NFL Week 10 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 48.5 points.
The Dolphins have had a disappointing season, but it’s not entirely their fault. Tua Tagovailoa has missed most of the year with a concussion, and they’re a completely different team with their starting quarterback in the lineup. They’ve lost both games since he returned in Week 8, but they were by a combined four points to the Bills and Cardinals.
Meanwhile, the Rams have rattled off three straight wins. Like the Dolphins, they’ve gotten significantly healthier over the past few weeks, with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp both returning to the lineup. When the Rams’ offense has been at full strength since the start of last season, they’ve been one of the most potent units in football.
Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Both of these offenses are capable of hanging plenty of points on the scoreboard, but there aren’t a ton of true fantasy studs in this contest. Kyren Williams headlines this slate at $10,600 on DraftKings. He broke out as a superstar fantasy RB last season, and he’s pretty much picked up right where he left off. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was last year, but he’s still been the seventh-best RB in fantasy in PPR scoring per game.
There were some questions about what Williams’ workload would look like after the team selected Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. That said, those concerns were clearly overblown. Williams has been a true workhorse all season, racking up 78% of the team’s rushing attempts. He’s been even busier of late, playing on 99% of the team’s snaps and handling 92% of their carries last week vs. the Seahawks.
Williams is also one of the league’s premier touchdown scorers. He’s had 13 carries from inside the five-yard line this season, which is tied with Derrick Henry and Kareem Hunt for the most in football. He’s turned those into seven touchdowns, and he has 10 scores for the year overall. The Dolphins have allowed an average of 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game this season – the sixth-worst mark in football – so Williams is a good bet to find the paint on Monday.
The only real red flag in Williams’ profile is his utilization as a pass-catcher. He’s not prominently involved, posting just a 13% target share for the year.
That said, that hurts him much more in games where the Rams are playing from behind. The Rams are listed as small favorites on Monday, and Williams has averaged a +8.54 Plus/Minus as a favorite since the start of last season (per the Trends tool). That figure dips to +3.95 as a dog, and he’s averaged 6.72 fewer fantasy points per game in that split.
Unless you think the Dolphins are going to pull ahead early, Williams stands out as one of the safer plays on the slate. He’s scored 14.4 DraftKings points in all but one game this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six.
Tyreek Hill is the other fantasy stud in this matchup, but he enters at far less than 100%. He missed practice on both Thursday and Friday, and he’s currently listed as questionable vs. the Rams. The most recent reports have him as a true “game-time decision,” so it’s possible he’s not in the lineup at all.
Even if he does play, there’s no guarantee he finishes the game or is as effective as usual. That gives him significantly more risk than usual.
That said, there’s no denying his upside, especially at a cheaper price tag than usual. His targets have been down slightly since Tagovailoa returned to the lineup, but he was one of the busiest receivers in football with Tagovailoa under center last year. He posted a 32% target share and 43% of the team’s air yards, so he’s capable of doing some serious damage.
Hill’s price tag has decreased to $10,000, so there’s some legit buy-low appeal. He had 29.0 DraftKings points in his first game of the season, and his ceiling remains among the highest at the position.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Splitting the top two receivers for the Rams is easier said than done. Both Kupp and Nacua have had some huge performances over the past few seasons, but we haven’t seen them on the field a ton together in 2024-25. Nacua has yet to eclipse a 65% route participation for the year after being limited in two games and getting ejected in a third.
That said, the limited results we do have a very promising for both players. Nacua has been targeted on 31% of his routes run this season, while Kupp checks in at 35%. Those might not hold over a bigger sample size, but the two figure to combine for the majority of Matthew Stafford’s pass attempts.
Kupp is slightly more expensive at $9,800, and he has a slight edge over Nacua in our NFL Models. That said, both players grade out as strong values in terms of projected Plus/Minus.
The biggest winner from Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup might be De’Von Achane. He’s now played four games with Tagovailoa this season, and he’s scored at least 23.0 DraftKings points in each of them.
He’s coming off his best game of the season last week vs. the Bills. He finished with 12 carries and eight targets, and he racked up 121 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. He’s had at least seven targets in all four games with Tagovailoa under center, so his work as a pass-catcher has been extremely consistent.
That makes him one of the best values of the day at just $9,400 on DraftKings. He’s not quite as valuable on FanDuel – where he doesn’t get a full fantasy point for each catch – but his $11,000 salary is even more egregious. He leads all players with a 90% Bargain Rating.
Both quarterbacks also stand out as strong targets. Tagovailoa is the more expensive of the two, and he’s scored at least 17.54 DraftKings points in two of his three full games. The Rams also stand out as a strong matchup, resulting in a +1.6 Opponent Plus/Minus.
That said, Tagovailoa will be on the road on Monday, which is not a spot where he’s historically thrived. He’s historically posted a -2.54 Plus/Minus in that split, and he’s averaged just 11.5 DraftKings points in primetime road games. Los Angeles doesn’t stand out as the most intimidating venue – the weather should be good at a minimum – but expectations for Tua should probably be limited.
Stafford is the more appealing QB target. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both games since his stud receivers returned to the lineup, including 25.76 DraftKings points at home vs. the Vikings in Week 9.
His salary has decreased to just $8,600 on DraftKings, which is simply way too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s scored at least 18.68 DraftKings points in all three games with Kupp and Nacua in the lineup, and the Rams have the superior implied team total as favorites.
Raheem Mostert has historically served as the 1B to Achane’s 1A in the Dolphins’ backfield. He’s handled 35% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, while Achane is at 43%.
That said, Mostert’s role is trending in the wrong direction. He was on the field for just 23% of the team’s snaps last week, which was his lowest mark of the season by a wide margin. Mostert has provided very little as a pass-catcher this season, so he needs a large share of the carries and touchdowns to potentially return value. That seems unlikely.
While Hill has been a disappointment this season, Jaylen Waddle has been a downright disaster. His production is way down, and so is his utilization. He’s managed just a 16% target share and 18% air yards share for the year, and he had just 7% of the team’s targets last week.
That’s obviously not encouraging, but Waddle has proven to be a talented pass-catcher in the past. The Dolphins don’t have a ton of other viable options outside of Hill and Achane, so he there’s no reason he can’t improve moving forward.
His price tag has dipped to just $6,600 for Monday Night Football, so he’s an interesting buy-low target. He has excellent correlation with Hill (+0.58), so stacking both with Tagovailoa has plenty of appeal.
DeMarcus Robinson flopped when thrust into a larger role this season, but he’s been a reliable No. 3 target with Kupp and Nacua healthy. He’s scored two touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and he had nine targets last week vs. the Seahawks.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. Jason Sanders is showing up as the most under-owned option relative to the optimal lineup sims in Sim Labs.
- Jonnu Smith ($4,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Smith has taken on a larger role in recent weeks, culminating with an 83% route participation last week. He’s been targeted on at least 21% of his routes run in four straight weeks, so he’s definitely a viable option at his current salary.
- Colby Parkinson ($3,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – With the Rams’ receiving corps back at full strength, it doesn’t leave a ton of work for the rest of the pass-catchers. Parkinson didn’t get a single target last week, and he was at just a 6% target share the week prior.
- Tutu Atwell ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Atwell is another player who is very tough to roster with Kupp and Nacua healthy. That said, his speed gives him more upside than someone like Parkinson.
- Jaylen Wright ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Wright had just nine snaps last week, but he saw six carries in that span.
- Odell Beckham ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Beckham has been eased into action this season, but he had a season-high three targets last week.
- Blake Corum ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Corum has played eight snaps or fewer in three straight games, including just one last week.
- Davis Allen ($200 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) – Allen saw a significant bump in snaps last week, and he earned three targets vs. the Seahawks. He’s the TE to target in Los Angeles.
