NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 31): Bengals Receivers Are Underpriced

NFL Week 8 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bengals are listed as 3.5-point road favorites in this AFC North showdown, while the total sits at 45.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Joe Burrow headlines this slate, and he’s coming off a monster performance last week vs. the Falcons. He racked up 481 yards and three touchdowns, and he had over 300 passing yards in the first half alone. Burrow also added 20 rushing yards and a touchdown, his third straight week with a rushing score.

That said, the Falcons were arguably the best possible matchup for Burrow. They have an atrocious pass rush, which offsets the Bengals’ biggest weakness. Their offensive line has struggled against premier pass-rushing teams this season, but when Burrow has time, he typically picks apart opposing secondaries with surgical precision.

While Burrow is likely due for some regression, he draws another outstanding matchup this week. The Browns’ pass rush is a bit more formidable than the Falcons, but they still rank just 28th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA.

Burrow will also take the field as a favorite, which is a role he’s historically thrived in. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.25 in 16 career games in that situation, and he’s averaged nearly 2.5 more DraftKings points per game than he has as an underdog (per the Trends tool).

Burrow will have to overcome the loss of stud receiver Ja’Marr Chase, but he still owns the second-highest ceiling projection in THE BLITZ.

Nick Chubb is the most expensive option for the Browns, and he remains the most unheralded superstar running back in football. He leads the league with an average of 105.7 yards per game this season, and he’s averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. He’s averaged at least 5.0 yards per attempt in each of his five professional seasons, so he’s one of the most efficient runners in the history of the league.

However, he draws a tough matchup this week vs. the Bengals. They rank sixth in defensive DVOA this season, and they’re 10th against the run. The Browns are also underdogs in this spot, and Chubb doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table as a receiver. He has three targets or fewer in every game this season, so he’s very game script dependent. A 3.5-point spread isn’t overly concerning, but Chubb could be less involved than expected if the Browns fall behind early.

Chubb ultimately owns the lowest projected Plus/Minus in the stud tier, so he’s a bit overpriced on this slate.