NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 24): Time to Sell Rhamondre Stevenson?

NFL Week 7 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots. The Patriots are listed as 8.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 40.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Calling any of the players studs in this contest is a bit of a stretch. Rhamondre Stevenson is the highest-priced player on DraftKings, and he had a stud-like workload last week vs. the Browns. He racked up 19 carries and five targets, and he finished with 25.1 DraftKings points.

Unfortunately, Damien Harris will make his return to the lineup vs. the Bears, which is going to cut into his rushing upside. Stevenson has had at least 86% of the snaps and 63% of the rushing attempts in back-to-back weeks, but he’s yet to total more than 14 carries in a game with Harris at full strength. Overall, Stevenson had 43 attempts through the first four weeks, while Harris racked up 53.

Stevenson should still provide some usability with his work in the passing game. He’s been the Patriots’ preferred pass-catching back all season, racking up a solid 13% target market share.

Ultimately, Stevenson is still the Patriots’ back to target for fantasy purposes, but not necessarily at his current price tag. His salary has been inflated to bell-cow status, and he simply doesn’t fit that description vs. the Bears.

David Montgomery is the Bears’ top running back, but he has some issues of his own. He has to deal with a challenge from Kahlil Herbert, who has simply been the more efficient player this season. Montgomery’s average of 4.0 yards per carry isn’t terrible, but it’s well below Herbert’s average of 6.4. If that continues, Herbert is going to eat into a larger portion of his workload.

That said, Montgomery’s workload remains intact for now. He’s played on at least 72% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks, and he’s racked up 27 carries in those contests. Herbert has just 11 in that time frame, and Montgomery also has the edge in both routes and targets in the passing game.

The biggest thing working in Montgomery’s favor is the matchup. The Patriots have been a major run funnel this season, ranking sixth in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA but merely 26th against the run. The Bears very rarely need an excuse for a run-heavy scheme, but they definitely have one in this spot. The Bears lead the league with a 58.81% run rate on the year, and they could be even more run-heavy than usual.