Week 11 closes with a Super Bowl rematch at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Chiefs are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
This is one of the most star-studded showdown slates that we’ve had in a while, with the quarterbacks leading the way. Patrick Mahomes comes in as the most expensive player tonight, and he posted two middling performances prior to Kansas City’s bye.
This Eagles’ defense was in much better shape at the time of last year’s Super Bowl, where Mahomes threw for 182 yards and three touchdowns on just 27 attempts, while scrambling for 44 yards.
Philadelphia has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. They’re also running man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, while Mahomes ranks second in yards per attempt and third in passer rating against man coverage.
Jalen Hurts has been a man on a mission for fantasy purposes this year, with 20+ DraftKings points in every game besides Week 1. He had been battling a knee injury, but he got a week off due to the bye and is not on the injury report.
Hurts was a monster in the Super Bowl, with 304 yards and a touchdown through the air, and 70 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Kansas City tried some different coverages in that game, but Hurts diced them all up. They’re running man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league this year. They’re also dialing up a lot of blitzes, which Hurts has had a little bit of trouble with. However, he’s still averaging 7.6 yards per attempt under pressure. Both quarterbacks should have success tonight.
The Chiefs’ deployment of man coverage is great news for A.J. Brown, who has shredded man coverage time and time again as I’ve been consistently highlighting. He has the highest target share in the league against man coverage at 48%.
He’s found the end zone four times in his past three games, with over 100 receiving yards in six of his past seven. Kansas City has been pretty elite against WR1s this season, but I’m bullish on Brown in this spot.
I hope you’re ready to see a whole lot of Taylor Swift on the broadcast due to Travis Kelce because I’m sure not. Kelce may be winning off of the field, but he’s totaled just 16.2 DraftKings points over the last two games.
The Eagles have allowed the seventh-most DraftKings points to opposing tight ends, and Kelce is the top dog at the position. He had 81 yards and a touchdown on six catches in the Super Bowl, and this Philly defense lost multiple linebackers and safeties that made them formidable against tight ends last year.
Kelce always seems to have a knack for the end zone on the biggest stages. All four of these studs are very appealing tonight.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
The midrange is jam-packed as well, with DeVonta Smith leading the way. Last year it really seemed like a 1A and 1B situation with him and A.J. Brown, but Smith may just be the number two now.
However, Dallas Goedert missing this game may be the elixir that Smith needs for a ceiling performance. Since the start of last year, he’s seen a 30% target share with Goedert off the field.
It’s easy to make the case for Smith in tournaments, as he’s priced too close to the top studs for his ownership to get too high. Kansas City has been good against WR1s, and Goedert is out, which leaves Smith as the most logical benefactor. I’m bullish on Brown’s usage and talent despite the tough shadow coverage from L’Jarius Sneed.
D’Andre Swift is the lead man in this Philadelphia backfield, and he’s seen 17 or more touches in eight straight games. Kansas City is allowing the second-most yards per carry to opposing backs. It’s tough to sift through this midrange, but of the top four options in Smith, Swift, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco, Swift is my favorite.
I’m a fan of Rashee Rice as a player, but he’s a little overpriced for this showdown slate. His target volume is a little shakey, usually between four to six per game. He still isn’t an every-down player, as the Chiefs rotate their wide receivers.
I prefer Isiah Pacheco despite the tough matchup. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs. We’re going to need Pacheco to find the end zone, as it’s unlikely he’s extremely efficient with his touches against this defense.
Jerick McKinnon is also overpriced, with no more than five opportunities in a game all season. He sees some schemed usage in the red zone, but even one short catch for a touchdown likely isn’t enough to pay off his tag.
Kenneth Gainwell plays behind Swift, handling a few carries and the majority of the passing down work. He’s viable in builds that are centered around Kansas City taking a big lead.
The rest of the Kansas City receivers are unsurprisingly a dumpster fire. Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads the team in routes run but has seen less than 10% of team targets.
Justin Watson is likely my favorite option, with a cheap tag and coming off of a career-high route participation prior to the bye. Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney are kind of playing the same role. They see schemed touches with limited snaps. I wouldn’t play them in the same line, but playing one or the other is fine.
Skyy Moore saw a season-low snap share prior to the bye and is not someone I’m interested in tonight.
Jack Stoll will likely see the majority of the tight end work with Goedert sidelined. It’s unclear how much he’ll actually be used, as tight ends have rarely performed in Philly when Goedert has been out.
Julio Jones and Olamide Zaccheaus have rotated as Philadelphia’s wide receiver three, with Zaccheaus seeing more work despite a cheaper tag, making him my preferred option.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Noah Gray ($1,800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Noah Gray has quietly had a solid role, running a route on 52% of the dropbacks this year. His price is very cheap, which is appealing with how many strong high-priced selections there are.
- Grant Calcaterra ($200 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel): It’s unclear how the Philadelphia tight end rotation will shake out, but Calcaterra will likely mix in at the minimum price.
