NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Sep. 12): Will Russ Cook in Homecoming?

After some dynamite island matchups to start the year, Monday Night Football is a bit of a letdown. The Denver Broncos will square off with the Seattle Seahawks at 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Broncos are listed as 6.5-point road favorites.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The big storyline in this contest is the return of Russell Wilson to Seattle. Russ won a Super Bowl with the Seahawks, but it feels like he was never fully appreciated by the organization. They undoubtedly failed to utilize his full skill set. In his prime, Wilson was among the most efficient quarterbacks in football, but his volume numbers were mediocre at best.

It remains to be seen what Wilson’s numbers will look like in Denver. He remains one of the most efficient passers in the league – he ranked third in adjusted yards per attempt last season – but the Broncos were even more run-heavy than the Seahawks last year. They had the 10th-highest run frequency in 2021-22, and they were basically league-average in that regard in one-score games.

Still, you don’t trade for a player like Wilson unless you plan on featuring him, and he’ll have some quality receivers to lean on in Denver. The Seahawks also were drastically worse against the pass than against the run last year, so it’s the perfect matchup for him to debut.

Wilson doesn’t stand out from a value perspective on this slate, but that’s simply because he’s so much more expensive than every other player. He easily tops THE BLITZ in both median and ceiling projections, making him a tough fade.

Javonte Williams is the other stud option in this contest, and he’s one of the most talented running backs in the league. According to Sports Info Solutions, Williams had a broken + missed tackle rate of 17.2% last year, which was easily the best mark in football. No one else was even particularly close, with Rhamondre Stevenson coming in second at 14.3%.