Week 7 comes to a close with a showdown in Minnesota between the 49ers and Vikings at 8:15 p.m. ET. The 49ers are listed as 7-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
A few injuries have had a big impact on this showdown slate, starting with Christian McCaffrey. He’s currently questionable with an oblique injury but claims he feels great. He was a limited participant in Saturday’s practice, but all signs point to him suiting up on Monday Night.
The matchup isn’t amazing, with Minnesota allowing the 11th-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs.
It’s unclear what the deal is with McCaffrey and this San Francisco backfield. Looking at betting odds, he has a 68.75% chance to score a touchdown, but his yardage props are noticeably lower than in past weeks. His backups also have some juice, with Eli Mitchell and Jordan Mason coming in with 45.45% and 33.9% chances to find the end zone.
My best guess is that the injury is likely to have little impact on McCaffrey’s efficiency, but he may see less work than usual. Mason played well behind him, but I’m expecting Mitchell to take the bulk of the work.
McCaffrey still profiles as a great play, but he’s not the usual “slam-dunk” click on 49ers’ showdown slates.
With Deebo Samuel out, the target volume will keep funneling in Brandon Aiyuk‘s direction. He caught four of ten targets for 76 yards last week but was close to a massive game.
He’s now been targeted on 30.8% of his routes, which is third among all receivers with over 100 routes. We’re not getting any type of discount on Aiyuk tonight, but he deserves to be this expensive. With Samuel off the field and Purdy under center, Aiyuk has seen a monstrous 28.4% target rate per route run. Minnesota is also allowing the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. Aiyuk looks like a great target on Monday night.
The quarterbacks come next, with Kirk Cousins leading the way. Cousins was subpar in his first game without Justin Jefferson this year, not reaching double-digit DraftKings points against the lowly Bears. He now gets a matchup against San Francisco, who ranks in the top five in pressure rate and yards per attempt allowed.
Cousins will likely be chucking it tonight, with Minnesota sitting as seven-point home underdogs. I’m curious to see how ownership shakes out, but I think he looks like a great option tonight despite the difficult matchup.
Last week was a game to forget for Brock Purdy, who completed less than 50% of his passes while averaging a paltry 4.6 yards per attempt.
This is a good bounce-back spot for Purdy in a dome against a soft defense. Minnesota loves to send extra rushers, as they simply can’t get any pressure without blitzing. They’re still barely getting home when they blitz, and Purdy has averaged 8.9 yards per attempt when opposing teams blitz and don’t get pressure. San Francisco also has numerous big-play threats who will be set up with massive YAC potential when Minnesota sends extra rushers.
This is 100% going to come back to bite me, but as of now, I prefer the three options in the $10,000 range to McCaffrey.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison come in more expensive, but I have to start with George Kittle. His splits with Deebo Samuel off of the field have been drastic. He’s averaged 25.2 fantasy points per game with him off the field over the past three years and just 11.5 with him playing.
He’s seen 23% of the team targets with Purdy under center and Samuel off of the field. This matchup also sets up great for Kittle despite Minnesota having solid numbers against tight ends,
Minnesota sends extra rushers at an extremely high clip, and Kittle leads the team in yards and catches against the blitz. He also ranks second among all tight ends in yards per route run when opposing teams send extra rushers. Kittle might be my favorite captain option on the slate.
Unsurprisingly, Hockenson led Minnesota in targets last week, catching six balls for 50 yards. He also was utilized more down the field, with a 33% share of team air yards.
This isn’t a prime spot for him, as the 49ers have allowed the lowest catch rate and yards per target to opposing tight ends. Volume trumps all, but it’s hard to expect a lot of efficiency from Hockenson in this spot.
Addison ran a route on every dropback last week, catching three of five targets for 28 yards and a touchdown. The matchup isn’t ideal, with San Francisco allowing less than seven yards per catch to opposing receivers.
However, he’s a strong bet to lead the receivers in targets and air yards.
Alexander Mattison reclaimed the lion’s share of the backfield touches last week, turning 22 touches into 72 yards. Minnesota is clearly souring on Cam Akers, and Mattison is going to benefit.
Sadly, this isn’t a spot where we can expect much efficiency from Mattison, with San Francisco allowing the 11th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing running backs.
K.J. Osborn saw five targets last week, catching four balls for 48 yards. He ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks, and that’s unlikely to change. He’s not as talented of a player as Addison, but he provides a solid discount and doesn’t project that differently. I do prefer Mattison for just $200 more.
I talked about the backfield earlier, but I view Jordan Mason as unplayable and Eli Mitchell as an intriguing salary saver. We don’t know how much McCaffrey will be limited, so Mitchell actually has to produce at this price tag.
Jauan Jennings has stayed the team’s slot man but could potentially see more target volume with Samuel sidelined. He hasn’t earned more than four targets in a game this season. I’ll likely pass, but he’s certainly viable.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Brandon Powell ($2,800 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Powell has quietly been solid for Minnesota, with a great 24% target rate per route run. He’s squarely in play in both cash games and tournaments.
- Ray-Ray McCloud III ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): McCloud will likely take on a near-every-down role with Samuel sidelined, as he did last week. He’s not a massive target-earner, but he’ll be out there a bunch at a very cheap tag.
- Ronnie Bell ($1,000 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Ronnie Bell likely won’t see too much work, but he’ll rotate in and has a very cheap tag. I prefer finding the $1,200 for McCloud, but Bell is certainly viable.
- Josh Oliver ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): If looking for a stone minimum punt, Josh Oliver is your guy. Minnesota doesn’t use 4 WR sets and has utilized two tight end sets before. He’ll be out there a little bit and is very cheap.
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