NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 21) for Steelers vs. Browns Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 12 gets underway with an AFC North rivalry game. The Steelers will travel to Cleveland to take on the Browns, and the Steelers are listed as 3.5-point road favorites. The defenses are expected to reign supreme, with the total currently sitting at 37.0.

Pittsburgh is coming off a massive win last week vs. the Ravens, giving them a solid lead in the division. Their defense has been one of the best in football, while their offense has shown new life since switching quarterbacks.

It hasn’t been the same type of season for Cleveland. They’ve won just two of their first 10 games, and they’ve regressed on both sides of the ball. Their defense was one of the best in football last year, but they’ve been more of a middle-of-the-pack squad this season. Their offense is just 31st in EPA per play, though they have looked a bit better since losing DeShaun Watson.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Thursday Night Football.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

There isn’t a ton of marquee DFS talent available on this slate. Only two players are priced in the five-figure range, and they’re not guys that you would usually consider elite options.

George Pickens is the most expensive player in this contest, and he’s operated as the team’s top receiver all season. He’s commanded a 29% target share and 47% air yards share, both of which are excellent figures.

Pickens has also been the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers’ QB change. He’s scored at least 16.9 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s finished as a top-18 PPR WR in each of them. He’s coming off a season-high 39% target share in his last outing, and he caught eight balls for 89 yards.

No one on this slate really stands out from a matchup perspective, but Pickens is better than most in that department. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.7 is tied for the second-highest mark on DraftKings.

Ultimately, $11,000 is more than you’d expect to pay for Pickens on a normal slate, but we have to pay for someone on Thursday. He has the highest median and ceiling projection for any non-QB in this matchup.

Russell Wilson is the other stud option on this slate. He’s played pretty well since taking over as the Steelers’ starting QB, logging at least 19.1 DraftKings points in two of his first three games. Unfortunately, he came crashing back to reality in his last start. He racked up just 7.3 DraftKings points in an elite matchup vs. the Ravens, finishing with just 205 yards, zero touchdowns, and one interception.

That’s a bit of a concern, but the good has still outweighed the bad overall. He’s finished as a top-10 fantasy QB in two of four starts, and he’s averaged 8.03 adjusted yards per attempt. That represents a significant increase from his marks over his past two seasons in Denver, so he’s playing better than he has since leaving Seattle.

That said, there are a few things working against Wilson on this slate. His price is up, and the Browns have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson has also historically fared worse when playing on the road, posting a -0.54 Plus/Minus in that split (per the Trends tool).

Still, Wilson is a quarterback, and quarterbacks always have some appeal in the single-game format. He has the highest ceiling and median projection on the slate.

The one caveat with Pickens, Wilson, and the rest of the pass-game options on this slate is the weather. The current forecast looks pretty bleak. It’s not truly awful, but they’re anticipating near-freezing temperatures and a rain/snow mix. It’s far from optimal conditions, so it could be a slate where it’s harder to throw than usual.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

Jameis Winston is the other quarterback in this matchup, and he’s no stranger to slinging the ball all over the field. He’s thrown for at least 400 air yards in each start this season, and that’s led to some big production. He’s scored at least 27.56 DraftKings points in two of his three outings, with his matchup vs. the Chargers standing out as the lone outlier.

Unfortunately, the Steelers are about as tough as it gets from a matchup standpoint. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Winston’s -5.5 Opponent Plus/Minus is the worst mark on the slate. Add in the weather concerns, and there’s plenty of downside with him in this spot.

Still, there’s clearly some upside as well. He’s thrown the ball at least 41 times in all three starts, and I’d argue that his ceiling is a bit higher than Wilson’s. Wilson has topped out at 24.86 DraftKings points in his four outings, so Winston could be the preferred option at a slightly cheaper salary.

Najee Harris is next on the pricing spectrum, and in some ways, he’s having his best season. He’s averaged a career-best 4.5 yards per touch, and he’s running with more explosiveness than we’ve seen in years past.

However, his volume continues to decline. Harris led the league in touches as a rookie, but he’s seen fewer opportunities in each subsequent year. He remains the team’s top option in the backfield, but Jaylen Warren continues to cut into his usage.

That’s particularly true in pass-catching situations. Harris has posted just a 35% route participation since Warren returned in Week 6, and he owns an 8% target share over that stretch. That makes scoring a touchdown or two Harris’ most likely path to relevance.

If you are going to play the weather narrative, Harris does figure to be one of the primary beneficiaries. While poor weather impacts the passing game, it can actually benefit the run game. It occasionally leads to more carries and short passes, so Harris would see a bump in that scenario.

Nick Chubb is the Browns’ starting running back, and he has historically been one of the most efficient runners in NFL history. He’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry for his career, putting him in the same stratosphere as guys like Jim Brown and Jamaal Charles.

Chubb recently returned from a knee injury that he suffered last season, and he hasn’t looked like the same player. He’s averaged just 3.1 yards per attempt through his first four games, though his production was slightly improved in Week 11.

Like Harris, Chubb is going to have to do most of his damage between the tackles. Jerome Ford has actually played more snaps than Chubb recently, and he’s the team’s preferred pass-catcher out of the backfield. Chubb has handled 64% of the team’s rushing attempts since returning to the lineup, but that alone might not provide enough value in a game where the Browns are underdogs. He ultimately owns the worst projected Plus/Minus on the slate.

The Browns have a ton of pass-catchers in this price range, and it’s a bit tough to separate them. Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, and Cedric Tillman are separated by just -$1,000 on DraftKings, and Elijah Moore isn’t too far behind.

Since Jameis took over at QB, these guys all look remarkably similar. Jeudy has a 24% target share, while Tillman and Moore are both at 22%. Tillman has racked up a 30% air yards share, while Jeudy and Moore are at 29% and 27%, respectively. Njoku hasn’t been quite as involved at tight end – he has an 18% target share and 9% air yards share – but he’s scored at least 17.1 DraftKings points in two of three outings.

Unsurprisingly, all four players grade out remarkably similar in our projections. Njoku has the highest median projection, while Jeudy is tops from a ceiling perspective. Tillman has the best projected Plus/Minus, but it’s razor-thin between all four guys. Ultimately, it’s going to require a little luck to end up on the right side.

Using Sim Labs, Njoku stands out as the best option at his projected ownership. He’s projected for less ownership in the flex than his optimal lineup rate, which the other three options can’t say.

Warren rounds out this price range, and his role in the Steelers’ offense continues to grow. He’s played on 41% of the team’s offensive snaps since returning in Week 6, and he’s handled 29% of their carries. More importantly, he has an 11% target share, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back weeks. He might not have the best ceiling for his price tag, but he’s a low-risk option.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The defenses get a bump with the current weather situation, while the kickers get a slight downgrade.
• Jerome Ford ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Ford’s ability as a pass-catcher makes him desirable in this price range. The Browns spent most of last week playing from behind, so Ford was on the field for just under 60% of the snaps. He could be looking at another expanded role if the team falls behind once again.
• Pat Freiermuth ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – While most of the Steelers’ pass-catchers have benefited from the change at QB, Freiermuth is not one of them. He’s had just an 8% target share in Wilson’s four starts. His best chance at returning value is by finding the end zone. 
• Mike Williams ($3,200 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) – Williams was acquired by the Steelers before the trade deadline, and he caught a touchdown in his first game. Williams did see slightly more snaps in Week 11, but he failed to log a single target. I’d expect another step forward vs. the Browns, making him an interesting tournament option.
• Van Jefferson ($2,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Any additional snaps for Williams will likely come at the expense of Jefferson. His route participation dipped to 54% last week, and he had just a 3% target share.
• Darnell Washington ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Washington is arguably the Steelers’ top target at tight end at the moment. He’s not on the field nearly as much as Freiermuth, but he’s been targeted at a much higher rate.
• Calvin Austin ($2,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Austin has also seen fewer routes recently, but he’s remained a pretty consistent threat in the passing game. He has a 15% target share with Wilson at QB, so he’s underpriced at $2,000.
• Jordan Akins ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Akins is the Browns’ No. 2 TE, but he’s seen four targets in back-to-back weeks.
• Cordarrelle Patterson ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – With Warren back, Patterson is playing pretty sparingly at the moment. That said, he was on the field for 15% of the snaps last week, and he’s always a threat with the ball in his hands.