NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Sep. 26): Sterling Shepard, Discount Alpha

NFL Week 3 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. The Giants are listed as one-point home favorites, while the total sits at a pedestrian 39.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Saquon Barkley is the clear top stud in this matchup. He struggled last week vs. the Panthers, but he reminded everyone of just how good he can be when healthy in Week 1. He racked up 164 rushing yards and a score while averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, and he added six catches for 30 yards as a receiver.

His advanced metrics have also been extremely favorable. He’s operating as a true workhorse running back, playing on 83% of the RB snaps to start the year. He’s also tallied 68% of the rushing attempts, a 74% route participation, and a 20% target market share. Finally, Barkley has forced the 10th-most missed tackles per attempt, and he posted the second-fastest ball-carrier sprint speed in Week 1.

The Cowboys’ defense is solid, but they have been more vulnerable against the run than the pass to start the year. He leads our NFL Models in median and ceiling projection, making him a solid option in all formats.

CeeDee Lamb leads the way for the Cowboys, and he’s blossomed into a true alpha receiver with Amari Cooper now in Cleveland. He leads the team in both target share (31%) and air yards share (41%), both of which are outstanding marks for a top receiver.

There also doesn’t appear to be much cause for concern with Cooper Rush at quarterback. He had 11 targets with Rush at the helm in Week 2, which was the same mark he posted in Week 1. Lamb hasn’t posted a huge game yet, but better results are on the horizon.

The Giants could be the perfect spot for him to break out. They lost their best corner in the offseason, and the Giants don’t really have anyone to fear in the secondary. Pro Football Focus gives him the ninth-largest matchup advantage at the receiver position this week, so he checks a lot of boxes.

Speaking of Rush, he held his own last week vs. the Bengals. His fantasy numbers don’t jump off the page, but he completed 19 of 31 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown. That was enough to lead his team to an upset victory. He was much better in his only other career start, racking up 22.2 DraftKings points last year vs. the Vikings.

Still, Rush ranks just 28th out of 33 quarterbacks per PFF, so he’s not exactly Dak Prescott 2.0. Quarterbacks are always going to have appeal at a sub-$10k price tag in the single-game format, but he’s a mediocre option in terms of projected Plus/Minus.