NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Oct. 10): Hunter Renfrow is Back

NFL Week 5 concludes with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are currently listed as seven-point home favorites in this AFC West rivalry, while the total sits at 51.5 points.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

This game features plenty of offensive firepower, starting with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs’ signal-caller is off to another excellent start, racking up 1,106 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions through the first four weeks. He entered Week 4 as the No. 4 QB in fantasy, trailing only dual-threat monsters Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts.

Mahomes has some mobility, but he typically uses his legs to buy more time for his arm. He’s one of the most surgical passers in football, and his average of 8.47 adjusted yards per attempt ranks sixth in the league.

Mahomes has also historically done some of his best work against the Raiders. He’s averaged 28.16 DraftKings points in eight matchups vs. the Silver and Black, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +5.10 (per the Trends tool). The Raiders rank just 24th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA to start the year, and Mahomes leads the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.3. Ultimately, there’s no reason to expect much different from him on Monday.

Davante Adams has picked up in Las Vegas right where he left off in Green Bay. He scored a touchdown in each of his first three games, and while he was held out of the end zone last week, he still finished with nine catches for 101 yards.

Adams also remains one of the biggest target hogs in the league. He entered Week 4 with a 32.2% target market share, good for the fifth-highest mark in football.

Adams is particularly potent near the goal line, which is another good sign for his fantasy prospects. His target share increases to 42% inside the red zone, and he leads the team with two touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line.

He should be able to do some damage against the Chiefs’ cornerbacks in this matchup. They rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and 31st against No. 1 receivers. Pro Football Focus credits him with the fifth-largest matchup advantage at the position this week, so it’s a great spot for another big Adams performance.