NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 3): Death, Taxes, and Cooper Kupp

NFL Week 4 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers are currently listed as 1.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 42.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

These two division rivals played three times last year, with the 49ers winning both regular season contests. However, the Rams got the win when it mattered most, picking up a three-point victory in the NFC Championship.

The year may be different, but Cooper Kupp remains the same dominant fantasy force. He’s coming off a rare down performance in Week 3, finishing with just four catches for 44 yards, but he started the year with two monster performances. He had at least 14 targets in both games, and he responded with averages of 12 catches, 118 yards, and 1.5 touchdowns per game. Those were even better than his averages from last year when he won the receiving triple crown.

Kupp continues to serve as one of the busiest pass-catchers in football. His 35% target share through the first three weeks ranks second in the league, trailing only Mark Andrews’ mark of 36.5%. He’s also racked up 46.1% of the Rams’ air yards, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.

That said, the 49ers are an extremely tough matchup. They rank fifth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they’re third in adjusted sack rate. That could spell trouble against the Rams’ offensive line, which has been a weak spot this season.

Still, Kupp is capable of succeeding in any matchup. He racked up 11 catches for 142 yards vs. the 49ers in the postseason last year, and he had 34.8 DraftKings points when the Bills had seven sacks in Week 1. He leads THE BLITZ in median and ceiling projection by a comfortable margin, and he stands out as one of the best pure values on DraftKings as well.

Kupp will be catching passes from Matthew Stafford, and he’s had a tumultuous start to his season. He put together an outstanding year in his first season with the Rams, racking up 41 touchdowns while averaging 287.4 passing yards per game, but his play has fallen off drastically through the first three weeks. He ranks 23rd among quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game, putting him behind notable studs like Joe Flacco, Jacoby Brissett, and Baker Mayfield. Stafford also has two performances of 10.8 DraftKings points or less.

The matchup vs. the 49ers should impact him more than Kupp. He struggled in three matchups vs. the 49ers last year, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.84 (per the Trends tool). His worst performance came in his lone road game vs. the 49ers, where he finished with just 11.82 DraftKings points.

Quarterbacks are always going to have some appeal in the single-game format, but Stafford seems a bit too expensive given the matchup.