NFL Week 11 gets underway with a really important Thursday Night Football matchup. The Philadelphia Eagles will host the Washington Commanders with first place in the NFC East on the line. The Eagles are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
The Commands have massively overperformed this season, already eclipsing their season-long over/under. Despite possessing a rookie quarterback, they’re second in the league in EPA per play, so their offense has been a wagon. That said, they’ve taken a bit of a step backward in recent weeks, so we’ll see what they have in store for the Eagles.
Philadelphia looked a bit shaky to start the year, but they’re a perfect 5-0 following their Week 5 bye. They’ve been strong on both sides of the ball, and they’re a top-three team in terms of both scoring and yardage differential for the year. The Commanders will be their toughest opponent in weeks, so we’ll see if they can slow them down.
Let’s dive into all of the top DFS options for Thursday Night Football.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
This game has a ton of marquee fantasy options to choose from, starting with the two quarterbacks. Jalen Hurts is the most expensive option at $11,000 on DraftKings, and he’s been a fantasy monster since returning from his bye week. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 29.9 DraftKings points in three straight.
That said, how he’s doing it feels a bit fluky. He’s thrown the ball 25 times or fewer in five straight games, and his two biggest fantasy performances came in games where he threw just 20 times. What Hurts has done extremely well is get pushed into the end zone by his teammates. He has six rushing touchdowns over his past three games, and three of them have come from one yard out. The “tush push” is always going to be a huge part of the Eagles’ gameplan – it’s basically unstoppable – but there’s no guarantee that they get stopped at the one-yard line that frequently moving forward.
Still, even if you take away some of the short touchdowns, Hurts has still been a really good fantasy quarterback. Dating back to the start of last season, he’s arguably the best quarterback in all of fantasy. He leads this slate in median and ceiling projection, and he’s first in projected Plus/Minus as well.
Jayden Daniels is the other quarterback, and he’s a shoo-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year as long as he stays healthy. For fantasy purposes, he’s been the eighth-best quarterback in terms of points per game, trailing only established superstar quarterbacks like Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.
However, Daniels’ production has declined in recent weeks. He had at least 20.96 DraftKings points in five of his first six games, but he’s been under that threshold in three of his past four. One of those was a game that he left early with an injury, but last week’s game vs. the Steelers was concerning. He finished with just 8.58 DraftKings points, and he struggled with both his arm and his legs.
He’ll face another tough matchup this week vs. the Eagles. Philly’s defense was atrocious down the stretch last year, but they completely overhauled their secondary this offseason. Those moves have paid dividends, with Philly ranking sixth in pass defense EPA in 2024. For fantasy purposes, they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks.
The good news with Daniels is that his price tag has come down pretty significantly. He’s priced at just $10,400 vs. the Eagles after checking in at $11,400 last week. That gives him some buy-low appeal. His floor is significantly lower than Hurts, but his ceiling is pretty comparable.
Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown round out this price range. Barkley has been an absolute monster in his first year with the Eagles. He’s averaged 5.8 yards per carry behind their phenomenal offensive line, and he’s averaged a career-best 110.0 yards per game. If not for Derrick Henry having a ridiculous season for Baltimore, Barkley would be on pace to lead the league in every RB metric.
Barkley’s ceiling is as high as any RB in football. He’s already had three weeks where he’s finished as the No. 1 RB in PPR scoring, and he has an additional No. 3 finish. He’s ultimately scored at least 29.7 DraftKings points in 50% of his games.
Barkley has historically been at his best as a favorite, averaging a +4.95 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). He’s the clear top non-quarterback on this slate, and you could argue he’s the best option overall.
As for Brown, he’s been one of the biggest target hogs in the entire league. He’s posted a 32% target share and 49% air yards share, both of which are among the best marks in football. Brown has averaged a career-best 19.8 yards per reception, resulting in an average of 92.2 receiving yards per game.
The only issue with Brown is that the Eagles don’t throw the ball that often. They’re averaging the fewest number of pass attempts per game, which has limited Brown’s overall volume. He’s had six targets or fewer in three of his past four games.
Brown has still managed to make the most of targets, but it’s not the type of volume you expect for a stud receiver. Unless the Eagles throw the ball more than expected this week, it makes Brown a risky investment at $10,000.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Terry McLaurin has been the Commanders’ top receiver this season. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as Brown, but he’s racked up a 25% target share and 44% air yards share. He’s also seen 45% of the team’s end zone targets, and he’s the only player on the team with more than one receiving touchdown this season.
McLaurin had a slow start to the year, scoring 8.2 DraftKings points or fewer in his first two games, but he’s been remarkably consistent since then. He’s scored at least 15.8 DraftKings points in eight straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of them.
The Eagles have some standout corners – Cooper DeJean is the No. 1 cover corner per PFF – but this price tag seems too low for McLaurin. He was as high as $10,400 last week, so he’s worth considering at this price tag.
DeVonta Smith has historically been the 1B to Brown’s 1A in the Eagles’ passing attack. That has basically been the case this year as well. Smith has a 26% target share and 33% air yards share, so he’s in the same ballpark as Brown in both metrics.
However, Smith’s production has been much more inconsistent. He’s had some weeks with huge target numbers and others where he’s barely been involved. He’s had three games with a target share of 17% or lower, including a 15% mark last week vs. the Cowboys.
His inconsistency is reflected in his fantasy scoring. He’s had games with 15.4, 20.5, and 18.7 DraftKings points in the past five weeks, but he’s also had games of 0.80 and 3.4. His volatile nature could scare some people off of him, particularly as a Captain. He’s projected for just 4.1% ownership in that slot, but his optimal rate is greater than five percent. That may not feel like a huge discrepancy, but it’s the largest on the slate.
Brian Robinson is set to return to the Commanders’ lineup after missing the past two weeks. While that’s great for Robinson, it’s not great news for DFS players. Robinson and Austin Ekeler both see a reduction in value, and it’s tough to trust either against a defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
Robinson has been the team’s preferred between-the-tackles grinder when healthy this season, racking up 52% of their rushing attempts. He’s also the most likely running back to find the paint, handling 83% of the short-yardage opportunities.
However, Ekeler is the superior pass-catcher out of the backfield, which makes him the preferred option for fantasy purposes. He’s projected for more fantasy points than Robinson at a cheaper price tag, which makes sense in a game where the Commanders are underdogs.
With Brown and Smith dominating the targets for Philadelphia, there hasn’t been much left for anyone else. That includes Dallas Goedert. Goedert has historically been one of the better pass-catching tight ends in football, but his involvement has plummeted in games with both receivers healthy. He’s had a target share of 15% or lower in four of his six games, so he’s overpriced at $6,600.
Noah Brown is the more appealing pass-catcher in this price range. His role with the Commanders has steadily grown throughout the year, culminating with a 97% route participation last week vs. the Steelers. He’s had a 23% target share over the past three games, which is actually slightly better than McLaurin’s mark over the same timeframe. Brown stands out as one of the strongest options on the slate, leading the entire midrange in projected Plus/Minus.
Zach Ertz is another reasonable option for the Commanders. Like Brown, he has a 23% target share over the past three games, and he sits at 19% for the season. He’s the No. 12 TE in PPR scoring, and the only reason he isn’t higher is a lack of touchdowns. He has just one for the year, and if he can find the paint vs. the old team, he’s a good bet to return value.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Both defenses are showing up as under-owned options relative to their optimal lineup rates in Sim Labs.
- Jahan Dotson ($4,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Dotson has had a pretty consistent role for the Eagles this season, logging a route participation of at least 59% in every game. That said, he has just a 6% target share for the year. He’s had a single-digit target share in four straight games, and for a team that doesn’t throw that often, that’s not particularly inspiring.
- Kenneth Gainwell ($3,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Gainwell has gotten a decent bit of work in recent weeks, but the Eagles have been winning those games pretty comfortably. He’s played on less than 20% of the team’s snaps in games that have been competitive, so he’s best used if you think the Eagles can win by more than the spread suggests.
- Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – The Commanders use a host of different bodies to round out their receiving corps. Zaccheaus doesn’t see a ton of routes most weeks – he was at just 30% in Week 10 – but he’s a focal point when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 27% of his routes run in four of his past five games.
- Jeremy McNichols ($2,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – With Robinson back for the Commanders, McNichols shouldn’t see more than a couple of snaps.
- Dyami Brown ($1,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Brown was on the field for a season-low 19% of pass plays last week, and he’s been targeted on just 14% of his routes run for the year.
- Luke McCaffrey ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – McCaffrey saw the most snaps at WR3 last week, running a route on 49% of the team’s dropbacks. That appears to give him a bit more value than guys like Zaccheaus and Brown.
- Grant Calcaterra ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – With Goedert returning to the lineup last week, Calcaterra dipped to just a 33% route participation. However, he still saw a target, and tight ends are always a threat to score around the goal line.
