NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 17): Is Austin Ekeler Due For Regression?

NFL Week 6 wraps up with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers are currently listed as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Unsurprisingly, most of the stud options on this slate are going to come from the Chargers. The Broncos offense has been an abomination this season, ranking 31st in the league in points per game. They’ve scored 16 points or fewer in four of five games, and they lost last week’s contest despite surrendering zero touchdowns. That’s hard to accomplish.

The Chargers are led by quarterback Justin Herbert, who is having another quality season. He’s averaged just under 300 passing yards per game to go along with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. Overall, he ranks 10th at the position in fantasy points per game.

Herbert has also historically done some of his best work in prime time. He’s played in seven games starting at 8 p.m. ET or later, and he’s averaged 28.69 DraftKings points and a +6.82 Plus/Minus (per the Trends tool). That makes him the anti-Kirk Cousins.

However, Herbert draws a brutal matchup vs. the Broncos. As bad as their offense has been, they’re still 2-3 thanks to their elite defense. They rank second in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Herbert owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.9 on DraftKings. That’s the worst mark on the slate by a wide margin. Herbert struggled at home against the Broncos last season, finishing with just 17.68 DraftKings points.

Still, Herbert possesses one of the top median and ceiling projections in THE BLITZ, and he’s not the most expensive option on DraftKings. He’s the priciest option by $1,500 on FanDuel, so his DraftKings salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

Austin Ekeler is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and he’s coming off back-to-back monster performances. He’s scored at least 38.9 DraftKings points in two straight games, and he’s done it in different ways. He had six catches and three touchdowns two weeks ago, and he had 173 rushing yards last week vs. the Browns.

However, Ekeler has undoubtedly been a bit lucky to start the year. His workload isn’t what you would typically expect for a high-end fantasy running back. He’s played on just 57% of the snaps and garnered 48% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts through the first five weeks. He does make up for it with his work in the passing game and his touchdown-scoring upside, but he’s averaged just 17.2 expected DraftKings points per game (per Pro Football Focus). Overall, he’s exceeded his expected fantasy output by an average of +5.6 points per game, which is the third-highest mark among running backs.

With that in mind, it’s fair to expect some regression for Ekeler moving forward. Still, getting to around 20 fantasy points would represent significant regression compared to the last two weeks, and he’d still be a solid option at his current price tag.