NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (November 10) for Lions vs. Texans Sunday Night Football

Could we have a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night? It’s possible. The Detroit Lions will head to Houston to take on the Texans. The Lions are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 49.5 points.

Detroit has been an absolute juggernaut this season. They had one slip-up in Week 2 vs. the Buccaneers, but they’ve pretty much dominated otherwise. They’re 7-1 and first in the league in scoring differential, and they’re a top-five team in EPA per play both offensively and defensively.

The Texans jumped out to a 5-1 record, but they’ve lost two of their past three games. However, they could be getting a bit of help on Sunday. Nico Collins has missed four straight games with an injury, but he has returned to practice and could suit up vs. Detroit. He’s had a massive impact on the team’s offensive production, so his return would give the team a significant boost.

Let’s dive into all of the top DFS options for Sunday Night Football.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Despite these being two good teams, there aren’t a ton of true fantasy “studs.” Amon-Ra St. Brown is the most expensive player on the slate, but he’s merely 10th among receivers in PPR points per game.

When the Lions do take to the air, St. Brown is their clear top target. He has a 29% target share, which is among the best marks in football. It’s the sixth-highest mark among receivers, so he’s a true alpha receiver.

However, the Lions just don’t need to pass all that often. They’ve averaged the third-fewest pass attempts per game, and they have a -7% Dropback Over Expectation (DBOE) for the year.

That’s had a significant impact on St. Brown’s volume. He’s averaged just 6.0 receptions per game this season, down from 7.4 last season. He’s also averaging fewer yards per target, so he’s plummeted from 94.7 to 58.0 yards per game.

The one positive with St. Brown is that he’s scoring more touchdowns. He has six through his first eight games, which puts him on pace for a new career high.

It’s possible he gets back in the end zone this week vs. the Texans. They’ve allowed 2.1 passing touchdowns per game, which is the second-worst mark in football. Both Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams scored vs. the Texans last week, and they’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.

It gives St. Brown a bit more upside than usual, especially with the Lions listed as small road favorites. If they can’t jump out to a huge lead – and are forced to throw the ball a bit more – St. Brown could be poised for one of his best games of the season.

Since returning from injury, Joe Mixon has been an outstanding source of fantasy value. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 26.4 DraftKings points in three of them.

Mixon has become one of the top early-down grinders in fantasy. He’s handled at least 83% of his team’s rushing attempts in three straight games, and he should continue to be among the league leaders in that department.

However, Mixon has one glaring red flag in his profile: he’s not a pass-catcher. It’s not that he can’t catch passes – he’s had as many as 60 catches in a season with the Bengals – but he’s not being used in that way by the Texans. He’s played on just 11% of the long-down and distance snaps this season, which makes him a bit game-script-dependent. If the Texans fall behind early, Mixon probably won’t see as many snaps as usual. That makes him a bit risky with the Texans getting points vs. the Lions. Still, Mixon has the top median projection on the slate, so he’s definitely worth some consideration.

Finally, Collins is also priced in this range, and his status will be important to monitor heading into lineup lock. I’m tentatively expecting Collins to sit – it’s very rare for a player to return to the lineup just one week after being activated off IR – but he’s officially questionable.

However, Collins was the No. 1 receiver in fantasy before suffering his injury. That would make him a potential value at just $10,000 if he’s able to suit up. He’d still be very risky in that scenario – there’s a chance he’s limited or used more as a decoy – but there’s some upside, too.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

C.J. Stroud has been priced in the stud tier for most of the season, but he’s dipped to just $9,800 for Sunday Night Football. That makes him an intriguing buy-low option. Stroud hasn’t been at his best this season, but he’s still one of the most talented passers in the NFL.

Getting back Collins would be a huge boost to Stroud’s stock. In five games with Collins in the lineup, Stroud has averaged 277 passing yards per game. He also threw for at least one touchdown in each contest. Without Collins, Stroud has dipped to just 188.5 passing yards per game, and he’s been held out of the endzone in two of his past three games.

Stroud’s matchup is also a lot friendlier than last week’s. The Lions aren’t a bad defense – they’re fifth in pass defense EPA – but they’re not as good in terms of fantasy points allowed. The fact that the Lions are so efficient offensively means that opposing teams typically have to play from behind, which is a positive for opposing passing attacks.

Jared Goff has been extremely efficient this season, but like his top pass-catcher, his volume has been muted. He’s thrown 25 passes or fewer in six straight games, which is simply not going to get the job done for fantasy purposes. Goff has still managed to post some strong fantasy games during that stretch, but he’s needed big plays and touchdowns to get there.

That said, just because Goff hasn’t had to throw the ball recently doesn’t mean every game will look like that. The Lions are favored by less than usual, and when the Lions aren’t blowing out opponents, Goff still has plenty of upside. He has a game with 55 pass attempts this season, and he leads all players on this slate in ceiling projection. The Texans have had a decent pass defense this season, but this all comes down to volume. If Goff gets to 30+ passes, he has a good chance to return value.

With the Lions being so run-heavy, it stands to reason that they have a stud running back. Unfortunately, that’s not really the case. The Lions utilize two different options at the position, which keeps both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery from being truly elite. Gibbs is sixth among running backs in PPR points per game, while Montgomery is 15th.

Gibbs is the more expensive player, and his pass-catching prowess makes him the superior target in the Lions’ backfield. The two players have split the carries virtually right down the middle – Montgomery has 45% of the carries, Gibbs has 44% – but Gibbs has the superior target share. He’s also the more explosive player, ranking tied for sixth in the league with five runs of 20+ yards.

The one area where Montgomery excels is around the goal line. He has 63% of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line, and he’s been a touchdown-scoring machine since signing with the Lions. He’s scored at least once in more than 75% of his contests with Detroit, so he’s always a good bet to punch one in.

Ultimately, both players stand out as decent options on this slate. The one thing that makes this backfield situation different than most is that playing both together is viable. Gibbs and Montgomery have a correlation of -0.12, and while that’s not great, it’s way better than you’d typically expect for two running backs. In the right game scripts, the Lions will run the ball enough that both players can provide value.

Tank Dell started the year as the Texans’ No. 3 receiver, but things have changed recently. Collins has missed the past four games, while Stefon Diggs is done for the year with an ACL injury. If Collins is unable to return vs. the Lions, Dell is the last man standing by default.

Dell was one of the most explosive receivers in the league as a rookie, averaging 15.1 yards per reception with seven touchdowns in just 11 games. Unfortunately, he’s been unable to duplicate that success this season. His yards per catch is down to just 11.8, while he’s averaging roughly two fewer yards per target.

However, Dell’s volume saw a nice spike last week vs. the Jets. He had a 32% target share, which was his best mark of the season. He managed to catch six passes for 126 yards against a tough Jets secondary.

If he can maintain that role vs. the Lions, he could be poised for another strong performance. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, and the Texans’ receivers are tied for second in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

Jameson Williams will return to the lineup this week following a two-game suspension, and it will be interesting to see what his role is. He was operating as the team’s clear No. 2 option in the passing attack before being suspended, racking up a 17% target share. He’s also been their clear big-play threat in the passing attack, leading the team with a 32% air yards share.

That said, our projections are not very bullish on Williams in this matchup. There’s a chance he’s not quite as involved in his first game back, and that would be a killer in a low-volume offense.

What has happened to Sam LaPorta? He was the best tight end in fantasy last season despite rookies having a notoriously steep learning curve. However, he hasn’t looked like the same player this year.

Part of that stems from the team’s offensive philosophy, but LaPorta has seen a drop in rate stats as well. His target share sits at just 12% for the year, and he’s had just 10% of the team’s air yards. Overall, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just two of eight games, and he’s had more than 12.2 DraftKings points only once.

As bad as LaPorta has been, Dalton Schultz has been even worse. He’s yet to post a positive Plus/Minus, despite the team being without key receivers for nearly half the year.

That said, Schultz still has some appeal if Collins is inactive. Schultz has seen at least six targets in four of his past five games, and his salary is down to just $5,600 vs. the Lions. The biggest issue is that he hasn’t scored a touchdown. If he can find the paint, he would almost certainly return value at his current price tag.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. The Texans defense is showing up as the most under-owned option in this game per Sim Labs.
• Xavier Hutchinson ($4,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Hutchinson was second among the Texans’ receivers last week with a 70% route participation. He could be a viable value play if Collins is ruled out, particularly on FanDuel.
• Robert Woods ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Woods didn’t see quite as many snaps as Hutchinson, but he was targeted on 13% of his routes run. That trailed only Dell among the team’s receivers.
• Dare Ogunbowale ($3,000 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Ogunbowale is the team’s pass-catching specialist out of the backfield. If you think the Texans get blown out by the Lions, he could provide more value than usual.
• Kalif Raymond ($2,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Raymond isn’t typically on the field very often, but when he is, he’s a frequent target. He’s been targeted on 17% of his routes run for the year, and he’s had a double-digit target share in three of his past four games.
• John Metchie ($2,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – Metchie is another wide receiver who could garner some attention if Collins sits. He had a 67% route participation in Week 9.
• Tim Patrick ($2,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) – Patrick saw a big spike in routes over the past two weeks, but he’ll likely play less with Williams returning to the lineup. Still, he’s a talented player, and he grades out as one of the stronger values in this price range.
• Brock Wright ($2,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) – Wright will occasionally get loose for a big play, but he’s the No. 2 TE in a low-volume passing attack.
• Cade Stover ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) – Stover’s role has grown slightly since the start of the year, but he’s still being capped around a 30% route participation most weeks. That’s not really enough to make him viable.