Week 9 caps off with a big AFC matchup between the Jets and Chargers at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chargers are listed as 3.5-point road favorites, while the total sits at 41 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
Try Our New SimLabs Tool!
We’re excited to announce the launch of our new NFL DFS simulations tool! Try SimLabs for FREE while it’s still in beta.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Tonight’s stud section is jam-packed, with Austin Ekeler leading the way. This Jets defense is stout, but they’ve been vulnerable against running backs. On a yards-per-carry basis, New York has been solid, allowing the 13th-fewest. However, they allow the fourth-most receiving fantasy points to opposing backs.
New York funnels targets to running backs, and Justin Herbert is more than comfortable targeting Ekeler. He’s coming off of an eight-target performance last week, catching seven balls for 94 yards and a touchdown.
Herbert is coming off of a solid performance against Chicago, falling two yards shy of the 300-yard bonus but throwing three touchdowns en route to 24.02 DraftKings points.
This matchup is worrisome, as New York has allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve held Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes to pedestrian games already this year. Herbert had a solid performance against a great Dallas defense (20.08 DraftKings points) but flopped against Kansas City (12.86 DraftKings points).
Keenan Allen comes in right below Ekeler and Herbert in price and is going against a daunting New York secondary that has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. Allen moves around enough and sees enough slot snaps that he won’t be across from Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed all night.
We saw Dallas move CeeDee Lamb into the slot a lot against the Jets, where he caught six passes for 67 yards. Allen’s ceiling may be limited with how stout New York has been against receivers, but he isn’t out of consideration.
Moving to the Jets’ side, Breece Hall comes in as the most expensive option and has taken an elite workload over the past three weeks. He’s seen 22, 12, and 12 carries over the past three games, but the biggest development has been his passing game usage. He’s seen three, five, and nine targets over the past three games.
This isn’t the same abysmal Chargers’ run defense, as they’ve allowed the 10th-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs. Similar to Ekeler’s outlook, Hall’s most likely path to success is through the air. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most receiving fantasy points per game to opposing backs.
I’m confident in Hall in this spot, and he’s a priority for me.
Garrett Wilson comes in next, and sooner or later, we’re going to see him erupt. He’s seen 12 and 13 targets over the past two weeks, posting 17 and 20.6 DraftKings points.
The Chargers have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers and have gotten trounced by WR1s. It’s always scary rostering one of Zach Wilson‘s pass-catchers, but this matchup is amazing for Garrett.
Zach Wilson comes in very cheap, and the Chargers have allowed the most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Something has to give here. The matchup couldn’t be better, but Wilson hasn’t been able to get much going in the fantasy department (or any department). He had a solid 20.2-point performance against Kansas City but has been below 15 DraftKings points in every other game and below 10 three times.
My initial plan is to prioritize Hall and Garrett Wilson in order to soak up most of New York’s offensive output.
Our new SimLabs tool likes Hall and Wilson (depending on your settings) when you run a set of 150 lineups.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange is pretty barren tonight, with Gerald Everett being the first viable option at $5,600 on DraftKings. He returns this week after missing Week 8 and is reprising his semi-appetizing role. He’s reached double-digit DraftKings points in each of his last two games, practically only because he scored in both games.
New York has given up some solid scores against tight ends, but I’m still not too interested in Everett.
Allen Lazard is currently questionable with a knee injury but is expected to suit up on Monday night. He’s been practically useless from a fantasy perspective, eclipsing eight DraftKings points once and yet to catch more than three balls in a game.
Quentin Johnston should be thrust into a near-every-down role with Joshua Palmer out, and he looks like a popular value play tonight. He caught five of six targets for 50 yards last week, posting his first viable fantasy score.
In smaller field contests, I’d likely avoid Johnston, as he’s going to be very popular but hasn’t shown much production. In larger fields, he’s a fine play.
Donald Parham Jr. thrived without Gerald Everett in the lineup, catching four of five targets for 43 yards and a touchdown last Sunday Night. It’s hard to be too excited about Parham with Everett back.
On the other side, Tyler Conklin does pique my interest. Prior to last week, Conklin saw between four and six targets in five straight games. He gets a great matchup tonight, as the Chargers have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends on the season.
Joshua Kelley is somewhat appealing with his price tag dropping, as he’ll see some carries between the 20s and can break a long one. He’s not a priority, but he’s a fine value option.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Simi Fehoko ($600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): There are a lot of viable cheap options tonight, with Fehoko leading the way. Fehoko ran a route on 20% of the dropbacks last week, with a 25% target rate per route run. He’s definitely attractive in tournaments as a cheap option.
- Michael Carter ($200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Michael Carter is still being utilized enough by the Jets, with at least one carry in four straight games, and has the potential to see a handful of targets.
- Derius Davis ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): With all of the receiver injuries, Derius Davis has the potential to see his role increase, and even if he doesn’t, he’s still seen schemed touches repeatedly this year.
- Randall Cobb ($200 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Randall Cobb hasn’t done much this year, but he’s seen a handful of targets. He doesn’t boast much of a ceiling, but you don’t need much production at his price tag.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NFL DFS Week 8 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections
Daily Fantasy Football Week 8 NFL DFS Stacks and Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel
NFL DFS Week 9 DraftKings Main Slate Look Ahead: Early Values in Our Projections
NFL Fantasy Pick’ems for Bills-Jets on Monday Night Football
