NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Monday, Nov. 21): James Conner is an RB1

NFL Week 11 wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers are listed as eight-point favorites in a neutral site game, while the total sits at 43.5.

In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.

Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Christian McCaffrey is the most expensive option on this slate, and he posted a massive stat line in his second game with the 49ers. He racked up nearly 150 scrimmage yards and eight catches, and he added receiving, rushing, and passing touchdowns. He became the first player with the touchdown trifecta since LaDainian Tomlinson all the way back in 2006.

However, things changed a bit for McCaffrey in Week 10. The team got two key players back in their lineup in Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell, and it impacted McCaffrey’s workload. He dipped from 75% of the team’s rushing attempts in Week 8 to just 34% in Week 10, while his target share dipped from 36% to 21%. McCaffrey still finished with 17.7 DraftKings points, but his fantasy stock took a major hit with his updated workload.

The Cardinals have been middle of the pack in terms of rush defense this season, and McCaffrey owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.5 on DraftKings. It’s hard to get excited about him at his current price tag, but he still owns the top ceiling projection in THE BLITZ.

The big question for the Cardinals is who will be under center. Kyler Murray missed last week’s contest with a hamstring injury, and he’s currently considered a game-time decision.

If he’s able to suit up, he’s likely going to be operating at less than 100% vs. a stout 49ers defense. They rank eighth in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and that probably undersells how good this unit is. They pitched a shutout last week in the second half against the Chargers, and they limited the Rams to 14 points the week before.

It’s hard to envision a hobbled Murray having a ton of success in that matchup. Murray has scored 16.38 DraftKings points or fewer in his previous two games with the 49ers, and adding in an injury certainly isn’t going to help.

If Murray sits, then Colt McCoy will make his second consecutive start. He had a typical McCoy start in his first outing of the year: 234 yards, one touchdown, zero interceptions, and 13.92 DraftKings points. That was enough to get his team a win, but it’s not nearly enough to pay off his current salary.

All the same negatives with Murray also apply to McCoy, except McCoy isn’t nearly as good of a player. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus in this tier in THE BLITZ, which is rare for a quarterback.