All signs still point toward Williams being the clear No. 1 option in the Rams’ backfield. His lack of pass-catching upside does cap his ceiling, but he’s a very reasonable buy-low target at $9,400. He was priced at $11,000 for last week’s tilt vs. the Patriots, and it’s the first time he’s been priced below $10,000 since Week 1. Williams is a particularly strong buy-low target on FanDuel, where his 90% Bargain Rating is the top mark on the slate.

Choosing between Kupp and Nacua might be a headache for fantasy players, but Matthew Stafford doesn’t have that issue. He simply gets to benefit from having one of the best receiver tandems in all of football.

Since both players have returned to the lineup, Stafford has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games. He’s scored at least 25.76 DraftKings points in two of those outings, finishing as a top-six option at the position in both weeks.

Stafford doesn’t have the rushing upside that you typically look for in a high-end fantasy QB, but he provides more upside with his arm than most. The Rams’ offense has been one of the top units in football when at full strength over the past two years, so Stafford is underpriced at just $9,000.

After Stafford, there’s a pretty clear drop-off to the next tier of producers. Dallas Goedert is priced at just $6,800, so he’s significantly cheaper than the other players in this price range.

Goedert hasn’t had his best season, which is not surprising with the Eagles throwing the ball at a minuscule rate. However, he should see an uptick in opportunities with Smith sidelined. Even with Smith posting a 97% route participation last week, Goedert still managed to rack up a 21% target share vs. the Commanders.

The Rams have also been a bit more exploitable in the middle of the field than on the perimeter. They’re allowing the ninth-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, but they’re No. 16 vs. receivers.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Eagles defense stands out as the most undervalued relative to their projected ownership in Sim Labs.
• Demarcus Robinson ($4,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Robinson was a major bust as the team’s top receiver when Kupp and Nacua were sidelined, but he’s excelled in the WR3 role this season. He’s posted a 15% target share and 23% air yards share over his past three games, which is enough to keep him on the DFS radar.
• Tutu Atwell ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Atwell’s opportunities have been slashed as the team has gotten healthier at receiver, but he still has game-breaking speed. He only needs one touch to potentially score a long touchdown, and he has multiple targets in three of his past four games.
• Kenneth Gainwell ($3,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Gainwell is the Eagles’ No. 2 running back, and he does play a bit on third down. That said, he has more than one target in just one game this season. 
• Jahan Dotson ($2,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Dotson will likely assume the No. 2 receiver role for the Eagles vs. the Rams. Snaps haven’t really been an issue for Dotson this season, but he’s struggled to an 8% target rate. Even when Smith and Brown were both out of the lineup, Dotson could never top a 14% mark.
• Blake Corum ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Corum saw a season-high 20% snap share last week, and he logged 21% of the rushing attempts. That might just be a one-week outlier, but it could also represent a slight change moving forward.
• Colby Parkinson ($2,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Parkinson didn’t see a single target in Week 9 or 10, so naturally, he caught a touchdown last week. Still, that was his only target of the game, so his role in the offense is diminishing.
• Davis Allen ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Allen’s snaps are on the rise, and he’s had a 66% route participation over the past three weeks. He wasn’t targeted last week vs. the Patriots, but he’s the Rams’ TE to target at the moment.
• Grant Calcaterra ($1,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Without Smith, the Eagles could lean on more two-TE sets in this matchup. That would benefit Calcaterra, who has just a 31% route participation since Goedert returned to the lineup.
• Tyler Johnson ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Johnson didn’t earn a single target last week, and he dipped to just a 15% route participation. He’s still seeing the field occasionally, but he’s the Rams’ WR5 at this point.
• Johnny Wilson ($800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Wilson stands out as an intriguing punt play with Smith sidelined. He’s still likely behind Dotson in the pecking order, but he should see a boost in snaps and has been targeted on 10% of his routes run this season.
• Ainias Smith ($400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Smith has played very sparingly, but he’s another potential punt play with Smith out.